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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOC IDA research note 06-02-09.pdf Please refer to pages 2-3 of this report for detailed disclosure and certification information. RESEARCH NOTE Institutional Equity Research IDACORP, INC. June 2, 2009 IDA – NYSE Rating: NEUTRAL Price: (6/2/09) $24.51 Price Targets: 12-18 month: $24 5-year: $35 Industry: Utilities James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA 406.791.7230 jbellessa@dadco.com Coalition Challenges Proposed Langley Gulch Facility • Joint motion to stay filed. On May 29th, intervenors in the case of Idaho Power’s request for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) to build the Langley Gulch plant (a 300-megawatt combined-cycle generating facility) filed a joint motion with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (IPUC) to stay the proceedings for at least ten months. • Challenge based on several issues. The group of intervenors asserted in the filing that “significant and unforeseen events have taken place since Idaho Power initially filed its application. Any single one of these events would be sufficient cause… to seek to slow down the company’s forced march to seek Commission action on its request for a CPCN.” Questions were also raised about Idaho Power’s power resource mix and the need for the project, given reduced electricity demand due to the recession. • Delay could create charges for utility. Although the intervenors expressed their belief that Idaho Power will have little difficulty in renegotiating the terms and deadline of its turbine contract with Siemens, a delay or cancellation would most likely result in penalty charges being incurred by the utility. Depending on Siemens’ willingness to renegotiate the contract, a disruption in the schedule could place all or part of Idaho Power’s $9 million deposit in jeopardy (no additional payments on the turbines are scheduled until September 1st). Although a complete cancellation of the turbine contract remains unlikely in our view, we estimate the impact of such a loss to be in the order of ~$0.12 per share. • Decision expected in mid-June. The deadline for Idaho Power’s response to the motion is June 12th, with an IPUC decision expected as early as June 15th. • Maintaining rating and price target. We are maintaining our 12-18 month target price of $24, or ~10x our 2010 EPS estimate. At the current share price, we are maintaining a NEUTRAL rating. D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved. 2 Required Disclosures D.A. Davidson & Co. expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. D.A. Davidson & Co. is a full service investment firm that provides both brokerage and investment banking services. James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA, the research analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this report, will receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) D.A. Davidson & Co.’s investment banking revenue. However, D.A. Davidson & Co.’s analysts are not directly compensated for involvement in specific investment banking transactions. I, James L. Bellessa, Jr., CFA, attest that (i) all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the common stock of the subject company, and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Ratings Information D.A. Davidson & Co. Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform Risk adjusted return potential Over 15% total return expected on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months >0-15% return potential on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Likely to remain flat or lose value on a risk adjusted basis over next 12-18 months Distribution of Ratings (as of 3/31/09) Buy Hold Sell Corresponding Institutional Research Ratings Buy Neutral Underperform and Distribution 47% 47% 6% Corresponding Private Client Research Ratings Outperform Market Perform Underperform and Distribution 86% 9% 5% Distribution of Combined Ratings 51% 44% 6% Distribution of companies from whom D.A. Davidson & Co. has received compensation for investment banking services in last 12 mos. Institutional Coverage 2% 3% 9% Private Client Coverage 0% 0% 0% Distribution of Combined Investment Banking 2% 3% 8% D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Rating Scale (maintained since 7/9/02): Buy, Neutral, Underperform D.A. Davidson & Co. Two Centerpointe Drive, Suite 400 • Lake Oswego, Oregon 97035 • (503) 603-3000 • (800) 755-7848 • www.dadavidson.com Copyright D.A. Davidson & Co., 2009. All rights reserved. 3 Target prices are our Institutional Research Department’s evaluation of price potential over the next 12-18 months and 5 years, based upon our assessment of future earnings and cash flow, comparable company valuations, growth prospects and other financial criteria. Certain risks may impede achievement of these price targets including, but not limited to, broader market and macroeconomic fluctuations and unforeseen changes in the subject company’s fundamentals or business trends. Other Disclosures Information contained herein has been obtained by sources we consider reliable, but is not guaranteed and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. Any opinions expressed are based on our interpretation of data available to us at the time of the original publication of the report. These opinions are subject to change at any time without notice. Investors must bear in mind that inherent in investments are the risks of fluctuating prices and the uncertainties of dividends, rates of return and yield. Investors should also remember that past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance and D.A. Davidson & Co. makes no guarantee, express or implied, as to future performance. Investors should note this report was prepared by D.A. Davidson & Co.’s Institutional Research Department for distribution to D.A. Davidson & Co.’s institutional investor clients and assumes a certain level of investment sophistication on the part of the recipient. Readers, who are not institutional investors or other market professionals, should seek the advice of their individual investment advisor for an explanation of this report’s contents, and should always seek such advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. Further information and elaboration will be furnished upon request.