20120416AVU to Clearwater Paper CW_PR_1 Attach B.pdf

IPUC Docket No. GNR-E-11-03
Avoided Costs - IRP Methodology
December 15, 2011
Clint Kalich
Manager of Resource Planning & Analysis
CW_PR_1 Attachment B Page 1 of 5
Updated 2011 IRP Modeling Assumptions
No National Carbon Legislation
Lower Natural Gas Prices (-$1.25/dth)
Lower Electricity Prices (-$5.25/MWh)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
20
2
1
20
2
2
20
2
3
20
2
4
20
2
5
20
2
6
20
2
7
20
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8
20
2
9
20
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0
20
3
1
20
3
2
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Northwest Energy Prices
Mid-Columbia (Flat)
Stanfield
20-Yr Nominal Levelized Prices
Mid-Columbia-$47.62 per MWhStanfield-$5.53 per Dth
CW_PR_1 Attachment B Page 2 of 5
Resource On-Peak Capacity Contribution
Base Load
–Generates in both winter and summer
–Provides system capacity
–Reduced by 7% for operating reserves
Solar
–Winter peak occurs when sun is down
–No capacity credit
Wind
–Wind portfolio not diversified enough to contribute capacity
–No capacity credit
Canal Drop Hydro
–No generation in the winter
–No capacity credit
CW_PR_1 Attachment B Page 3 of 5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Energy 65 106 87 84 55 17 19 (40)(57)(35)(89)(109)(92)(193)(379)(371)(416)(437)(430)(479)
Winter 734 718 523 400 455 349 306 112 21 (66)(160)(188)(226)(275)(571)(603)(642)(669)(705)(750)
Summer 92 196 111 51 141 111 7 (33)(56)(115)(137)(144)(204)(235)(471)(526)(547)(555)(612)(638)
REC's 52 53 55 9 8 8 7 -(8)(45)(46)(47)(48)(49)(50)(51)(52)(53)(55)(56)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
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Annual Load and Resource Positions
Planning Margin Methodology
Energy planning: 10th % for hydro and 90th % for weather
Capacity planning: 18-hour, 3-day event including weather
variation, forced outages, operating reserves, regulation, and
load following – a total margin of 24%/27% winter/summer
Given dual-peaking nature of Avista positions, capacity value is given
only to resources reducing both winter and summer needs

Avista Load and Resource Positions
CW_PR_1 Attachment B Page 4 of 5
Year
Market
($/MWh)
Capacity
($/kW-yr)
Market
($/MWh)
Capacity
($/kW-yr)
Market
($/MWh)
Capacity
($/kW-yr)
Market
($/MWh)
Capacity
($/kW-yr)
2013 33.48 0.00 34.72 0.00 32.78 0.00 30.42 0.00
2014 35.97 0.00 37.12 0.00 35.26 0.00 32.48 0.00
2015 37.59 0.00 38.79 0.00 36.81 0.00 34.23 0.00
2016 39.15 0.00 40.65 0.00 38.35 0.00 36.13 0.00
2017 42.33 0.00 43.90 0.00 41.50 0.00 39.28 0.00
2018 44.55 0.00 46.17 0.00 43.74 0.00 41.52 0.00
2019 46.29 0.00 47.95 0.00 45.54 0.00 43.59 0.00
2020 47.36 133.97 49.11 0.00 46.64 0.00 45.12 0.00
2021 51.10 139.89 52.81 0.00 50.33 0.00 48.88 0.00
2022 54.33 138.45 56.25 0.00 53.51 0.00 52.36 0.00
2023 55.73 136.81 57.66 0.00 54.91 0.00 53.62 0.00
2024 55.21 135.95 56.90 0.00 54.42 0.00 52.89 0.00
2025 54.26 181.47 56.02 0.00 53.47 0.00 52.25 0.00
2026 56.86 191.16 58.81 0.00 55.99 0.00 55.18 0.00
2027 58.39 192.31 60.41 0.00 57.50 0.00 56.78 0.00
2028 59.81 196.28 61.91 0.00 58.90 0.00 58.38 0.00
2029 60.95 188.84 63.10 0.00 60.04 0.00 59.34 0.00
2030 61.66 180.05 63.70 0.00 60.80 0.00 59.75 0.00
2031 63.40 164.73 64.98 0.00 62.49 0.00 60.38 0.00
2032 63.87 154.09 65.58 0.00 62.97 0.00 61.02 0.00
Nominal Levelized Prices $/MWh (2013-2032)
Market
Capacity
Integration
Total 40.32
-6.50
0.00
46.82 45.02
0.00
0.00
45.02
-6.50
42.75
Solar
47.62
10.07
0.00
57.69
Base Load Wind Canal Drop Hydro
49.25
0.00
Resultant Illustrative IRP Method Prices
CW_PR_1 Attachment B Page 5 of 5