20201123Avista to Staff 9-10.pdf

AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AW-E-20-10
REQUESTER: StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUEST NO.: Staff-009
DATE PREPARED: 1112012020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy Resources
TELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
The natural gas price forecast filed in this case uses a blend of forward market prices, forecasts
from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s2020 Annual Energy Outlook, and
forecasts from two national consultants. This methodology was discussed in the Company's
second Technical Advisory Committee meeting on August 6,2020 for the 2021lntegrated
Resource Plan (IRP). However, over the past IRPs such as the 2020 IRP in AVU-E- l 9-01 , Avista
used a blend of forward market prices and forecasts from two national consultants without using
forecasts from EIA. Please explain why the Company added the EIA forecast to the methodology.
RESPONSE:
The Company added the EIA Annual Energy Outlook forecast to the natural gas price forecast for
the 2021 IRP to smooth out the forecast because one of the consultants had a peak in the 2040s
which was skewing the forecast. This peak can been seen in the charts and underlying data in the
confidential attachment to Staff PR 010.
RECEIVED
2020November 23,AM 9:18
IDAHO PUBLIC
UTILITIES COMMISSION
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-E-20-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-0l0
DATE PREPARED
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
ty2012020
Clint Kalich
John Lyons
Energy Resources
(50e) 4es-8s1s
REQUEST:
Please provide the difference in the resulting forecast without the addition of the EIA forecast.
Please provide the two forecasts and the difference in Excel format with all formula enabled.
RESPONSE:
Please see Avista's response 013C, which contains TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or
CONFIDENTIAL information and exernpt from public view and is separately filed under
IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code.
Please see Staff PR_010_Confidential.xls with all of the underlying natural gas price forecast data
with and without the EIA forecast included, as well as charts showing the differences.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR TNFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AW-E-20-10
REQUESTER: StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUESTNO.: Staff-0l0C
DATE PREPARED: 1112012020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy Resources
TELEPHONE: (509) 49s-8s1s
REQUEST:
Please provide the difference in the resulting forecast without the addition of the EIA forecast.
Please provide the two forecasts and the difference in Excel format with all formula enabled.
RESPONSE:
Please note that the attached documents contain TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or
CONFIDENTIAL information and are separately filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and
233, ard Section 9-340D,Idaho Code.
Please see Staff PR_010 Confidential Attachment A with all of the underlying natural gas price
forecast data with and without the EIA forecast included, as well as charts showing the differences.