20201110Avista to Staff 1-8.pdf

ruRISDICTION
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
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REQUEST NO.:
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
IDAHO
AVU-E-20-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-OO1
it'[.]; iVHil
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint Kat&ffiii{*Y i* Fffi 3: h*
RESPONDER: John Lyons .,. * -j:,-., +:. r.i,ir :1.,DEPARTMENT: Energy Resourcqs].,:;- Jlf;iHS;+zuTELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide the date when the Company's peak and energy forecast data used inthe2020
Integrated Resource Plan in AVU-E-19-01 was developed.
RESPONSE:
The Company's peak and energy forecast data used in the 2020 lntegrated Resource Plan in
AVU-E-19-01 were finalizedin July 2019.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AVU-E-20-10
REQUESTER: StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUEST NO.: Staff-002
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy Resources
TELEPHONE: (s09) 495-851s
REQUEST:
Please provide the Company's peak and energy forecast data used in the 2020Integrated Resource
Plan in AVU-E-I9-01 in the same format as Table 1 in the Compliance Filing in AVU-E-20-10.
RESPONSE:
Table 1, using the Company's peak and energy forecast data used in the 2020lntegrated Resource
plan in AVU-E-19-01 follows:
Table 1 Peak and Energy Load Forecast (Using 2020IRP Forecast)
Year Energy
(aMw)
l-Hour Peak (MW)
2021 t.tt2 1,730
2022 1,1 18 1.733
2023 1.123 t.736
2024 1.129 1,740
202s I,l3l 1.743
2026 1.134 1.747
2027 I,136 1.7 5t
2028 1.139 1.754
2029 1.143 1,758
2030 1,145 1.762
2031 t.147 t,'767
2032 1,149 1.771
2033 1.151 1.776
2034 1.153 1,781
2035 1,155 t.786
2036 1,157 r.792
2037 1.159 1.798
2038 1,162 1.805
2039 r.t64 1.812
2040 1.167 1,820
2041 1,170 1.830
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-E-2O-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-003
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy ResourcesTELEPHONE: (509) 495-8s15
REQUEST:
Please provide all changes that the Company has made to the peak and energy forecast, if any,
from the one used in the 2020Integrated Resource Plan in AVU-E-19-01 to the one filed in
AVU-E-20-10, and explain why such changes were made.
RESPONSE:
The peak and energy forecasts used to make the filing in AVU-E-2}-LO used the same regression
analysis for the development of the forecasts used in the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan in
AVU-E-19-01. The only changes were the use of the updated actual data that became available
between July 2019 when the old forecasts were finalized and August 2020, when the current
forecasts were finalized.
The Company usually submits the load forecast from the most recently acknowledged IRP, which
is the 2020 IRP submitted in AVU-E-19-01. However, since the submissions of that IRp was
delayed from August 2019 until February 28,2020, that load forecast was not the most current
available. The Company decided to submit the current load price forecast in AVU-E-20-10 from
the202l IRP that will be filed on April 1, 2021.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
ruRISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AW-E-20-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-004
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint KalichRESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy ResourcesTELEPHONE: (s09) 49s-851s
REQUEST:
Please provide the date when the Company's natural gas price forecast data used inthe 2020
Integrated Resource Plan in AW-E-I9-01 was developed.
RESPONSE:
The natural gas forecast used in the 2020 lntegrated Resource Plan in AVU-E-19-01 was
developed using forward market prices as of June 12,2}lg plus the two consultant market price
forecasts were both from August 2018.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATTON
JURISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AVU-E-2O-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-005
DATE PREPARED: Illl3l2020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy ResourcesTELEPHONE: [phone]
REQUEST:
Please provide the Company's natural gas price forecast data used in the 2}2}Integrated Resource
Plan in AVU-E-19-01 in the same format as Table 2 inthe Compliance Filing in AVU-E-20-10.
RESPONSE:
The following shows the Company's natural gas price forecast data used in the 2020lntegrated
Resource Plan in AVU-E-19-01 in the same format as Table 2 in the Compliance Filing in
AW-E-20-10.
Table 2: Natural Gas Price Forecast (Using 2020 IRP Data)
Year
Henry Hub
($/mmbtu)
Stanfield
($/mmbtu)
202t 2.63 2.15
2022 2.61 2.17
2023 2.68 2.28
2024 2.91 2.46
2025 3.23 2.81
2026 3.50 3.00
2027 3.64 3.08
2028 3.86 3.26
2029 4.09 3.44
2030 4.34 3.68
2031 4.57 3.99
2032 4.72 4.21
2033 4.99 4.55
2034 5.12 4.72
2035 5.35 4.96
2036 5.54 5.t8
203',7 5.88 5.53
2038 6.22 6.18
2039 6.57 6.47
2040 6.89 6.77
204t 7.24 7.12
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
JURISDICTION
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AW-E-20-10
Staff
Production Request
Staff-006
DATE PREPARED
WITNESS:
RESPONDER:
DEPARTMENT:
TELEPHONE:
11t13t2020
Clint Kalich
John Lyons
Energy Resources
(s09) 49s-8s1s
REQUEST:
Please provide all changes that the Company has made to the natural gas price forecast, if any,
from the one used in the 2020Integrated Resource Plan in AVU-E-19-01 to the one filed in
AVU-E-20-10, and explain why such changes were made.
RESPONSE:
The new natural gas price forecast filed in AVU-E-20-10 uses a blend of forward market prices on
the NYMEX as of June30,2020 and forecasted prices from EIA's 2020 Annual Energy Outlook
and two consultants as discussed in the Company's second TAC meeting on August 6,2020.The
blending of the different components is shown below:
NYMEX
ErA/AEO
Consultant 1
Consultant 2
LOO%75%
8.33o/o
8.33%
8.33%
5O%o
L5.660/o
L6.660/o
1.6.66%
25o/o
25%
25%
25%
33.33%
33.33%
33.33%
The Company usually submits the natural gas prices from the most recently acknowledged IRP,
which is the 2020 IRP submitted in AVU-E-I9-01. However, since the submissions of that IRP
was delayed from August 2019 until February 28,2020, the natural gas price forecast was not the
most current. The Company decided to submit the current natural gas price forecast in
AVU-E-20-10 from the202l tRP that will be filed on April l, 2021.
2026 - 204s202s2020 -2022 2023 2024
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR TNFORMATTON
JURISDICTION: IDAHO
CASE NO: AVU-E-20-10
REQUESTER: StaffTYPE: Production Request
REQUEST NO.: Staff-007
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint Kalich
RESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy Resources
TELEPHONE: [phone]sls
REQUEST:
On page 3 of the AW-E-20-10 Compliance Filing, the Company provides a Natural Gas Forecast
with prices at Stanfield. Please explain why Stanfield was specifically selected and used for this
filing. Additionally, please explain why Stanfield was used in the Company's most recent natural
gas Forward Price Curve and specifically discussed in the Company's2020Integrated Resource
Plan (for example, page 10-10).
RESPONSE:
The Stanfield natural gas trading hub was used in this filing, as well as the 2020 IRP, because the
Company dispatches Coyote Springs 2 based on the natural gas prices at Stanfield. The 2020 IRP
uses the Henry Hub for the main natural gas forecast and then uses basin differentials to adjust for
the regional natural gas trading hubs. The trading hubs in the IRP include Stanfield, Malin, Sumas,
AECO, Rockies, Southern California. The basin differentials from the Henry Hub for selected
years are shown in Table 10.2 on page 10-9 of the 2020 IRP.
AVISTA CORPORATION
RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
ruRISDICTION:
CASE NO:
REQUESTER:
TYPE:
REQUEST NO.:
IDAHO
AW-E-20-10
Staff
Production Request
StaflOO8
DATE PREPARED: llll3l2020WITNESS: Clint KalichRESPONDER: John Lyons
DEPARTMENT: Energy Resources
TELEPHONE: (s09) 495-8s15
REQUEST:
Please identiff factors that make it difficult to submit these update filings earlier to allow
processing prior to an October l5 effective date.
RESPONSE:
The Company does not foresee any particular difficulties to submit these update filings at an
earlier date. We would need to know what earlier date is being considered to provide any
additional comment or to simply update our internal schedules to submit the update filings by an
earlier date.