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HomeMy WebLinkAboutApplication APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF THE APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER TO UPDATE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS USED IN THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL ) CASE NO. PAC-E-26-14 ) ) APPLICATION OF ) ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER ) Rocky Mountain Power, a division of PacifiCorp, (“Company”), hereby respectfully submits this Application to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission, ("Commission"), in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long-term contract components of the Integrated Resource Plan ("IRP") avoided cost model. In support of this Application, Rocky Mountain Power states as follows: 1. Rocky Mountain Power provides electric service to retail customers in the states of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Rocky Mountain Power is a public utility in the state of Idaho and is subject to the Commission's jurisdiction with respect to its prices and terms of electric service to retail customers pursuant to Idaho Code 61-129. Rocky Mountain Power provides retail electric service to approximately 91,000 customers in the state of Idaho. I. BACKGROUND 2. Order No. 32697 specified that the inputs to the IRP methodology calculation, utilized to determine the avoided cost for all new Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (“PURPA ”) qualifying facility ("QF") projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will 1 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's IRP filing with the exception of the load and the natural gas forecasts which are to be updated annually by June 1st of each year. The Commission ruled: “We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up to date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually between IRP filings. For the sake of consistency, these annual updates should occur simultaneously with SAR updates - on June 1 of each year. In addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments because of the potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable to include long-term contract considerations in an IRP Methodology calculation at such time as the QF and utility have entered into a signed contract for the sale and purchase of QF power. We further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings (every two years).”1 3. Order No. 32802 changed the due date of the annual update from June 1st to October 15th of each year. If approved, the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and contract information presented below will be incorporated into Rocky Mountain Power's IRP avoided cost model. Consistent with the Commission's prior orders, this methodology will be utilized by the Company as the starting point for negotiation of contractual avoided cost rates as of January 1, 2027. II. LOAD FORECAST 4. The Company's May 2026 load forecast and the load forecast used in Case No. PAC -E-25-19 are summarized in Table 1. The May 2026 load forecast reflects assumptions used to develop the 2025 IRP Update preferred portfolio as well as the energy efficiency selections as reported in PacifiCorp’s March 31, 2026 IRP Update filing, and remains the most recent forecast that is consistent with the load assumptions and resource selections in the 2025 IRP Update. The 1 In the matter of the Commission’s review of PURPA QF contract provisions including the Surrogate Avoided Resources (SAR) and Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) methodologies for calculating avoided cost rates. Case No. GNR-E-11-03, Order No. 32697, p. 22. 2 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER May 2026 load forecast shows an increase in load compared to the December 2024 load forecast provided in Case No. PAC -E-25-19, which was subsequently approved by Commission Order No. 36890. The change in the forecast is primarily due to load growth in Utah, including the inclusion of Kennecott retail load starting January 1, 2026 following the approval of a load service contract for Kennecott by the Utah Public Service Commission and growth of other existing customer load over time. Forecasted load in Idaho is slightly higher than the prior forecast, but annual volumes remain relatively stable over time. Consistent with the prior filing, no large new loads are included in the forecast, and resources procured to serve large new loads have been excluded from the list of executed contracts. 3 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER Table 1 Rocky Mountain Power Load Forecast Update Annual GWh Load Forecast May 2026 Year California Idaho Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total 2026 827 3,959 15,740 28,737 4,503 9,548 299 63,613 2027 822 3,957 15,710 29,483 4,643 9,410 142 64,167 2028 817 3,957 15,703 30,203 4,788 9,395 - 64,863 2029 808 3,943 15,611 30,680 4,756 9,305 - 65,103 2030 801 3,932 15,563 31,162 4,741 9,284 - 65,483 2031 795 3,921 15,520 31,702 4,724 9,244 - 65,906 2032 790 3,914 15,555 32,112 4,700 9,204 - 66,275 2033 782 3,901 15,510 32,432 4,652 9,123 - 66,399 2034 774 3,893 15,545 32,857 4,621 9,058 - 66,747 2035 767 3,890 15,652 33,490 4,601 9,003 - 67,401 2036 764 3,898 15,849 34,224 4,606 9,002 - 68,344 2037 762 3,900 15,987 35,131 4,602 8,965 - 69,348 2038 760 3,910 16,159 35,750 4,607 8,935 - 70,120 2039 759 3,924 16,357 36,408 4,624 8,909 - 70,980 2040 760 3,950 16,623 37,237 4,663 8,910 - 72,142 2041 757 3,966 16,850 38,048 4,678 8,867 - 73,165 2042 758 3,990 17,144 39,430 4,741 8,890 - 74,953 2043 758 4,015 17,393 40,270 4,773 8,877 - 76,086 2044 760 4,051 17,727 41,260 4,827 8,895 - 77,520 2045 759 4,082 18,046 42,118 4,861 8,874 - 78,740 Load Forecast - Dec 2024 Year California Idaho Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming FERC Total 2026 836 3,814 15,853 27,778 4,453 9,516 287 62,538 2027 832 3,813 15,832 28,405 4,605 9,481 138 63,106 2028 829 3,815 15,827 28,898 4,756 9,432 - 63,557 2029 822 3,801 15,767 29,169 4,724 9,374 - 63,655 2030 817 3,791 15,755 29,553 4,705 9,312 - 63,933 2031 812 3,780 15,746 30,094 4,689 9,280 - 64,401 2032 809 3,773 15,771 30,376 4,669 9,217 - 64,616 2033 802 3,755 15,770 30,532 4,625 9,139 - 64,623 2034 797 3,746 15,840 30,792 4,597 9,056 - 64,827 2035 793 3,740 15,977 31,196 4,578 8,999 - 65,283 2036 793 3,747 16,204 31,758 4,582 8,996 - 66,079 2037 790 3,743 16,379 32,418 4,577 8,958 - 66,865 2038 789 3,752 16,594 32,863 4,587 8,929 - 67,513 2039 789 3,765 16,844 33,342 4,608 8,905 - 68,254 2040 792 3,790 17,147 33,958 4,651 8,909 - 69,246 2041 790 3,803 17,415 34,523 4,669 8,867 - 70,069 2042 792 3,826 17,746 35,633 4,730 8,893 - 71,620 2043 793 3,850 18,009 36,228 4,761 8,887 - 72,528 2044 797 3,883 18,355 36,911 4,814 8,907 - 73,668 2045 797 3,910 18,626 37,471 4,846 8,892 - 74,540 Loads are net of Demand Side Management 4 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORECAST 5. The Company’s most recent Official Forward Price Curve (“OFPC”) was prepared on September 30, 2026 (“2609 OFPC”). The price forecast used in Case No. PAC-E- 25-19 was prepared on September 30, 2025 (“2509 OFPC”). Table 2 provides the 2609 OFPC natural gas prices summarized annually by market hub. The 2509 OFPC is also provided for reference only. In the near term, from 2027 to 2030, the forecasted natural gas prices in all hubs are predominantly lower in the 2609 OFPC forecast compared to the prior-year forecast. For 2031 and beyond, the gas price forecast is slightly higher for the Opal Gas hub, which is the primary index for the Company’s natural gas fired resources in Utah and Wyoming, while prices at other gas hubs have fallen somewhat. 5 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER Table 2 Rocky Mountain Power Natural Gas Price Update $/MMBtu Official Forward Price Curve (2609) - 09/30/2026 Year Opal Gas Index Sumas Index Stanfield Index San Juan Index Henry Hub Index AECO Index SOCALBOR Index 2026(a) $3.41 $3.55 $2.59 $2.92 $3.20 $1.56 $4.04 2027 $3.11 $3.04 $2.43 $2.71 $3.21 $1.61 $3.83 2028 $3.75 $3.91 $2.95 $3.32 $3.73 $1.90 $4.56 2029 $3.87 $4.09 $3.20 $3.48 $3.89 $2.21 $4.64 2030 $4.75 $4.78 $4.40 $4.39 $4.99 $3.57 $5.47 2031 $5.51 $5.42 $5.39 $5.16 $5.92 $4.69 $6.17 2032 $5.31 $5.14 $5.14 $4.96 $5.72 $4.36 $5.97 2033 $5.23 $5.02 $5.02 $4.87 $5.57 $4.19 $5.89 2034 $5.36 $5.10 $5.11 $4.98 $5.70 $4.23 $6.03 2035 $5.54 $5.20 $5.23 $5.14 $5.84 $4.24 $6.22 2036 $5.80 $5.38 $5.43 $5.39 $6.07 $4.42 $6.49 2037 $5.94 $5.47 $5.55 $5.51 $6.19 $4.47 $6.65 2038 $6.03 $5.40 $5.53 $5.59 $6.25 $4.35 $6.75 2039 $6.28 $5.57 $5.72 $5.82 $6.48 $4.51 $7.02 2040 $6.53 $5.73 $5.92 $6.06 $6.71 $4.68 $7.29 2041 $6.84 $5.92 $6.13 $6.35 $6.99 $4.82 $7.61 2042 $7.08 $6.02 $6.26 $6.58 $7.21 $4.91 $7.86 2043 $7.50 $6.31 $6.59 $6.99 $7.64 $5.21 $8.30 2044 $7.90 $6.58 $6.89 $7.39 $8.05 $5.48 $8.73 2045 $8.16 $6.72 $7.06 $7.64 $8.30 $5.61 $9.01 (a) 2026 Forecast gas prices are for November and December only Offical Forward Price Curve (2509) - 09/30/2025 Year Opal Gas Index Sumas Index Stanfield Index San Juan Index Henry Hub Index AECO Index SOCALBOR Index 2026(a) $4.79 $5.83 $3.87 $4.41 $4.33 $2.66 $5.04 2027 $3.89 $4.26 $3.26 $3.70 $3.95 $2.38 $4.18 2028 $3.80 $4.35 $3.34 $3.68 $3.94 $2.52 $4.15 2029 $4.30 $4.69 $4.47 $4.39 $4.75 $3.57 $4.89 2030 $4.83 $5.16 $5.52 $5.10 $5.52 $4.49 $5.63 2031 $5.04 $5.37 $5.79 $5.38 $5.85 $4.64 $5.91 2032 $5.11 $5.43 $5.90 $5.48 $5.92 $4.68 $6.02 2033 $5.18 $5.44 $6.00 $5.57 $6.00 $4.73 $6.13 2034 $5.31 $5.58 $6.18 $5.73 $6.14 $4.82 $6.31 2035 $5.46 $5.70 $6.35 $5.89 $6.26 $4.96 $6.48 2036 $5.58 $5.84 $6.54 $6.06 $6.39 $5.03 $6.67 2037 $5.74 $5.99 $6.72 $6.22 $6.49 $5.17 $6.86 2038 $5.92 $6.17 $6.95 $6.44 $6.66 $5.30 $7.10 2039 $6.13 $6.38 $7.21 $6.67 $6.81 $5.48 $7.36 2040 $6.37 $6.63 $7.52 $6.97 $7.07 $5.67 $7.68 2041 $6.58 $6.85 $7.78 $7.22 $7.29 $5.84 $7.94 2042 $6.93 $7.19 $8.19 $7.61 $7.69 $6.15 $8.36 2043 $7.26 $7.51 $8.58 $7.99 $8.08 $6.43 $8.75 2044 $7.58 $7.82 $8.97 $8.38 $8.50 $6.70 $9.15 2045 $7.90 $8.14 $9.37 $8.75 $8.85 $6.96 $9.56 (a) 2026 Forecast gas prices are for November and December only 6 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS, EXPIRATIONS, AND ADDITIONS 6. Since filing Case No. PAC -E-25-19, the Company has signed fifteen long-term contracts, including ten long-term contracts with qualifying facilities, for a total nameplate capacity of approximately 447 megawatts. Four long-term contracts have terminated or expired for a total nameplate capacity of approximately 19 megawatts. Table 3 provides a list of signed and expired or terminated contracts since October 1, 2025. 7. Rocky Mountain Power currently has 42 non-PURPA, long-term power purchase agreements with a nameplate capacity of 5,370 megawatts, and 170 PURPA QF contracts with a nameplate capacity of 2,208 megawatts. New, terminated, and expired contracts are reflected in the IRP model on a continuous basis. Table 3 Long Term Contracts signed since the October 2025 Filing No. Contract Type Nameplate (MW) Start Date End Date 1 Central Oregon Irrigation District (COID) Siphon OR Standard QF PPA 6.00 1/1/2026 12/31/2026 2 Exxon Mobil Corporation WY QF PPA 107.40 1/1/2026 12/31/2026 3 Eagle Point Irrigation District OR Standard QF PPA 0.94 2/13/2026 2/12/2027 4 Wolverine Creek Energy LLC Non-QF PPA 64.25 2/20/2026 12/31/2026 5 Kelly Creek Solar, LLC OR Community Solar QF PPA 2.25 4/8/2026 4/7/2046 6 J Bar 9, LLC WY QF PPA 0.10 5/1/2026 10/16/2026 7 Douglas County Forest Products OR Standard QF PPA 6.25 6/1/2026 5/31/2031 8 Medford Irrigation District OR Community Solar QF PPA 0.80 10/31/2026 9/29/2046 9 Lomaside Solar, LLC OR Community Solar QF PPA 1.10 12/9/2026 12/30/2043 10 Cowlitz Meaningful Priority Share of Grant PUD Priest Rapids Non-QF PPA 22.30 1/1/2027 12/31/2027 11 EWEB Priority Share of Grant PUD Priest Rapids Project Non-QF PPA 19.11 1/1/2027 12/31/2027 12 PacifiCorp's Share of Grant PUD Meaningful Priority Slice Non-QF PPA 150.00 1/1/2027 12/31/2027 13 Tacoma Power Meaningful Priority Share of Grant PUD Priest Rapids Non-QF PPA 38.70 1/1/2027 12/31/2027 14 Tesoro Refining & Marketing Co UT QF PPA 25.00 1/1/2027 12/31/2027 15 Shoshone Irrigation District LLC WY QF PPA 2.90 1/1/2027 12/31/2046 Total Signed MW 447.1 Long Term Contracts Expired or Terminated since the October 2025 Filing No. Contract Type Nameplate (MW) Date 1 Roseburg Forest Products - Weed (RFPC Weed PPA QF)CA QF PPA 10.0 3/4/2026 2 TMF Biofuels OR Standard QF PPA 4.8 4/30/2026 3 Oregon Environmental Industries OR Standard QF PPA 2.9 7/31/2026 4 Kettle Butte Digester LLC ID QF PPA 1.7 8/30/2026 Total Expired or Terminated MW 19.4 7 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER V. COMMUNICATIONS 8. Communications regarding this filing should be addressed to: Anna DeMers Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager Rocky Mountain Power 315 W. 27th Street Cheyenne, WY 82001 Telephone: (801) 534-5019 Email: anna.demers@pacificorp.com Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com In addition, Rocky Mountain Power requests that all data requests regarding this Application be sent in Microsoft Word to the following: By email (preferred): datarequest@pacificorp.com By regular mail: Data Request Response Center PacifiCorp 825 Multnomah, Suite 2000 Portland, Oregon 97232 Informal questions may be directed to Anna DeMers, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager at (801) 534-5019. VI.MODIFIED PROCEDURE 9.The Company believes that a hearing is not necessary to consider the issues presented herein and respectfully requests that this Application be processed under Modified Procedure; i.e., by written submissions rather than by hearing. RP 201 et seq. 8 APPLICATION OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER VII.REQUEST FOR RELIEF WHEREFORE, Rocky Mountain Power hereby respectfully submits its updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, and QF contract information in compliance with the Commission's directives in Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 and requests that the Commission issue an order approving this updated information for inclusion in the Company’s IRP avoided cost calculations effective January 1, 2027. DATED this 15th day of October 2026. Respectfully submitted, ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER ______________________________ Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas@pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power 9