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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPPLICATION CERTIFICATE OF ATTORNEY ASSERTION THAT INFORMATION CONTAINED IN AN IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION FILING IS PROTECTED FROM PUBLIC INSPECTION Idaho Power Company’s Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and Gas Forecast in the Incremental Cost Integrated Resource Plan Avoided Cost Model Case No. IPC-E-26-30 The undersigned attorney, in accordance with Commission Rules of Procedure 67, believes that the Attachment 1 to Idaho Power Company’s Annual Compliance Filing dated October 15, 2026, contains information that Idaho Power and/or a third-party claim constitutes trade secrets or other confidential business data exempt from disclosure under Idaho Code § 74-101, et seq., and/or § 48-801, et seq. As such, it is protected from public disclosure, inspection, examination, or copying. DATED this 15th day of October 2026. LISA C. LANCE Counsel for Idaho Power Company IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 1 LISA C. LANCE (ISB No. 6241) DONOVAN E. WALKER (ISB No. 5921) Idaho Power Company 1221 West Idaho Street (83702) P. O. Box 70 Boise, Idaho 83707 Telephone: (208) 388-2649 Facsimile: (208) 388-6936 llance@idahopower.com dwalker@idahopower.com Attorneys for Idaho Power Company BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING TO UPDATE THE LOAD AND GAS FORECASTS IN THE INCREMENTAL COST INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN AVOIDED COST MODEL. ) ) ) ) ) ) ) CASE NO. IPC-E-26-30 IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING Idaho Power Company (“Idaho Power” or “Company”) hereby respectfully submits to the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (“Commission”) this filing in compliance with Order Nos. 32697 and 32802 to update the load forecast, natural gas forecast, and long- term contract changes used in the Incremental Cost Integrated Resource Plan (“ICIRP”) avoided cost methodology. Additionally, in compliance with Order No. 36885, this filing confirms the Peak Hour and Premium Peak Hours used to calculate capacity payments for energy storage qualifying facilities (“QF”). IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 2 I. INTRODUCTION In Order No. 32697, the Commission determined that the inputs to the ICIRP avoided cost methodology, utilized for all proposed Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 ("PURPA") QF projects that exceed the published rate eligibility cap, will be updated every two years upon acknowledgement of the utility's Integrated Resource Plan (“IRP") filing, with the exception of the load forecast and the natural gas forecast, which should be updated annually. Discussing the timetable for updates to the ICIRP Methodology, the Commission explained: We find that, in order to maintain the most accurate and up- to-date reflection of a utility's true avoided cost, utilities must update fuel price forecasts and load forecasts annually — between IRP filings…In addition, it is appropriate to consider long-term contract commitments because of the potential effect that such commitments have on a utility's load and resource balance…We further find it appropriate to consider PURPA contracts that have terminated or expired in each utility's load and resource balance. We find it reasonable that all other variables and assumptions utilized within the IRP Methodology remain fixed between IRP filings (every two years).1 Though the Commission originally set June 1 as the annual filing date, it agreed on reconsideration that updates to gas and load forecasts used in the ICIRP methodologies should occur on October 15 of each year.2 Additionally, the Commission further clarified in Order No. 36956 that the Company should use the “most recently filed IRP to determine the avoided cost of energy and the avoided cost of capacity for ICIRP pricing.”3 1 In the Matter of Generic Electric – Phase Three – Analyzing SAR and IRP Methodologies, Case No. GNR-E-11-03, Order No. 32697 at 22 (Dec. 18, 2012). 2 Id., Order No. 32802 at 3 (May 6, 2013). 3 In the Matter of Idaho Power Company’s Application for Approval or Rejection of an Energy Sales Agreement with Fossil Gulch Wind Park, LLC for the Sale and Purchase of Electric Energy from the Fossil Gulch Wind Park, Case No. IPC-E-25-31, Order No. 36956 (March 5, 2026). IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 3 In considering implementation of PURPA with respect to energy storage QFs, the Commission determined that the avoided cost of capacity should be paid only on production during the hours identified as the Company's Peak Hours and Premium Peak Hours.4 The Commission also agreed that the updates to Peak and Premium Peak Hours should be included in the annual October 15 update to the other ICIRP method inputs.5 The load forecast, natural gas forecast, contract information, and Peak Hours and Premium Peak Hours designations for battery storage capacity payments that are set forth below are presented in compliance with the pertinent Commission Orders and will be incorporated into Idaho Power's ICIRP avoided cost methodology. Consistent with the Commission's directives, this methodology will be used by Idaho Power as the starting point for the negotiation of its contractual avoided cost rates as of January 1, 2027. II. LOAD FORECAST Consistent with prior updates, Idaho Power is updating its load forecast to the Company’s most recent available 50th percentile forecast. Idaho Power's most recent load forecast from September 2026 shows an increase in customer loads over the 20- year period, as compared with the September 2025 load forecast used in the Company's previous annual update approved in December 2025.6 The increase is due to the Company's re-estimation of all major retail customer class usage and growth as well as updates related to electric service agreements and special contracts to include the most recent assessment of load and energy requirements by those customers. The updated load forecast and a comparison to the September 2025 load forecast is included in 4 In the Matter of Idaho Power Company’s Petition to Establish Avoided Cost Rates – PURPA Energy Storage Qualifying Facilities, Case No. IPC-E-20-02, Order No. 34794 (Oct. 2, 2020). 5 Id., Order No. 34913 (Feb. 5. 2021). 6 In the Matter of Idaho Power Company's Annual Compliance Filing to Update the Load and Gas Forecasts in the Incremental Cost Integrated Resource Plan Avoided Cost Model, Case No. IPC-E-25-33, Order No. 36885 (Dec. 23, 2025). IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 4 Confidential Attachment 1. This information is being marked and treated as confidential because it is confidential and proprietary Company information that has not yet been shared publicly. III. NATURAL GAS PRICE FORCAST The Company is proposing to use New York Mercantile Exchange (“NYMEX”) forward natural gas prices7 for the first three years of the natural gas price forecast. Additionally, the Company proposes that the fourth year of the natural gas price forecast consist of the average of the NYMEX forward price and the S&P Platt’s long-term natural gas forecast8 (“Platt’s forecast”), and that the forecast for the fifth year and beyond rely on the Platt’s forecast. The Company’s proposal to rely on NYMEX prices for years one through three is consistent with Idaho Power’s risk management policy. In July 2025, the Company extended its hedging horizon under the policy from 18 to 36 months. Because NYMEX- based hedges comprise the majority of the Company’s natural gas hedging activity, NYMEX prices are representative of the Company's gas price exposure over this three- year period. The Company’s proposal herein is also consistent with prior Commission direction. For example, in Order No. 36885 regarding the Company’s 2025 update, the Commission directed the Company to utilize the same methodology the Company is proposing now for the 2026 update: the most recent NYMEX forward prices for the first three years of the forecast, an average of the NYMEX forward price and the Platt’s forecast in year four, and the Platt’s forecast in year five and thereafter.9 7 Published October 12, 2026. 8 Published August 28, 2026. 9 Order No. 36885 at 8. IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 5 Because the forecasted prices contained in the Company’s proposal come from subscription-based and proprietary sources, this information has been included in Confidential Attachment No. 1, which contains a table and a graph setting forth the natural gas price forecast proposed in this case compared with the Company’s natural gas price forecast approved in last year’s annual compliance filing through Order No. 36885. IV. CONTRACT TERMINATIONS, EXPIRATIONS, AND ADDITIONS Idaho Power currently has eight non-PURPA, long-term power purchase agreements with projects that are online: Elkhorn Valley Wind (101 megawatts ("MW")), Raft River Geothermal (13 MW), Neal Hot Springs Geothermal (22 MW), Jackpot Solar (120 MW), Black Mesa Energy Solar (40 MW), Franklin Solar (100 MW), Pleasant Valley Solar 1 (200 MW), and Pleasant Valley Solar 2 (125 MW). The Company has one non- PURPA long term battery services agreement with an operational battery energy storage system ("BESS"), the Kuna BESS (150 MW/600 MWh). Idaho Power also has 129 contracts with online PURPA QFs with a total nameplate capacity of 1,119 MW. Moreover, the Company has four additional non-PURPA PPAs with solar facilities that have not yet achieved commercial operation, and two additional long-term battery services agreements with BESS facilities that have not yet achieved commercial operation. Table 1 below provides a list of new and terminated contracts since the last update in October 2025. New Energy Sale Agreements (“ESA”) and terminated or expired contracts, as well as new complete ESA applications, are all included in the ICIRP model on a continuous basis. New and Commission-approved non-PURPA power purchase agreements or resource acquisitions are also included in the model on a continuous basis. IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 6 Table 1: Contract Updates V. PEAK AND PREMIUM PEAK HOURS In Order No. 36885, the Commission approved the Company’s proposal to rely on the Loss of Load Probability (“LOLP”) method to identify Peak and Premium Peak Hours going forward.10 The LOLP methodology, which has been implemented in Idaho Power's past three IRP filings via the internally developed Reliability & Capacity Assessment Tool, calculates the probability of demand exceeding available generation for every hour over the planning period. Capacity-based hourly LOLP values are currently used to determine the seasons and hours of highest risk, as described in Appendix D of the 2025 IRP. These hours represent the greatest risk of capacity shortfall and are therefore the most appropriate for identifying Peak and Premium Peak Hours for battery storage capacity payments. 10 Order No. 36885 at 8. IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 7 The Company’s proposal to use the LOLP methodology to determine Peak and Premium Peak Hours was based on the objective, data-driven nature of the analysis and the fact that use of the methodology to determine risk timing is consistent with Idaho Power’s approach in other proceedings. The Commission agreed, finding the method to be “more sophisticated and objective” and “consistent with the methods used to calculate avoided capacity costs in the export credit rate for on-site generation customers and to set Time-of-Use customer rates.”11 The LOLP-based timing of highest risk study is updated every two years as part of each IRP filing. The currently effective Peak and Premium Peak Hours approved in Order No. 36885 were the result of the timing of highest risk study performed for the 2025 IRP; the Company has not run an updated study or filed a new IRP since that time. Therefore, the Company is not proposing a change to the current Peak and Premium Peak Hours in this filing. In sum, the Peak and Premium Peak Hours are now identified based on the highest risk hours identified in the LOLP-based study, updated every two years as part of each IRP filing. As a result, both the methodology for determining Peak and Premium Peak Hours, and the timing of the determination, have changed since Order No. 34913 when the Commission first directed the Company to update such hours in the annual October 15 filing. In light of these changes, Idaho Power proposes that in the future it will expressly identify the Peak and Premium Peak Hours in the IRP itself, and that the update to the hours would take effect as of the filing of each IRP. This proposal would (1) align the adoption of the updated Peak and Premium Peak Hours with filing of the timing of highest risk study and IRP that determines the hours, and (2) align the adoption of the updated 11 Id. at 7. IDAHO POWER COMPANY’S ANNUAL COMPLIANCE FILING - 8 Peak and Premium Peak Hours with the adoption of other avoided cost pricing inputs that are updated with the filing of each IRP.12 This proposed implementation would support consistency between the filings and avoid a timing lag that would otherwise exist between the filing of a new IRP and the update of the Peak and Premium Peak Hours in the annual October 15 update filing, as is currently expected. In the alternative, Idaho Power could continue to provide the updated hours as part of this annual compliance filing for Commission approval. VI. CONCLUSION Idaho Power hereby respectfully submits this updated load forecast, natural gas forecast, contract information, and validated Peak and Premium Peak Hours in compliance with the Commission's directives in Order Nos. 32697, 32802, and 36885 and requests that the Commission accept and approve the same. Respectfully submitted this 15th day of October 2026. LISA C. LANCE Attorney for Idaho Power Company 12 For example, the avoided cost pricing model used in the ICIRP methodology is updated as of the filing of each new IRP. BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION CASE NO. IPC-E-26-30 IDAHO POWER COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL ATTACHMENT NO. 1 ATTACHMENT 1 IS CONFIDENTIAL AND WILL BE PROVIDED TO THOSE PARTIES THAT EXECUTE THE PROTECTIVE AGREEMENT IN THIS MATTER