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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20260909Exhibit No. 2 - Step-by-Step Commercial Offering Development - Sensitivity Testing.pdf EXHIBIT No.2 CASE No.INT-G-26-05 INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY STEP-BY-STEP COMMERCIAL OFFERING DEVELOPMENT-SENSITIVITY TESTING (10 PAGES Original modelfrom INT-G-25-07 INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Commercial Overhead Cost 5 217,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE LICT RESULTS ANNUALTHERM INCREMENTAL PROPOSED REBATE Year Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST AMOUNT Forecast UCF RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.3 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 S 8,925 5 6,000 6 19 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 S 1,175 S 1,500 6 15 Storage Water Heater NC Commercial a" 13 5 15,421 5 3,500 2 L6 Storage Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 1708 13 S 5,946 S 6,000 6 1.9 Tankless Water Heater NC Commercial 1460 13 S 24,049 5 6,000 50 16 Tankless Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 1715 13 5 10,913 S 8,000 25 15 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 109 20 S 1,439 $ 200 150 12 GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 S 3,457 $ 2,000 1 1-9 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 S 3,457 $ 6,000 1 3.0 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 15 5 3,457 S 10,000 1 3A GHP water heating(>3.2 COP) Commercial 129 15 S 3,222 S 150 1 11 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 S 29 $ 500 1 13 Energy Star Convection Oven Commercial 158 12 $ 1,172 S 150 5 1-2 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 S 500 1 13 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 S 1,000 1 18 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 S 1,965 $ 550 1 15 1.3 Energy Star Griddle commercial 1 139 12 $ 4,745 S 100 1 10 1.1 Step1 : UCTwith updated water heating savings values. Water heating was not cost effective. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Commercial Overhead Cos 5 217,500 Rebate Al location Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE LICTRESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL PROPOSED REBATE Year Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 5 612 5 450 1 1.3 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 5 6,000 6 1.9 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,500 6 1.5 Storage Water Heater NC Commercial 45 13 $ 15,421 $ 3,500 2 0.1 Storage Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 53 13 S 5,946 $ 6,000 6 0.1 Tankless Water Heater NC Commercial 30 13 S 24,049 S 6,000 50 0.0 Tankless Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 32 13 $ 10,813 $ 8,000 25 0.0 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 I50 1.2 GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 S 3,457 S 2,000 1 1.9 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 $ 3,457 S 6,000 1 3.0 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 15 $ 3,457 $ 10,000 1 3.4 GHP water heating(>1.2 COP) Commercial 129 15 S 3,222 S 150 1 1.2 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ S00 1 13 Energy Star Convection Oven Commercial 158 12 $ 1,122 $ 150 5 1.2 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 S 500 1 1.3 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,000 1 1.8 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 IS 1.3 Energy Star Griddle Commercial 139 12 $ 4,745 $ 100 10 1.1 Step 2: Removed all non-cost-effective water heating measures. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Commercial Overhead Cos 5 217,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UCT RESULTS ANNUALTHERM INCREMENTAL PROPOSED REBATE Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST AMOUNT Forecast UCE RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.0 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 5 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.6 Storage Water Heater NC Commercial 45 13 $ 15,421 $ 3,SOD 0.0 Storage Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 53 13 $ 5,946 5 6,000 0.0 Tankless Water Heater NC Commercial 30 13 $ 24,049 5 6,OD0 0.0 Tankless Water Heater Retrofit Commercial 32 13 $ 10,813 5 B4ODD 0.0 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 109 20 5 1,439 $ 200 150 0.9 GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 5 3,457 $ 2,000 1 1.7 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 $ 3,457 5 3,200 1 4.7 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 1-51 3,457 5 3,200 1 8.5 GHP water heating(>1.2 COP) Commercial 129 15 $ 3,222 5 150 1 0.9 Pipe Insulation Commercial 1111'250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Convection Oven Commercial 158 12 $ 1,122 $ 150 5 0.9 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 5 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 5 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,965 5 550 15 1.0 Energy Star Griddle Commercial 139 12 $ 4,745 5 100 10 0.8 Step 3. Optimized incentives while maintaining incentives at or below the estimated incremental cost. Four measures did not meet the 1 .0 UCT threshold. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing CommeMaI Overhead Cost 5 217,5D0 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UCT RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL PROPOSED REBATE Year Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 5 612 $ 450 1 1.0 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 5 8,825 5 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Soiler<300K Commercial 262 251 5 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.6 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 5 1,438 5 200 150 0.9 GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 $ 3,457 $ 2,000 1 1.7 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 5 3,457 5 3,2D0 1 4.7 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 15 S 3,457 S 3,200 1 8.5 GHP water heating(>1.2 COP) Commercial 129 15 $ 3,222 $ 150 1 0.9 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 5 29 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Convection Oven Commercial 158 12 $ 1,122 S 150 5 0.9 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 5 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 5 1,397 5 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.0 Energy Star Griddle Commercial 139 12 5 4,745 5 100 10 0.8 Step 4: Removed three of the four measures that did not meet the 1 .0 threshold, kept the furnace measure at 0.9 UCT. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Commercial Overhead Costs $ 217,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UCT RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.0 High-Efficiency Condensing Sol ler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.5 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 150 0.9 GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 $ 3,457 $ 2,000 1 1.6 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 $ 3,457 $ 3,200 1 4.6 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 15 $ 3,457 $ 3,200 1 9.3 Pipe Insulation Commercial 2501 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp I Commercial 1 3131 18 $ 2,397 $ 1,200 1 2.3 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 1$ 550 15 1.0 Step 5: Updated the modelwith the most current 2027 budgetforecast. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Commercial Overhead Costs $ 175,5D0 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UCT RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.1 High-Efficiency Condensing Boi lera30pK Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 High-Efficiency Condensing Boi ler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 - Furnace95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 150 1.c GHP<65kBtu-space heating Commercial 613 15 $ 3,457 $ 2,000 1 1.8 GHP 65-135kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 2369 15 $ 3,457 $ 3,200 1 4.8 GHP135-240 kBtu-Space Heating Commercial 4276 15 $ 3,457 $ 3,200 1 8.7 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.: Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.: Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1.200 11 1.4 Energy Star Fryer I ommercial 2641 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.1 Step 6: Removed GHP to create the base case. INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing PROGRAM [ Commercial Overhead Costs I$ 175,500 Rebate AI Iocat on Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UICT RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 5 450 1.1 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1A High-Efficiency Condensing Boi ler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.7 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 150 1.0 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1A Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 5 1,865 $ 550 15 1.1 SENSITIVITY TESTING - Furnace UES and Participation Scenario 1 : Furnace UES 10% lower than estimated INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing h Savings Risk: low Commercial Over ead Costs $ 175,500 Furnace UES 10% lower than estimated Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count UCT INPUT BY REBATE RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCFRATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.1 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.7 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 97 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 150 0.9 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.1 1.1 Scenario 2: Furnace UES 10% higherthan estimated INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Savings Risk: High ICommercial Overhead Costs $ 175,500 Furnace UES 10%higher than estimated Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count INPUT BY REBATE UCT RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCi RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.1 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency CondensingBoiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.7 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 119 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 150 1.1 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 50o 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.1 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.1 1.2 Scenario 3: Furnace participation 20% lower than expected INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Market Participation Risk: Low lCommercial Overhead Costs $ 175,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count Furnace participation 20% lower than expected UCT INPUT BY REBATE RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.0 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.6 Furnace 9S%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 135 0.9 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.1 1.1 Scenario 4: Furnace Participation 20% higherthan expected INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Market Participation Risk: High ICommercial Overhead Costs $ 175,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count Furnace participation 20% higher than estimated ucr INPUT BY REBATE RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.2 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.5 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,17S $ 1,100 6 1.8 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 108 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 180 1.1 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.2 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ S00 1 1.2 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.5 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.2 1.2 Scenario 5: Furnace UES 10% lower than expected, furnace participation 20% lower than expected INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Scenario: Low savings, Low participation lCommercial Overhead Costs $ 175,500 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count Furnace savings and furnace participation lower than base case UCT INPUT BY REBATE RESULTS ANNUALTHERM INCREMENTAL Year1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCT RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.0 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,000 6 1.4 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.6 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 97 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 135 0.8 Pipe Insulation Commercial 250 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.0 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.4 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 1s 1.1 1. Scenario 6: Furnace UES 10% higherthan expected, furnace participation 20% higherthan expected INTERMOUNTAIN GAS COMPANY Energy Efficiency Commercial Program(Program Planning) Year 1 Program Planning Cost Effectiveness Testing Scenario: High savings, high participation Commercial Overhead Costs $ 175,1 Rebate Allocation Method %Rebate Count Furnace savings and participation higher than base case Ucr INPUT BY REBATE RESULTS ANNUAL THERM INCREMENTAL Year 1 Rebate FORECASTED REBATE NAME SEGMENT SAVING ESTIMATE EUL COST PROPOSED REBATE AMOUNT Forecast UCr RATIO Boiler Reset Control Commercial 174 16 $ 612 $ 450 1 1.2 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler>300K Commercial 982 25 $ 8,825 $ 8,OD0 6 1.5 High-Efficiency Condensing Boiler<300K Commercial 262 25 $ 1,175 $ 1,100 6 1.8 Furnace 95%AFUE Commercial 119 20 $ 1,438 $ 200 180 1.3 Pipe Insulation Commercial 256 11 $ 29 $ 500 1 1.2 Energy Star Dishwasher High Temp Commercial 203 14 $ 502 $ 500 1 1.2 Energy Star Dishwasher Low Temp Commercial 313 18 $ 1,397 $ 1,200 1 1.5 Energy Star Fryer Commercial 264 11 $ 1,865 $ 550 15 1.2 1