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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20260731IIPA Comments - Redacted.pdf Eric L. Olsen(ISB#4811) ECHO HAWK& OLSEN, PLLC RECEIVED 505 Pershing Ave., Ste. 100 JULY 31, 2026 P.O. Box 6119 IDAHO PUBLIC Pocatello, Idaho 83205 UTILITIES COMMISSION Telephone: (208) 478-1624 Facsimile: (208)478-1670 Email: elo(a)echohawk.com Attorney for Intervenor Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association, Inc. BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF IDAHO POWER CASE NO. IPC-E-26-04 COMPANY'S APPLICATION FOR CERTIFICATES OF PUBLIC IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS CONVENIENCE AND NECESSITY FOR ASSOCIATION,INC.'S WRITTEN THE SOUTH HILLS AND PEREGRINE COMMENTS POWER PLANTS AND FOR AN ASSOCIATED ACCOUNTING ORDER. The Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association, Inc. ("IIPA"), by and through counsel, hereby submits its Written Comments on Idaho Power Company's("Idaho Power"or"Company")Application for Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity for the South Hills and Peregrine Power Plants and for an Associated Accounting Order, as follows: Introduction The Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association ("IIPA") submits these comments to clarify how the record in this proceeding may affect future rate design, cost-of-service ("COS") allocation, and cost recovery, in the event the proposed resource is approved. IIPA does not seek here to relitigate the Company's resource selection. Those issues have been addressed in prior CPCN proceedings and remain preserved.Instead,these comments are intended to ensure that the record clearly reflects several features of the proposed project that will directly influence downstream ratemaking outcomes. In particular, the record indicates that the proposed resource arises from an identified capacity deficit, and that the Company pursued procurement under time constraints that affected both the structure of the contract and the timing of cost commitments. As a result, the project reflects not only the cost of physical capacity, but also the costs associated with procurement timing, optionality, and risk allocation. These distinctions matter for ratemaking. Costs associated with system need are typically allocated based on cost causation principles,whereas costs associated with timing decisions, execution risk, or optionality may not be attributable to specific customer classes in the same way. IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page I CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 Accordingly, IIPA's purpose is to ensure that the record clearly reflects: 1. the magnitude and structure of the project's costs; 2. the extent to which those costs are driven by system need versus procurement timing or contractual structure; and 3. the degree to which risks have been transferred to, or retained by,customers. As discussed below, several elements of the Company's proposal, including pre-approval cost commitments, cost escalation mechanisms, and the absence of class-specific need analysis, may affect whether future rates align with cost causation principles or result in cross-subsidization among customer classes. These comments do not assert a specific ratemaking outcome. Rather, they identify issues that should remain visible in the record for consideration in subsequent COS and rate proceedings. I. Root cause of the project and implication for cost structure. The record indicates that the project is driven by an identified capacity need. However,the manner in which that need was addressed—specifically,the timing of procurement and the structure of the resulting contract—appears to have introduced additional cost components beyond the underlying resource itself. In particular: 1. the Company pursued procurement under conditions that required securing manufacturing capacity in advance; 2. this resulted in a non-refundable reservation payment made prior to regulatory approval; and 3. the contract includes provisions that allow for cost variability over time (e.g., tariffs, change-in-law adjustments). These features suggest that a portion of total project cost may be attributable not solely to the physical provision of capacity,but also to procurement timing and risk management decisions. To the extent that is the case, the record does not currently distinguish between costs driven by system capacity need and costs driven by the timing and structure of procurement. This distinction may be relevant in future proceedings when determining whether all costs are appropriately recoverable from customers and how those costs should be allocated. H. '_von-refundable reservation fee and optionality risk The record establishes that the Company committed to a non-refundable reservation fee to secure turbine manufacturing capacity.' This amount represents approximately_ of the 1 Unit Manufacturing Reservation Agreement,Section 2.lines 40-48- IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 2 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 total project cost )?The Company committed this fee is nonrefundable except in limited seller-default circumstances.' The Company further confirmed it did not notify the Commission, Staff, or other parties prior to making this commitment. This payment has several notable characteristics. First, it is a sunk cost incurred prior to a determination of need or prudence. Second, it reflects a decision to secure optionality(i.e., future access to equipment)rather than a completed investment in a used-and-useful asset.And finally,it transfers procurement timing risk from the Company to customers, if recovered in rates. If this cost is included in rate base or otherwise recovered from customers, it may shift execution and timing risk from shareholders to ratepayers as well as establish precedent for recovery of pre- approval expenditures not contingent on CPCN approval.It may also allocate costs associated with optionality across all customers,regardless of whether those customers drove the underlying need. The record does not quantify what portion of this payment is attributable to system need versus procurement timing,nor does it demonstrate how this allocation of risk is consistent with standard prudence principles. III. Scale of investment and potential rate impact The project's total cost of approximately implies a substantial ongoing revenue requirement.5 Under typical utility financing assumptions(i.e.blended cost of capital and depreciation),this level of capital investment would translate into annual revenue requirements on the order of_ per year. Even small deviations in how these costs are fluictionalized or allocated could result in materially different rate impacts across customer classes. At this scale, a 5-10% misallocation would correspond to several million dollars annually. Furthermore, such differences would persist over the life of the asset; and the effects would compound through subsequent rate cases. The record contains one quantified example of procurement timing cost-- the non- refundable reservation payment made to secure turbine manufacturing capacity.This provides a lower bound on the magnitude of costs attributable to procurement timing and optionality. While the record does not further decompose total project cost, the structure of utility-scale generation procurement allows for a bounded, quasi-quantitative assessment of additional timing related cost drivers based on known externalities. The first externality is the manufacturing timing premium. Gas turbine supply chains are characterized by limited manufacturing capacity and long lead times. Securing an earlier delivery 2 Contract for the Sale of Gas Power Equipment and Related Services.Section 2.1-L lines 75-82. 3 Response to IIPA Request No.1-2,Confidential Attachment;see also Company Response stating no refund if CPCN is denied- 4 Response to IIPA Request No.1-1b. 5 Contract for Sale of Gas Power Egtupment 2.1_1. IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 3 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 position typically requires either upfront reservation payments (such as those observed here), or acceptance of a higher contract price relative to later delivery. The observed reservation fee - is consistent with a non-trivial timing premium. If this payment reflects only the explicit component of securing schedule priority, then the total timing-related premium, including embedded pricing effects, could plausibly exceed this amount. Next, there is an acceleration versus deferral cost tradeoff. From a system planning perspective, procurement timing reflects a tradeoff between the cost of accelerating resource availability (including reservation payments and potential price premiums), and the cost of deferring procurement (i.e. reliability risk, market purchases, or interim solutions). The record does not quantify this tradeoff. However, the presence of a substantial non-refundable payment indicates that the Company assigned material value to acceleration. In absence of comparative analysis,the magnitude of this value cannot be independently evaluated. Exposure to exogenous cost escalation must also be considered. The contract allows for price adjustments due to tariffs and changes in law. Even under conservative assumptions a 3-5% escalation applied to corresponds to ; a 5-10% range corresponds to These values are comparable in scale to the reservation payment and represent additional cost drivers not directly tied to system capacity need. Finally, fuel price sensitivity is a long term cost driver. For a gas-fired resource, lifecycle cost is strongly influenced by fuel price trajectories. Although the Company performed stochastic analysis, the absence of integrated sensitivities in the core model limits visibility into how fuel- driven cost variability compares to capital-related timing costs.Taken together,the record supports the conclusion that at least is directly attributable to procurement timing and optionality, and additional timing-related costs may be embedded in contract pricing but are not separately identified. Finally, other non-need-driven cost drivers (e.g., escalation provisions) could contribute on the order of several million to tens of millions of dollars over the project lifecycle. While these estimates are necessarily approximate, they indicate that a non-trivial share of total project cost may be attributable to procurement timing, risk management, and external factors rather than the underlying provision of capacity. The record does not quantify or isolate these components,which may be relevant in future determinations of prudence, cost recovery, and cost allocation. IV. Incomplete sensitivity analysis within cost effectiveness framework The Company acknowledged that its 20-year cost-effectiveness analysis did not include a natural gas price scenario analysis for the project.' Instead, the Company relied on a separate stochastic 6 Response to BPA Request No.1-1lb_ IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 4 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 analysis using multiple gas price forecasts and reported that the selected portfolio was least cost in 85% of high-gas-price iterations.' While stochastic analysis is informative, its separation from the core decision framework has several implications. To wit, it limits transparency insofar as the Commission is not presented with a consistent set of comparable scenarios within the primary model, and therefore constrains the ability to evaluate how systematically varying the fuel prices assumptions would affect relative resource rankings. In the end, this reduces the clarity regarding the robustness of the selected resources under alternative plausible fuel price trajectories. For a gas-fired resource with long term exposure to fuel price volatility, integrated sensitivity analysis is central to a least cost/least risk determination. The absence of such analysis within the core framework leaves a gap in the record. V. Reliance on external analysis for storage sensitivities The Company indicated that sensitivity analysis for battery storage alternatives is contained in the LEI Closing Report, rather than directly developed within this record.' To the extent that alternative resource sensitivities are not modeled within the same analytical framework and results are not presented on a consistent, side by side comparison basis, the record does not provide a directly comparable evaluation of resource options. This limits the ability to determine whether the selected resource represents the least cost option under a consistent set of assumptions,particularly since storage technologies are often sensitive to input assumptions (e.g., duration, degradation, market participation). VI. Absence of modeling regarding AFL contribution to need The Company confirmed that it conducted no additional modeling or analysis regarding the contribution ofAFL customers to the identified capacity deficits.9 The Company further stated that it does not evaluate system capacity position without AFL, and therefore cannot provide the requested percentages.'0 This has direct implications for cost allocation. If the system need driving the project is not decomposed by customer class, then there is no analytical basis to assign costs in proportion to cost causation and it is not possible to determine whether certain classes are over or under contributing to capacity needs. The end result is that allocation decisions may default to broad averages rather than class-specific drivers. This is particularly significant for a capacity-driven resource, where allocation is typically based on contribution to peak demand or related metrics. 7 Response to IIPA Request No.1-1 Ib. 8 Response to IIPA Request No.1-3b. 9 Response to IIPA Request No.1-5b. 10 Response to IIPA Request No.1-10. IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 5 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 VII. Contractual cost escalation mechanisms The contract allows for adjustments in price due to tariffs and changes in law.11 These provisions introduce uncertain future cost exposure. Given the project scale, even a 5%cost increase would correspond to approximately and such increases could occur after CPCN approval. Absent specific limitations, these costs may be recoverable from customers. The record does not provide quantified bounds on these risks or describe how such incremental costs would be allocated across customer classes. VM. Contractual risk structure The contract includes provisions for: equitable adjustments; excusable events; and capped liquidated damages.12 These provisions suggest that certain risks (e.g., delays, cost increases) may be partially transferred away from the vendor,which means that customer exposure may not be fully offset by damages and residual risk may ultimately be borne through rates. The record does not quantify the magnitude of these risks or demonstrate how they are balanced between shareholders and customers. Conclusion The record in this proceeding demonstrates that the proposed resource involves a large capital investment a material pre-approval,non-refundable cost commitment- - and contractual provisions that allow for cost variability over time. In addition,the record indicates that certain sensitivity analyses are not integrated into the primary cost-effectiveness framework; that class-specific contributions to system capacity need have not been quantified; and that key cost and risk drivers are not explicitly linked to allocation principles. Taken together, these factors suggest that a portion of project costs may be driven not only by underlying system need,but also by procurement timing and contractual structure. To the extent the resource is approved, these distinctions have direct implications for future rate proceedings,including: 1. whether particular costs are deemed prudently incurred and recoverable; 2. how costs are fimctionahzed between capacity, energy, and other services; and 3. whether allocation outcomes align with cost causation or result in cross-subsidization among customer classes. EPA submits these comments to ensure that these issues are clearly reflected in the record and available for full consideration in subsequent COS and rate design proceedings. IIPA reserves all rights to address these matters in those future dockets. 11 Contract Sections 2.1.1 and 14.3. 12 Contract Sections 5,14. IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 6 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 DATED this 3 1" day of July, 2026. ECHO HAWK& OLSEN ERIC L. OLSEN IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 7 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY that on this 31 st day of July, 2026, I served a true, correct and complete copy of the foregoing to each of the following, via method indicated below: Monica Barrios-Sanchez, Commission Secretary ❑ U.S. Mail Idaho Public Utilities Commission ❑ Hand Delivered P.O. Box 83720 ❑ Overnight Mail Boise, ID 83720-0074 ❑ Telecopy(Fax) secretM.,puc.idaho.gov ® Electronic Mail (Email) Kelsea Ross, Deputy Attorney General ❑ U.S. Mail Idaho Public Utilities Commission ❑ Hand Delivered 11331 W. Chinden Blvd., Bldg. No. 8, ❑ Overnight Mail Suite 201-A (83714) ❑ Telecopy(Fax) P.O. Box 83720 ® Electronic Mail (Email) Boise, ID 83720-0074 kelsea.ross&]2uc.Idaho.gov Donovan E. Walker ❑ U.S. Mail Timothy Tatum ❑ Hand Delivered Connie Aschenbrenner ❑ Overnight Mail Idaho Power Company ❑ Telecopy(Fax) 1221 W. Idaho Street(83702) ® Electronic Mail (Email) P.O. Box 70 Boise, ID 83707 dwalker&idahopower.com dockets(&idahopower.com ttatumgidahopower.com caschenbrennergidahopower.com Lance Kaufman, Ph.D. ❑ U.S. Mail Deborah Glosser, Ph.D. ❑ Hand Delivered 2623 NW Bluebell Place ❑ Overnight Mail Corvallis, OR 97330 ❑ Telecopy(Fax) lance(a),ae isg insi hg t.com ® Electronic Mail (Email) deborah. log sserggmail.com IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 8 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04 Austin Rueschhoff ❑ U.S. Mail Thorvald A. Nelson ❑ Hand Delivered Richard A. Arnett ❑ Overnight Mail Holland & Hart LLP ❑ Telecopy(Fax) 555 17th Street, Suite 3200 ® Electronic Mail (Email) Denver, CO 80202 darueschhoff,hollandhart.com tnelson(ir hollandhart.com raarnett(cr�,hollandhart.com acleeghollandhart.com tlfrielghollandhart.com Benjamin J. Otto ❑ U.S. Mail Lauren McCloy ❑ Hand Delivered Derek Goldman ❑ Overnight Mail Northwest Energy Coalition ❑ Telecopy(Fax) 1407 W. Cottonwood Ct. ® Electronic Mail (Email) Boise, ID 83702 bengnwenergy.org lauren(a-nwenergy.org derekgnwenerg�org Benjamin J. Otto ❑ U.S. Mail Mike Goetz ❑ Hand Delivered Aaron Menenburg ❑ Overnight Mail Kyle Unruh ❑ Telecopy(Fax) Renewable Northwest ® Electronic Mail (Email) 1407 W. Cottonwood Ct. Boise, ID 83702 ben(apnwenergy.org mike(arenewablenw.org aarongrenewablenw.org kyle(ab,renewablenw.org Z24'�-- ERIC L. OLSEN IDAHO IRRIGATION PUMPERS ASSOCIATION,INC.WRITTEN COMMENTS—Page 9 CASE NO.IPC-E-26-04