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J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"k#"<"&';"#g3h#8C(',#,'3"%C3+E'#$,%H'*&5%C"#%G#?%N#&?'<#N%8E(#%$',3&'#8C(',# ^+8"5C'""#3"#8"83E_#*%C(5&5%C"#g"8+T?%8,E<#(5"$3&*?#N5&?%8&#3C#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'h#3C(#g+h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gN?5*?#N','#,'E37'(#5C#&?'#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'# ;3,O'&#*3"'"h/#+8&#,3&?',#+<#&?'#,'3ET&5;'#$?<"5*3E#*3$3+5E5&<#%G#&?'#&,3C";5""5%C#"<"&';#3C(#&?'# 3935E3+E'#4'C',3&5C4#8C5&"/#(5"$3&*?'(#3**%,(5C4#&%#'*%C%;5*#;',5&=# M8-8- =3&632&I!'(!B625#67!E&*&(2+,!@#*L&!)#,&,!#*?!S&7!4&*,2+232+2&,! I?'#&3+E'#+'E%N#$,'"'C&"/#5C#"8;;3,<#G%,;/#&?'#*?3,3*&',5"&5*"#%G#&?'#+3"'#*3"'#$,%(8*&5%C# *%"&#;%('E5C4#"&8(<#$',G%,;'(#+<#&?'#@A#BC5&53&59'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;/#3"#N'EE#3"#&?'#O'<# "'C"5&595&<#;%('E5C4#*3"'"=# Case Descriptions Base Base Case 95% (Minimum Achievable Benefits) • 95% Confidence Level (CL) on meeting wind & load forecast error for each BA • Hold reserves constant between EIM and BAU • NW Footprint EIM • $5.62 per MMbtu HH gas price • 2006 Loads and hydro energy to represent average water (2003 in CA). Flex Reserves Base Case 99.5% Increased Confidence Level on meeting wind & load forecast error to 99.5% for each BA. Held reserves constant between EIM and BAU. Reduced EIM Flex Reserve Case Reduced flex reserve obligation in EIM to 95% CL on meeting wind & load forecast error for the NWPP EIM footprint as a single entity. Inefficiencies 3% Holdback Case Reduced hydro and thermal availability by 3% each, so more units commit. 6% Holdback Case Reduced hydro and thermal availability by 6% each, so more units commit. Footprints WECC-wide Case Changed EIM footprint to WECC-wide, otherwise same as Base Case. NWPP EIM w/o PAC Case Changed NWPP EIM footprint to exclude PAC, otherwise same as Base Case. Gas Prices High Gas Case Increased Henry Hub natural gas price to $8.40 per MMbtu. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 15 of 108 !"#$%"&'(#)*&%+',#-./#-0.1# 234'#.-## M 4155#67!'(!S&7!>*#%7+20#%!@&,1%+,!#*?!=3&632&I!'(!S&7!R252+#+2'*,!'(! ;'?&%2*L!>OO6'#0:&,! Low Gas Case Decreased Henry Hub natural gas price to $3.80 per MMbtu. Hydro Alternatives High Water Case Substituted 2011 hydro energy to represent high water WECC-wide. Low Water Case Substituted 2001 hydro energy to represent low water WECC-wide. Hydro Improvement Case Optimized in 12-hour steps to better represent how hydro scheduler works. Each case is presented with a $42.00 per MWh and $57.50 per MWh value for excess hydro generation,* except that high and low gas price cases adjusted excess hydro generation prices to track with the heat rates implied by the calculated level of production from gas-fired generation units and assumed Henry Hub gas prices per MMbtu. *The phase “excess hydro generation” is shorthand reference alluding to difficulty, within the production cost modeling process, of accurately reflecting how operators of hydroelectric projects must often “budget” production capability across multiple time periods to manage myriad constraints, including available water, effects on downstream operations, and legal obligations to fulfill objectives other than power production (such as flood control and mitigation of environmental impacts). This issue is discussed briefly in Section 4.2 of this Final Phase 1 Report and in greater detail in final analytical report included as Appendix 8 to this document. # M8-8C A2L:QR&3&%!4155#67!'(!B6'?10+2'*!)',+!;'?&%2*L!@&,1%+,! I?'#@A#BC5&53&59'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;#N%,O'(#?3,(#&%#$,%95('#L83C&5&3&59'#5C$8&#5C&%#&?'#@A# 23,&5*5$3C&"k# '93E83&5%C# %G# $%&'C&53E# "%E8&5%C"/# $3,&5*8E3,E<# &?'# $,%(8*&5%C# *%"&# "395C4"# gN5&?5C#&?'#M%,&?N'"&#2%N',#2%%E#3,'3h#&?3&#;54?&#+'#435C'(#&?,%84?#3C#6B@=##J3"'(#%C# &?'#5C"&,8*&5%C"#%G#&?'#@A#BC5&53&59'#67'*8&59'#A%;;5&&''/#&?'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;#"%84?&#&%# 5('C&5G<#3#^;5C5;8;#?54?T*%CG5('C*'_#,3C4'#%G#$%&'C&53E#$,%(8*&5%C#*%"&#"395C4"/#8"5C4#&?'# +'"&#"'&#%G#;%('E#5C$8&"#3C(#3""8;$&5%C"#&?'<#*%8E(#('9'E%$=##I?5"#?3"#,'"8E&'(#5C#5C5&53E# +3"'#*3"'#,3C4'"#%G#3$$,%75;3&'E<#lQ0#;5EE5%C#5C#4,%""#3CC83E#"395C4"#3&#&?'#E%N'"&#'C(#%G# &?'#,3C4'/#&%#3#?54?',T'C(#93E8'#%G#3$$,%75;3&'E<#lZ0#;5EE5%C#$',#<'3,/#N5&?#3#C8;+',#%G# ,'E'93C&#"'C"5&595&5'"#*'C&',5C4#5C#&?'#,3C4'#%G#lU0#&%#lW0#;5EE5%C#(%EE3,"=##:'C"5&595&<#*3"'"# '93E83&5C4#?54?#3C(#E%N#?<(,%'E'*&,5*#$,%(8*&5%C#*%C(5&5%C"#3C(#?54?#3C(#E%N#43"#$,5*'"# "?%N'(#$%&'C&53E#%8&*%;'"#+%&?#3+%9'#3C(#+'E%N#&?'"'#$,5;3,<#,3C4'"=# I?'#^*%,'#*3"'_#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'#;3,O'&#+'C'G5&#93E8'"#,3C4'#G,%;#3+%8&#0=Un#&%#.=Sn#%G# &%&3E#3CC83E#$,%(8*&5%C#*%"&"#G%,#&?'#M%,&?N'"&#2%N',#2%%E#3,'3=##I?'"'#93E8'"#(%#C%&# ,'GE'*&#"54C5G5*3C&#3((5&5%C3E#+'C'G5&"#5C(5*3&'(#5C#*3"'"#;%('E5C4#$%&'C&53E#,'(8*&5%C"#5C# GE'75+E'# ,'"',9'# ,'L85,';'C&"/# N?5*?# ;3C<# +'E5'9'#N5EE# +'# 3935E3+E'# &?,%84?# 3C# 'C',4<# 5;+3E3C*'# ;3,O'&#3C(# *%8E(# 3((# l.00# ;5EE5%C# %,# ;%,'# &%# &?'# '7$'*&'(# 3CC83E# +'C'G5&# E'9'E"=##I?'#G%EE%N5C4#&3+E'#"8;;3,5a'"#&?'#,'"8E&"#%G#&?'#*%,'#*3"'#3C(#"'C"5&595&<#;%('E5C4# ,8C"#*%;$E'&'(#+<#&?'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;=# # # Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 16 of 108 !"#$%"&'(#)*&%+',#-./#-0.1# 234'#.1## M 4155#67!'(!S&7!>*#%7+20#%!@&,1%+,!#*?!=3&632&I!'(!S&7!R252+#+2'*,!'(! ;'?&%2*L!>OO6'#0:&,! Case Description Valuation of Excess Hydro Generation* (millions of $2020) Equivalent $42.00 per MWh Equivalent $57.50 per MWh Base Base Case 95% (Minimum Achievable Benefits) $41.2 $70.7 Flex Reserves Base Case 99.5% $51.3 $78.0 Reduced EIM Flex Reserve Case $130.6 $158.2 Inefficiencies 3% Holdback Case $71.2 $90.3 6% Holdback Case $113.7 $124.9 Footprints NW Savings in WECC-wide Case (Indicative Only) $197.0 $233.0 NWPP EIM w/o PAC Case $37.4 $63.2 Gas Prices High Gas Case $79.4 $122.7 Low Gas Case $16.7 $34.8 Hydro Alternatives High Water Case $60.1 $84.9 Low Water Case $17.1 $49.5 Hydro Improvement Case $71.6 $82.2 * Each case is presented with a $42.00 per MWh and $57.50 per MWh value for excess hydro generation. Please see the note at the bottom of the summary table in Section 4.1.1 for an explanation of the term “excess hydro generation.” I?'"'#5C5&53E#,'"8E&"#?39'#+''C#5CG%,;3&59'#G%,#;3C<#%G#&?'#@A#23,&5*5$3C&"/#+8&#3"#;54?&#+'# '7$'*&'(/# &?'<# *3C# +'# 95'N'(# G,%;# 3# 93,5'&<# %G# $',"$'*&59'"/# ,'GE'*&5C4/# 3;%C4# %&?',# &?5C4"i# Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 17 of 108 !"#$%"&'(#)*&%+',#-./#-0.1# 234'#.Q## M 4155#67!'(!S&7!>*#%7+20#%!@&,1%+,!#*?!=3&632&I!'(!S&7!R252+#+2'*,!'(! ;'?&%2*L!>OO6'#0:&,! • (5GG','C&#N'54?&"# 459'C# &%# 8C*',&35C&<# 3""%*53&'(# N5&?# N?3&# 5"# C'*'""3,5E<# 3C# 3""8;$&5%CT(,59'C#;%('E5C4#$,%*'""/# • (5GG','C&# "&,3&'45'"# 3C(# $%"5&5%C"# N5&?5C# &?'# %9',3EE# M%,&?N'"&# 2%N',# 2%%E# ;3,O'&# G%%&$,5C&/# 3"# N'EE# 3"# (5GG','C&# E'9'E"# %G# 8,4'C*<# &%# G5C(# C'3,T&',;# 3C(# E%C4T&',;# "%E8&5%C"#G%,#&?'#5""8'"#('"*,5+'(#5C#&?'#$,%+E';#"&3&';'C&/#3C(# • (5GG',5C4#95'N"#3+%8&#?%N#&?'#+3"5*#E%45*#G%,#%$&5;5a5C4#3#&?',;3EE<#+3"'(#"<"&';#`# %G&'C#('"*,5+'(#3"#3#^?'3&T,3&'#"N3$_#`#;3<#$E3<#%8&#5C#3#;3,O'&#G%%&$,5C&#N?','# %G&'C#?<(,%#$,%(8*&5%C#;54?&#(5"$E3*'#%&?',#?<(,%#$,%(8*&5%C/#N?5*?#5"#;%,'#(5GG5*8E&# &%#*3$&8,'#5C#3#;%('E#&?3&#3""54C"#a',%#*%"&#&%#3EE#?<(,%#$,%(8*&5%C=## M8-8K <%%1,+6#+23&!B#6,2*L!'(!;'?&%&?!.*&6L7!<5$#%#*0&!;#6J&+!E&*&(2+,! !"#,'L8'"&'(#+<#&?'#@A#23,&5*5$3C&"/#&?'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;#'7$E%,'(#$%&'C&53E#3$$,%3*?'"# G%,#'"&5;3&5C4#?%N#&?'#;%('E'(#+'C'G5&"#%G#3C#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'#;3,O'&#;54?&#+'#3EE%*3&'(# g%,#^$3,"'(_h#3;%C4#&?'#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"#$3,&5*5$3&5C4#5C#&?'#@A#BC5&53&59'=##R8'#&%# E5;5&3&5%C"# 5C# &?'# *3$3+5E5&5'"# %G# &?'# $,%(8*&5%C# *%"&# ;%('E# g3"# (5"*8""'(# 5C# :'*&5%C# Q=-# +'E%Nh/#(5,'*&#$3,"5C4#+3"'(#%C#C%(3E#$,5*'"#$,%(8*'(#+<#&?'#;%('E#N3"#C%&#G'3"5+E'=# I?'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;#8E&5;3&'E<#'E'*&'(#&%#8"'#3#"5;$E5G5'(#;'&?%(%E%4<#&?3&#3""8;'(#&?3&# 3C<#5C&,3T?%8,#&,3C"3*&5%C"#+'&N''C#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"#N%8E(#%**8,#%CE<#+'*38"'#+%&?# $3,&5'"#3,'#+'&&',#%GG/#3C(#&?','G%,'#$3,"5C4#,'"8E&"#"?%8E(#"?%N#3EE#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"# ,'*'595C4#3#"?3,'#%G#&?'#;%('E'(#+'C'G5&"=##I?'#$3,"5C4#;'&?%(%E%4<#;'3"8,'(#&?'#9%E8;'# %G# 5C&,3T?%8,# &,3C"3*&5%C"# +'&N''C# J3E3C*5C4# !8&?%,5&5'"/# 3C(# &?'C# 3""8;'(# &?3&# &?'# $,%$%,&5%C#%G#&%&3E#3CC83E#+'C'G5&"#*3E*8E3&'(#G,%;#&?'#$,%(8*&5%C#*%"&#;%('E#N%8E(#GE%N# &%# &?'#J3E3C*5C4# !8&?%,5&5'"# 5C# $,%$%,&5%C# &%# &?'5,# ,'"$'*&59'# "?3,'"# %G# &?'# %9',3EE# &,3C"3*&5%C#9%E8;'=# I?5"#N3"#&?'#;%"&#N%,O3+E'#3$$,%3*?#&?'#!C3E<&5*3E#I'3;#N3"#3+E'#&%#5('C&5G</#+8&#5&#5"#C%&# C'*'""3,5E<# ,'$,'"'C&3&59'# %G# &?'# 3*&83E# +'C'G5&"# 3C<# $3,&5*8E3,# ;3,O'&# $3,&5*5$3C&# %,# J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&<#N%8E(#'7$',5'C*'=##!*&83E#+'C'G5&"#*%8E(#+'#3GG'*&'(#+<#;3C<#G3*&%,"# &?'#;'&?%(%E%4<#*%8E(#C%&#*3$&8,'/#"8*?#3"#%9',3EE#;3,O'&#"?3,'/#;3,O'&#$%"5&5%C/#;3,O'&# "?5G&"/# *%C(5&5%C"# &?3&# 5CGE8'C*'#%$',3&5%C"# %,# 5C(595(83E# $',G%,;3C*'# 5C# *%;$'&5&59'# ;3,O'&"/#*%C4'"&5%C/#&,'3&;'C&#%G#&,3C";5""5%C#8"34'#G%,#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'#&,3C"3*&5%C"/# 3C(#G''"#%,#*%"&"#%,#,'9'C8'#C'8&,3E5&<#$3<;'C&"#%,#*?3,4'"#3""%*53&'(#N5&?#$3,&5*5$3&5C4#5C# &?'#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'#;3,O'&=### @%,'%9',/#3E&?%84?#&?'#$3,"5C4#$,%*'""#"%84?&#&%#3""%*53&'#4,%""#+'C'G5&"#;%('E'(#G%,#&?'# M%,&?N'"&#2%N',#2%%E#3,'3#N5&?#$3,&5*8E3,#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"/#5&#(%'"#C%&#C'*'""3,5E<# G%EE%N#&?3&#&?'#*3E*8E3&'(#+'C'G5&"#N%8E(#GE%N#&%#&?'#%$',3&%,#%G#&?3&#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&</# %,# &%# &?'# E%3("# N5&?5C# &?3&# J3E3C*5C4# !8&?%,5&<=# # I?'# $3,"5C4# ,'"8E&"# "5;$E<# ,'GE'*&# &?'# Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 18 of 108 !"#$%"&'(#)*&%+',#-./#-0.1# 234'#.S## M 4155#67!'(!S&7!>*#%7+20#%!@&,1%+,!#*?!=3&632&I!'(!S&7!R252+#+2'*,!'(! ;'?&%2*L!>OO6'#0:&,! '"&5;3&'(#&,3C"3*&5%C#9%E8;'#5C&%#3C(#%8&#%G#$3,&5*8E3,#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&5'"/#+8&#$,%95('# C%#5CG%,;3&5%C#3+%8&#N?5*?#$3,&5'"#3,'#3*&83EE<#&,3C"3*&5C4#%,#N?3&#&?'<#;54?&#(%#N5&?#3C<# "395C4"# %,# 3((5&5%C3E# '3,C5C4"# &?'<# 435C# &?,%84?# $3,&5*5$3&5%C# 5C# &?'# 'C',4<# 5;+3E3C*'# ;3,O'&=# I?'#&3+E'#%C#&?'#G%EE%N5C4#$34'#$,'"'C&"#$3,"5C4#,'"8E&"#G%,#&?'#E%N',#'C(#*3E*8E3&5%C#%G#&?'# 'C',4<# 5;+3E3C*'#;3,O'&#^+3"'# *3"'=_##!((5&5%C3E# &3+E'"# N5&?# $3,"'(# ,'"8E&"#G%,# %&?',# ;%('E5C4#*3"'"#g3EE#(',59'(#G,%;#&?'#"3;'#J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&<#$',*'C&34'"#8"'(#G%,#&?'# +3"'#*3"'h#3,'#5C*E8('(#5C#!$$'C(57#1#&%#&?5"#(%*8;'C&=# Parsed BA Benefits in 2020 #(in $000s at $42.00 per MWh value for excess hydro generation) # M8C R252+#+2'*,!'(!+:&!B6'?10+2'*!)',+!;'?&%2*L!B6'0&,,! 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Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 54 of 108 # ( (!$$'C(57#-#`#234'#.( ## APPENDIX 2 Additional Background on the MC Initiative # b'C',3E#J3*O4,%8C(# !&#&?'#+'45CC5C4#%G#-0.-/#&?'#*?3EE'C4'"#%G#93,53+E'#'C',4<#,'"%8,*'#5C&'4,3&5%C/#'GG5*5'C&#4,5(# %$',3&5%C"/#3C(#%9',3EE#"<"&';#,'E53+5E5&<#?3(#+''C#?54?#%C#&?'#,'45%C3E#3C(#C3&5%C3E#34'C(3#G%,# "'9',3E#<'3,"=##I?5"#N3"#,'GE'*&'(#5C#(5"*8""5%C"#3C(#"&8(5'"#*%C(8*&'(#&?,%84?#&?'#>'"&',C# 6E'*&,5*5&<#A%%,(5C3&5C4#A%8C*5E#g^>6AA_h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b,%8$# +3CC',#&%#*3,,<#G%,N3,(#N?','#&?'#>6AA#"&8(5'"#E'G&#%GG=##I?'#2KA#6B@#b,%8$#'C434'(#&?'# M3&5%C3E#D'C'N3E#6C',4<#V3+%,3&%,<#&%#*%C(8*&#3((5&5%C3E#$,%(8*&5%C#*%"&#;%('E5C4#"&8(5'"#%G# 3#>'"&TN5('#'C',4<#5;+3E3C*'#;3,O'&/#+8&#&?','#N3"#*%C"5(',3+E'#*%C&,%9',"<#%9',#&?'#,'"8E&"# %G#&?%"'#"&8(5'"=# >5&?#&?'"'#*%C*',C"#3C(#'9'C&"#3"#3#+3*O(,%$/#3C(#3G&',#"'9',3E#;%C&?"#%G#(5"*8""5%C"/#"'C5%,# '7'*8&59'"#%G#&?'#M%,&?N'"&#2%N',#2%%E#;';+',"?5$#;'&#5C#:'3&&E'/#>3"?5C4&%C#%C#@3,*?#.Z/# -0.-#3C(#E38C*?'(#&?'#@3,O'&#!""'"";'C&#3C(#A%%,(5C3&5%C#BC5&53&59'#g^@A#BC5&53&59'_h=# @A#23,&5*5$3C&"# IN'C&<T&N%#%,43C5a3&5%C"#5C#&?'#M%,&?N'"&#2%N',#2%%E#3,'3#G%,;3EE<#*%;;5&&'(#&%#G8C(#3C(# $3,&5*5$3&'# 5C# &?'# @A# BC5&53&59'=# # I?'"'# %,43C5a3&5%C"/# N?5*?# 3,'# ,'G',,'(# &%# 3"# ^@A# 23,&5*5$3C&"/_#3,'i# • !95"&3#A%,$%,3&5%C# • J3E3C*5C4#!8&?%,5&<#%G#M%,&?',C#A3E5G%,C53# • J%CC'95EE'#2%N',#!(;5C5"&,3&5%C# • J,5&5"?#A%E8;+53#F<(,%#3C(#2%N',#!8&?%,5&<# • 684'C'#>3&',#o#6E'*&,5*#J%3,(# • B+',(,%E3#D'C'N3+E'"/#VVA# • B(3?%#2%N',#A%;$3C<# • M3&8,6C',#>5C(#F%E(5C4/#VVA# • M%,&?>'"&',C#6C',4<# Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 55 of 108 # ( (!$$'C(57#-#`#234'#-( ###( • 23*5G5A%,$# • 2%,&E3C(#b'C',3E#6E'*&,5*#A%;$3C<# • 284'&#:%8C(#6C',4<# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#.#%G#A?'E3C#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#.#%G#AE3,O#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#.#%G#A%NE5&a#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#.#%G#R%84E3"#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#-#%G#b,3C&#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • 28+E5*#K&5E5&<#R5"&,5*&#M%=#.#%G#:C%?%;5"?#A%8C&</#>3"?5C4&%C# • :'3&&E'#A5&<#V54?&# • I3*%;3#2%N',# • I8,E%*O#B,,543&5%C#R5"&,5*&# • >'"&',C#!,'3#2%N',#!(;5C5"&,3&5%C/#K$$',#b,'3&#2E35C"# # ),43C5a3&5%C3E#:&,8*&8,'# I?'#%9',3EE#%,43C5a3&5%C3E#"&,8*&8,'#%G#&?'#@A#BC5&53&59'#5"#('$5*&'(#5C#&?'#(534,3;#%C#&?'#C'7&# $34'#%G#&?5"#3$$'C(57/#3**%;$3C5'(#%C#&?'#$34'#&?3&#G%EE%N"#+<#3#;%,'#('&35E'(#(534,3;#%G#&?'# ;35C#&'*?C5*3E#N%,O#4,%8$"#*?3,&','(#+<#&?'#@3,O'&#!""'"";'C&#3C(#A%%,(5C3&5%C#A%;;5&&''=# Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 56 of 108 ! ! !!!"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! !! ! /!!01$2$!34'-51!6,7!7899$$&$&!,7!:;<:5,'4!;=!15$!>($981'2$!:;??'11$$!@A!B'CC!D48??;%&!;%!E$@48,4A!FG!)HF.! !! Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 57 of 108 ! ! ! !!!"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 58 of 108 ! ! !!!"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! !! APPENDIX 3 “Parsed” Benefit Results for All Production Cost Modeling Cases /$$!/$01'2%!34.4)!25!16$!7'%,8!+6,9$!.!:$#2;1!52;!,%!$(#8,%,1'2%!25!16$!<$162&282-=!>9$&!12!0,80>8,1$!#,;9$&!?$%$5'194!!@21$!,892!16,1!16$!#,;9'%-! <$162&282-=!&'&!%21!,11$<#1!12!'&$%1'5=!16$!#,;1'0>8,;!#,;1'$9!12!A6'06!?$%$5'19!,9920',1$&!A'16!,!-'B$%!C,8,%0'%-!">162;'1=!<'-61!582A4!!D6$! ?$%$5'19!962A%!?$82A!A2>8&!%21!%$0$99,;'8=!,00;>$!12!16$!2#$;,12;!25!16$!C,8,%0'%-!">162;'1=!2;!12!16$!82,&9!A'16'%!16,1!C,8,%0'%-!">162;'1=4! Parsed BA Benefits in 2020 !(in $000s at $42.00 per MWh value for excess hydro generation) Base Case 95%Hydro Imprvmnt 3% Holdback 6% Holdback Reduced EIM Flex Case Case Case Reserve Case AVA 4.77%$1,963 $3,413 $3,398 $4,862 $6,228 BCTC 17.59%$7,239 $12,588 $12,531 $17,928 $22,965 BPA 25.77%$10,605 $18,441 $18,359 $26,265 $33,644 IPC 5.22%$2,148 $3,735 $3,719 $5,320 $6,815 MidC 3.38%$1,391 $2,419 $2,408 $3,445 $4,413 NWMT 3.64%$1,498 $2,605 $2,593 $3,710 $4,752 PAC 9.85%$4,053 $7,049 $7,017 $10,039 $12,860 PGN 5.11%$2,103 $3,657 $3,640 $5,208 $6,671 PSE 5.03%$2,070 $3,600 $3,583 $5,127 $6,567 SCL 6.90%$2,839 $4,938 $4,916 $7,032 $9,008 SMUD 9.25%$3,807 $6,619 $6,590 $9,428 $12,076 TIDC 1.84%$757 $1,317 $1,311 $1,875 $2,402 TPWR 1.33%$547 $952 $948 $1,356 $1,736 WAUW 0.32%$132 $229 $228 $326 $418 NWPP 100.00%$41,152 $71,561 $71,241 $101,920 $130,556 Authority Balancing BANC Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 59 of 108 ! ! ! !!!"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! Parsed BA Benefits in 2020 !(in $000s at $57.50 per MWh value for excess hydro generation) Base Case 95%Hydro Imprvmnt 3% Holdback 6% Holdback Reduced EIM Flex Case Case Case Reserve Case AVA 4.77%$3,373 $3,921 $4,309 $5,397 $7,546 BCTC 17.59%$12,437 $14,460 $15,891 $19,902 $27,828 BPA 25.77%$18,221 $21,184 $23,281 $29,158 $40,769 IPC 5.22%$3,691 $4,291 $4,716 $5,906 $8,258 MidC 3.38%$2,390 $2,779 $3,054 $3,824 $5,347 NWMT 3.64%$2,574 $2,992 $3,288 $4,119 $5,759 PAC 9.85%$6,965 $8,097 $8,899 $11,145 $15,583 PGN 5.11%$3,613 $4,201 $4,617 $5,782 $8,084 PSE 5.03%$3,557 $4,135 $4,544 $5,691 $7,958 SCL 6.90%$4,879 $5,672 $6,234 $7,807 $10,916 SMUD 9.25%$6,540 $7,604 $8,357 $10,466 $14,634 TIDC 1.84%$1,301 $1,513 $1,662 $2,082 $2,911 TPWR 1.33%$940 $1,093 $1,202 $1,505 $2,104 WAUW 0.32%$226 $263 $289 $362 $506 NWPP 100.00%$70,707 $82,205 $90,343 $113,146 $158,204 Balancing Authority BANC Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 60 of 108 ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! "##$%&'(!)! ! *+,,+-./0!1232452!"33.367/82!#4+0479!:;.62!#7<24! ! Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 61 of 108 1 APPENDIX 4 Following Reserve Assistance Program (FRAP) Document date: July 3, 2013 !"#$%&'(&)'*+%*+,& !"#$%&'(#)*%++,-.)//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)0) 1/)2#3'4'&'54)53)6#-+7)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)8) 9/)2#7$-':&'54)53);54$#:&)//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)<) ;/)!":#$&#=)>%&$5+#),4=)9#4#3'&7)53)?@1A)//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)B) 2/)>:#-,&'4C)@%D#7)?5-)*E,=5F),4=)?'#D=)6-',D7)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)G) 1.)Key Operating Elements)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)G) 1.1.)Available Following (“Program”) Reserve)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)G) 1.2.)Protocols for Requesting Following Assistance)///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)G) 1.3.)Staged Implementation)//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)G) 1.4.)BA Participation in Trials)//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HI) 2.)Relationship to the NERC Standards BAL-001)///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HH) 3.)Requesting Following Assistance)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HH) 3.1.)Qualifying Events)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HH) 3.2.)Maximum Following Assistance Request)////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HH) 3.3.)Obligation to Provide Following Assistance)///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HJ) 3.4.)Length of Request)////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)H0) 3.5.)Determination of Following Assistance Request)///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)H8) 3.6.)Request Distribution)////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)H8) 3.7.)Transmission Usage (Applies to Field Trial Only))///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)H8) 3.8.)Accounting (Applies to Field Trial Only))////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HK) 4.)Obligation to Provide)////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HK) 5.)Other Roles & Responsibility)/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HK) 5.1.)NWPP Staff)////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)HK) 5.2.)Participating BA Responsibilities)///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////)H<) Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 62 of 108 2 6.!Data Requirements for Shadow Trial!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#$! 7.!Communication Requirements For Field Trial!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#$! 7.1.!Data Telemetered from Participating BAs to the Following Assistance Computer%!"""""""""""""""""!#$! 7.2.!Participants Responsible for WECC Data Pool Information!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#&! 7.3.!Functions of the Following Assistance Computer System!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#&! 8.!Settlements (Applies to Field Trial Only)!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#&! 9.!Tracking and Reporting!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#&! 10.!Procedures for Communications or Software/Hardware Failure (Applies to Field Trial Only)!""""""!#'! 11.!Training!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#'! ("!)*+,-.+/0122*.34+535-/!3*!6-7.+!89.*4:9!39-!8.57;/!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#'! <"!=5>-./53?!@+7;?/5/!7+A!<B@C!D-+-E53/!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#F! 1.!Diversity Analysis Objectives!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!#F! 2.!Analysis Methodology!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GH! 2.1.!Cleaning of the Data!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GH! 2.2.!Establishment of Program Reserve Deployed and Program Reserve Held!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GH! 2.3.!Assumptions used for Requesting BAs!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GH! 2.4.!Assumptions used for Providing BAs!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!G#! 2.5.!Calculation Assumptions!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!G#! 3.!Diversity Analysis Results!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GG! 4.!Concept Analysis Results!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GG! I"!C.*:.7J!)*/3/!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GK! 1.!Shadow Trial!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GK! 2.!Field Trial!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GL! M"!(N7J2;-/!*E!<*;;*O5+:!@//5/37+,-!)*+,-23!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GL! P"!@337,9J-+3/!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""!GL! ! Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 63 of 108 3 ! "#$%&'()$!*&++,-.! The NWPP members have a history of developing regional assistance programs to improve system reliability and reduce operating risk. Programs include the Pacific Northwest Coordinating Agreement, Coordinated Outage System, and the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. These programs have provided significant benefits to the membership. The membership is proposing another assistance program to improve system reliability and reduce operating risk. The program takes advantage of the load and generation diversity that exists in the NWPP footprint to meet current generation ramping requirements associated with variable energy integration and non-conforming load. The Following Reserve Assistance Program (FRAP) takes advantage of the diversity that exists among all of the BAs in the NWPP. Each BA’s load and generation can fluctuate at different times within the day. By taking advantage of this diversity, BAs are able to assist each other by providing a portion of their non-deployed reserve to other BAs that are experiencing large load or generation variations. If a BA is holding reserve to meet potential in-hour variations but hasn’t fully deployed it, then through the Following Reserve Assistance Program the BA can offer a portion of its held reserve to another participant who is experiencing a significant variation and has deployed almost all of its available reserve. In order to request assistance a Requesting BA must meet specific requirements defined as a Qualifying Event. The size of a Following Assistance Request initiated by a Requesting BA and the amount of assistance a Supplying BA will be required to provide are both limited by the program operating rules. This will ensure that a Supplying BA doesn’t enter a risky operating condition by providing assistance and a Requesting BA uses a significant portion of its own reserve before initiating a request. A thorough analysis was conducted to evaluate the existing regional load and generation diversity and determine potential benefits of operating under the proposed Following Reserve Assistance Program. The results of the analysis show that the region as a whole as well as each of the individual participating BAs benefit from operating under the Following Reserve Assistance Program. The portion of the analysis evaluating load and generation diversity used actual 2011 data to observe the levels of within-hour load and resource variability on each of the Balancing Authorities’ systems and how the Balancing Authorities deployed following reserve to manage this variability. The portion of the analysis evaluating load and generation diversity used actual 2011 data to observe the levels of within-hour load and resource variability on each of the Balancing Authorities’ systems and how the Balancing Authorities deployed following reserve to manage this variability. Measuring diversity did not require knowledge or assumptions about levels of Program Reserve the Balancing Authorities carried into each hourly operating period in 2011. However, in estimating potential opportunities to share Program Reserve among Balancing Authorities, the small team did assume that every Balancing Authority would carry, at all times, sufficient Program Reserve to meet the maximum load and generation variability occurring on its system during 95% of the hours within the year. Based on this analysis, the small team concluded that if the region were to operate as a single BA with no operating or transmission restrictions the total amount of deployed in-hour reserve was Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 64 of 108 4 reduced by 59% from 1871 MW to 771 MW. The reduction in individual BA Program Reserve deployed ranges from 24% to 99%. The difference in percent reduction depends upon the size of the BA and the amount of interconnected variable generation. When the Following Reserve Assistance Program protocols were implemented the total amount of deployed reserves were reduced by 29% (549 MW) to 1322 MW. The percent reduction for the individual BAs ranged from 18% to 33%. The small team did not attempt to compute potential monetary benefits of the Following Reserve Assistance Program in this analysis, unlike the production cost studies performed to estimate the benefits of an energy imbalance market. But production cost studies related to an energy imbalance market did yield similar conclusions concerning load and resource diversity. Based on the positive analysis results the region is proposing to conduct a staged implementation of the Following Reserve Assistance Program. Initially a six-month shadow trial will be conducted to collect additional data and evaluate proposed operating rules. The shadow trial will not directly impact operations since it only involves data exchange. Participants will provide forecasts and actual data that will be used in an after the fact analysis to determine when a BA was eligible to call on Following Reserve Assistance and how the request impacts both the receiving and supplying BA. Collecting data on the amount of Program Reserve carried within each operating hour by each BA will facilitate a more thorough estimate of the potential reductions in Program Reserve deployed and calculation of a range of possible monetary benefits that might be derived from the Following Reserve Assistance Program. During the shadow trial participants will continue to work on required procedures to consistently measure the amount of deployed reserve and determine the appropriate settlement price for the delivery of reserve. These are required in order to transition into an actual field trial. If participants agree to move the concept forward then an actual field trial would be conducted with the intent of long term operation either until an Energy Imbalance Market is created or to operate in parallel with an Energy Imbalance Market. !"#$%&'(')'*(#*&#+%,-.# 1. NWPP: The geographic area encompassed by the electric systems of the organizations that are parties to the Northwest Power Pool Agreement. As described in the Northwest Power Pool Agreement, this area includes the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming; portions of northern California and northern Nevada; and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. There is also a separate corporation named “Northwest Power Pool,” which provides staffing and other resources to support implementation of the Northwest Power Pool Agreement. In general, when this document refers to the Northwest Power Pool, the NWPP, the NWPP area, or the NWPP footprint, it is referring to the geographic area and the associated electric power systems of the organizations that are parties to the Northwest Power Pool Agreement. 2. NWPP Staff: The employees of the Northwest Power Pool corporation. 3. Balancing Authority (BA): !An entity that operates a balancing authority (as defined by NERC). Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 65 of 108 5 4. Participating BA: A Balancing Authority that has agreed to participate in the NWPP Following Assistance Procedures. 5. Requesting BA: A Participating BA that experiences a Qualifying Event and requests Following Assistance. 6. Supplying BA: A Participating BA that supplies Following Assistance in response to a Following Assistance Request. 7. Contingency Reserve Sharing Program: The procedures, data, computer programs, and related information and requirements, as described in the Northwest Power Pool Reserve Sharing Program Documentation, that enable the organizations that participate in the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program to share Contingency Reserve (as defined by NERC) in response to certain defined events. 8. Reserve Sharing Zone: A zone encompassing the balancing authority area(s) of a Participating BA (or a group of Participating BAs) that is separated from the balancing authority area(s) of remaining Participating BAs by a constrained transmission path. Attachment C to the Northwest Power Pool Reserve Sharing Program Documentation identifies the Reserve Sharing Zones that have been established for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. The Reserve Sharing Zones for purposes of the NWPP Following Assistance Procedures will be the same as the Reserve Sharing Zones for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Accordingly, any modifications to the Reserve Sharing Zones for purposes of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program will be incorporated into the NWPP Following Assistance Procedures. 9. Following Assistance: Program Reserve of one Participating BPA that is delivered to another Participating BA in response to a Following Assistance Request. 10. Available Reserve: All within hour reserve held by a Participating BA to maintain load and resource balance. 11. Following Assistance Request: A request by Participating BA that has satisfied the applicable conditions described in the NWPP Following Assistance Procedures for eligibility to receive Following Assistance. 12. Qualifying Event: The events specified in Part D, Section 3.1 of this document. 13. Program Reserve: The amount of within-hour reserve held to meet error between forecasts and actual load and generation excluding Contingency Reserve and Frequency Response Reserve. 14. Program Reserve Available: Program Reserve not deployed at any given point within the hour. 15. Program Reserve Deployed: Program Reserve deployed at any given point within the hour, including assistance being provided or received from the Following Reserve Assistance Program. 16. [NWPP] Following Assistance Procedures: The procedures, data, computer programs, and related information and requirements described in this document that enable Participating BAs to request and provide Following Assistance as needed to respond to Qualifying Events. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 66 of 108 6 17. Following Assistance Computer System: The software and hardware used to automate requests for and delivery of Following Assistance under the NWPP Following Assistance Procedures. !"#$%&'()*+),-#,.#/,-'%*+# The NWPP members have a history of developing regional assistance programs to improve system reliability and reduce operating risk. Programs include the Pacific Northwest Coordinating Agreement, Coordinated Outage System, and the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. These programs have provided significant benefits to the membership. The membership is proposing another assistance program to improve system reliability by reducing operating risk. The program takes advantage of the load and generation diversity that exists in the NWPP footprint. Every BA in the region is required to maintain sufficient operating reserve to meet within hour variability caused by generation and load variations. Reserve is held for multiple reasons including loss of generation (Contingency Reserve), interconnected frequency support (Frequency Responsive Reserve), moment to moment load and generation variations (Regulation), and within hour scheduling variations (Balancing, Flex or Following). Each BA within the NWPP determines the within hour regulating reserve it needs differently. The current NERC reliability standards don’t include a prescriptive Following Reserve methodology to meet within hour variations. However, FERC has directed in Order 693 that a standard methodology be developed. The Following Reserve Assistance Program (FRAP) takes advantage of the diversity that exists among all of the BAs in the NWPP. Each BA’s load and generation can fluctuate at different times within the day. By taking advantage of this diversity, BAs are able to assist each other by providing a portion of their non-deployed reserve to other BAs that are experiencing large load or generation variations. If a BA is holding reserve to meet potential in-hour variations but hasn’t fully deployed it, then through the FRAP the BA can offer a portion of its held reserve to another participant who is experiencing a significant variation and has deployed most of its reserve. In order to request assistance a Requesting BA must meet specific requirements defined as a Qualifying Event. The size of a Following Assistance Request initiated by a Requesting BA and the amount of assistance a Supplying BA will be required to provide are both limited by the program operating rules. This will ensure that a Supplying BA doesn’t enter a risky operating condition by providing assistance and a Requesting BA uses a significant portion of its own reserve before initiating a request. A general description of the FRAP concept is provided below. Detailed operating rules are provided in Section D. Some of the key features of the Following Reserve Assistance Program are as follows: 1. The Following Reserve Assistance Program is an operating tool to assist Participating BAs to improve system reliability by reducing operating risk. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 67 of 108 7 2. The Following Reserve Assistance Program is based on requirement that all Participating BAs maintain on their own systems sufficient reserve capacity to fully meet their individual reserve needs under reasonably anticipated, normal operating conditions. 3. During extreme ramp events, the support of the pooled reserve capacity of the Participating BAs will help the BAs experiencing the deviations to maintain system balance. 4. The Following Reserve Assistance Program enables automated assistance by all Participating BAs of a portion of their Program Reserve Available when a Qualifying Event occurs and a Following Assistance Request is initiated. a. The Following Reserve Assistance Program is implemented through a centralized computer system (analogous to or the same as the computer system used to implement the Contingency Reserve Program) b. No separate operator or entity is needed c. Requesting BA is allowed to request assistance if a Qualifying Event is met d. Following Assistance Computer System receives request signal(s) and automatically sends Following Assistance Requests to Participating BAs according to the Following Assistance Procedures e. Transmission availability is recognized and treated as a constraint (based on actual, not scheduled, real-time flows on relevant tie-lines, and contract rights where applicable) f. Maintain existing Zones (sometimes referred to as “bubbles”) as defined in Contingency Reserve Sharing Program g. A Participating BA that has requested Following Assistance is exempt from providing Following Assistance while its request is in effect h. Participating BAs are not obligated to request Following Assistance simply because they experience a Qualifying Event. Use of Following Assistance is at the option of the “qualifying” BA, but all Participating BAs with sufficient Program Reserve Available must respond to other Participating BAs’ Assistance Requests up to the agreed-upon maximum levels. 5. FRAP relationship to Control Performance Standards (CPS1 and CPS2) and Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL), also referred to as Reliability-Based Control (RBC): a. Expected to have no impact on CPS1 b. Can accommodate CPS2 or BAAL c. Participating BAs are expected to meet CPS1 and CPS2 or BAAL requirements individually 6. Concept will be vetted through a staged approach. A shadow field trial will be implemented first to collect real-time data and evaluate initial operating rules. A field trial may be implemented if the shadow trial is successful and participants agree to move forward. The long term goal is full program implementation. 7. Settlement methodology will be determined after shadow field trial and will require FERC acceptance. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 68 of 108 8 8. Following Assistance transactions will be tagged after the fact similar to the Contingency Reserve Program. !"#$%&'()'*#+,)(-.'#/0*#1'0'23)4#-2#5678# The Following Reserve Assistance Program concept will provide multiple benefits to Participating BAs. Anticipated benefits include: 1. Diversity study and FRAP analysis utilized real data, not models 2. Provides BAs with another ‘automated’ tool to support reliability in the region 3. Automates the process for BAs to procure assistance from others, prior to entering an Energy Emergency Alert – Level 1 4. Captures regional load and generation diversity 5. Assists BAs with large load or generation deviations 6. Leverages the existing Contingency Reserve Sharing Program infrastructure and concepts 7. Allows non deployed in-hour Program Reserve to be shared 8. Accesses only the first 50% of a BAs planned resource stack and therefore should not result in adverse, uneconomic dispatch 9. Has ‘guard rails’ to protect assisting BAs from putting themselves at unreasonable risk 10. Reduces risk of schedule cuts or curtailments during extreme load or generation deviations not encompassed by the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program 11. Easy to implement at low cost compared to other proposed solutions 12. Staged implementation schedule which allows for program improvements – start with a shadow trial (limited operational impact), proceed to field trial (short term evaluation), ends in continuous operation (long term benefits) 13. Works within existing bilateral market, and does not impede bilateral trading activities 14. Could help inform resource sufficiency methodology associated with operating an EIM 15. May work within an EIM structure 16. Does not shift any NERC Reliability Standard Compliance responsibility to another participant 17. Provides data and operating experience to assist with the development of a common regional reserve methodology. FERC Order 693 directs the development of a common reserve methodology through changes to the NERC BAL Standards (BAL- 001 and BAL-005) 18. Future opportunity to reduce individual BA reserve requirements following field trials and NERC standard modifications Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 69 of 108 9 !"#$%&'()*+,#-./&0#12'#34(526#(+5#1*&/5#7'*(/0# The operating rules discussed below were developed to facilitate a shadow trial (data collection and analysis only) and a short-term field trial to test the Following Reserve Assistance Program concept. The operating rules will be reviewed and modified as the concept matures into a long-term program. 1. Key Operating Elements 1.1.Available Following (“Program”) Reserve In order to determine the load and generation diversity that exists among the Participating BAs in the NWPP footprint, an analysis was completed using actual data from 2011. Results are provided in Section F. The analysis shows there is opportunity to share as much as 50% of the current in-hour reserve that is held today assuming no operating or transmission system limitations and each participant holds enough Program Reserve to meet 95% of its anticipated need. The proposed program operating rules and potential transmission limitations reduce the potential sharing but still provide significant opportunity to take advantage of regional diversity. 1.2.Protocols for Requesting Following Assistance Each Participating BA is allowed to request Following Assistance if it has met the requirements of a Qualifying Event described in section D.3.1. A Following Assistance Request allows a Requesting BA to return ACE to a reliable operating point without deploying all of its held Program Reserve. Program rules limit the amount of assistance that a participant can request and the amount of assistance an individual participant must provide. These limits can be adjusted as the program matures. 1.3.Staged Implementation To help all of the NWPP BAs better understand the benefits, operation, and effects of the Following Reserve Assistance Program, and to provide additional time to consider suitable settlement provisions and consult with regulatory authorities as appropriate, the Following Reserve Assistance Program Work Group recommends a staged implementation of the program. The implementation stages would include; a shadow trial, a field trial, and long-term operation. The shadow trial will be limited to incremental requests only. After operational experience is gained the program may be modified to allow decremental (DEC) requests. a. Shadow Trial During the shadow trial the Following Reserve Assistance Program procedures will not actually be implemented in real-time, but data will be gathered in real-time and analyzed after the fact to allow all affected parties to assess what would have happened had the program been in effect. The primary objectives of the shadow trial are: i. No direct impact to current operations other than collecting and submitting hourly information Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 70 of 108 10 ii. Perform additional analysis with current operating data to evaluate the effectiveness and benefits of the concept without requiring participants to change current operating procedures iii. Provide additional time and information to develop a consistent minimum level of Program Reserve held and shared (potential common methodology) iv. Develop Program Reserve Deployed methodology v. Educate and train BA personnel including operators vi. Develop a settlement methodology required for a field trial vii. Discuss concept with FERC and other regulatory entities b. Field Trial After the successful completion of a shadow trial the Following Reserve Assistance Program will need to be vetted through an operational field trial. The field trial would expand on the shadow trial and allow Participating BAs to understand how the Following Reserve Assistance Program would operate in real time based on the operating protocols. Ideally the field trial should occur over as many operating conditions and seasons as possible to provide a full understanding of the benefits and impacts of the program. The primary objectives of the field trial are: i. Determine actual operational benefits ii. Evaluate the impact to the transmission system iii. Evaluate the settlement methodology iv. Evaluate level of Program Reserve held and shared v. Evaluate Program Reserve Deployed methodology vi. Collect real-time information to include in regulatory filings c. Long-Term Operation The final stage of the phased implementation approach is the long-term operation of the Following Reserve Assistance Program. Data gathered from the shadow and field trials will help define the final operating rules and settlement methodology. The work group believes that the Following Reserve Assistance Program may be able to operate in parallel and supplement an active EIM. At a minimum the Following Reserve Assistance Program could be implemented to benefit the region until a fully functioning EIM is running. 1.4. BA Participation in Trials In order to fully evaluate the benefits and risks of the Following Reserve Assistance Program, all BAs in the NWPP (including those not currently funding the Market Assessment and Coordination Committee (MC) initiative) will be requested to participate in the proposed shadow and field trials. Because the concept is built on the current Contingency Reserve Sharing Program and treats transmission the same way, it is beneficial to have full regional support and participation. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 71 of 108 11 2. Relationship to the NERC Standards BAL-001 The initial development of the Following Reserve Assistance Program will require each Participating BA to meet the current Control Performance Standard (CPS) requirements in BAL-001 individually. For those BAs participating in the WECC Reliability Based Control (RBC) field trial (also defined by NERC as BAAL), the NERC BAL requirements are different but individual compliance must be maintained. If the RBC concept is approved through the NERC standard development process, then all participating BAs will be required to meet the BAAL requirements instead of CPS2 on an individual basis per the approved NERC implementation plan. In Order 693 FERC directed changes to NERC BAL Standards to include a common reserve methodology. Also, currently proposed changes to NERC Standard BAL-001 would allow BAs to meet CPS1 requirements as a sharing group. The information and experience gained through the proposed FRAP field trials will assist the NWPP region in the development and implementation of a common reserve methodology. The FRAP program can be adjusted according to new or modified standard requirements. 3. Requesting Following Assistance Specific operating rules have been developed to balance the benefits of sharing Program Reserve while minimizing potential burdens and risks to Participating BAs. The rules can be adjusted based on results of the shadow and field trials. Adjustments will help optimize the program benefits. 3.1. Qualifying Events A Participating BA will be allowed to initiate a Following Assistance Request if it meets either of the following requirements: a. (Program Reserve Deployed – ACE) ! 85% of initial Program Reserve held b. RC request or Directive to recover ACE Allowing a Participating BA to request assistance before deploying all of its Program Reserve helps ensure the Participating BA can meet additional load or generation variations while the Following Reserve Assistance Program is responding to the Assistance Request. Participating BAs will be required to report Program Reserve, Program Reserve Available, and Program Reserve Deployed as described in section 7.1 below. The following example illustrates how a Participating BA meets the Qualifying Event requirements. Example – BA1 Program Reserve (PR) = 100 MW Program Reserve Deployed (PRD) = 70 MW ACE = -15 PRD – ACE = 70 – (-15) = 85 85% of PR = 100 x 85% = 85 BA1 is eligible to call on Following Assistance 3.2. Maximum Following Assistance Request The maximum Following Assistance Request a Participating BA will be allowed to make is the amount necessary to return its ACE to zero and Program Reserve Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 72 of 108 12 Deployed to 50% of its Program Reserve. The following example illustrates how a BA would determine the maximum request it could make. Example – BA1 Program Reserve (PR) = 100 MW Program Reserve Deployed (PRD) = 70 MW ACE = -15 Maximum request = /ACE/ + (PRD – 50% of PR) = /-15/ + [70 – (100 x 0.50)] = 15 + 20 = 35 MW 3.3. Obligation to Provide Following Assistance To ensure that a Participating BA doesn’t completely deplete its own Program Reserve when responding to a Following Assistance Request, it will automatically be excused from responding when any of the conditions described below exist: a. If a Participating BA has a Following Assistance Request in place, it will be exempt from responding to any other Following Assistance Requests. b. A Supplying BA will be limited to providing a maximum of 50% of its Program Reserve for all Following Assistance Requests within a given hour (this includes any portion of its Program Reserve it has deployed for its own needs). If a Supplying BA Program Reserve Deployed is at or above 50% of its Program Reserve at the time a Following Assistance Request is made, it will be exempt from responding to the request. Example of not responding to a request: BA1 has met conditions of a Qualifying Event and has initiated a request BA2 - Program Reserve (PR) = 100 MW Program Reserve Deployed (PRD) = 55 MW PRD ! 50% to respond to request 50% of PR = 100 x 50% = 50 MW PRD = 55 MW PRD " 50% of PR so BA2 does not respond to request c. If at any time during a period when a Supplying BA is responding to one or more Following Assistance Requests, the Supplying BA’s Program Reserve Deployed - ACE " 65% of its Program Reserve then it will be automatically excused from continuing to respond to any requests. This will release the Supplying BAs Program Reserve for self use only. Example of dropping from a request: BA1 has met conditions of a Qualifying Event and has initiated a request Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 73 of 108 13 BA2 - Program Reserve (PR) = 100 MW Program Reserve Deployed (PRD) = 35 MW ACE = 0 PRD ! 50% to respond to request 50% of PR = 100 x 50% = 50 MW PRD = 35 MW PRD ! 50% of PR (35 ! 50) so BA2 responds to request 5 minutes later BA2 has responded to the request, has deployed Program Reserve for its own need and its ACE has dropped 10 MW New PRD = 55MW ACE = -10 PRD – ACE = 55 – (-10) = 65 MW PR x 65% = 100 x 65% = 65 MW Since PRD – ACE " 65% of PR, BA2 drops from request If a Supplying BA is dropped out of responding to an Assistance Request based on the conditions above, the portion of the Assistance Request no longer being provided by that Supplying BA will not be redistributed to the remaining Participating BAs. All Participating BAs are required to maintain the same Program Reserve as if they were not participating in the FRAP, so they should not be impacted when a Supplying BA drops out of a request and the request isn’t redistributed. A Requesting BA can always make another request if it meets one of the Qualifying Events described in Section D.3.1. 3.4. Length of Request A Following Assistance Request will be instantaneously integrated into the EMS of Supplying BAs after the Following Assistance Computer Program determines the allocation of the request. Following Assistance Requests will remain in effect until any of the following conditions occur: a. Except for a request made in the last 10 minutes of a clock hour (which are covered under (b) below), requests end at the end of the hour in which the request was made, with a ramp beginning at 10 minutes to the top of the hour b. A request made during the last 10 minutes of the hour will last through the next hour (unless terminated sooner in accordance with (c) or (d) below) c. Request is terminated by Requesting BA d. Requesting BAs Program Reserves Deployed – ACE ! 35% of its Program Reserve Example of automatic termination of request: Before request PR = 100, PRD = 70, ACE = -15 Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 74 of 108 14 Maximum Request = /ACE/ + (PRD – 50% of PR) Maximum Request = 15 + [70 - (100 x 50%) = 15 + (70 – 50) = 35 Sometime after request PR = 100, PRD = 50, ACE = 15 PRD – ACE = (50 - 15) ! 35 Request is automatically terminated 3.5. Determination of Following Assistance Request The Following Assistance Computer System will be programmed to take the actions described below: a. Calculate the total Program Reserve Available in each Zone based on the information provided by the Participating BAs b. Collect and consolidate all Following Assistance Requests c. Upon receiving a Following Assistance Request, net Participating BAs’ ACEs that are in the opposite direction of a request d. Create a dynamic transfer from a Supplying BA whose ACE is in the opposite direction of a Following Assistance Request to a Requesting BA. This will reduce a Supplying BA’s ACE accordingly. e. Calculate the remaining amount of the Assistance Request and distribute it pro-rata to the BAs as described in Section D.3.6 and D.3.7. 3.6. Request Distribution After ACE netting, each Following Assistance Request will be distributed pro- rata based on the Program Reserve Available of the Participating BAs within the Zone where the Following Assistance Request originated. If the originating Zone can’t fulfill the request, then the Following Assistance Request will be further distributed pro-rata to Participating BAs in adjacent Zones assuming there is sufficient Program Reserve Available in the pool and adequate transmission is available in real-time between the Zones. If there is not sufficient Program Reserve Available in the pool and/or transmission between adjacent Zones is not available, then the Following Assistance Computer System will limit the Following Assistance Request accordingly. 3.7. Transmission Usage (Applies to Field Trial Only) The treatment of transmission for the Following Reserve Assistance Program will be identical to the approach for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Transmission availability will be recognized and treated as a constraint based on actual, not scheduled, real-time flows on relevant tie-lines, and contract rights where applicable. The Following Reserve Assistance Program takes into account the effect constrained transmission paths can have on the ability of Participating BAs to deliver Following Assistance to one another across Zones, as well as the impact to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. In order to avoid adversely affecting the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program, any Following Assistance Request will be suspended if there is a transmission constraint into the originating Zone Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 75 of 108 15 (except for Following Assistance Requests made in the Pacific NW Zone, because there are more than two participants in this Zone). Suspending a Following Assistance Request due to real time transmission limitations will ensure that the Contingency Reserve Obligation of the BAs in the constrained zone doesn’t increase because of transmission usage associated with FRAP. Attachment 1 shows the Zones for the Following Reserve Assistance Program. 3.8. Accounting (Applies to Field Trial Only) Similar to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program, Following Reserve Assistance transactions beyond ACE netting will be tagged after the fact. Each Participating BA must account for scheduled receipt and delivery of Following Reserve Assistance energy. The delivery of Following Assistance energy is exempt from any costs or charges associated with transmission wheeling or losses. The Following Assistance Computer System factors in available transmission for delivering Following Assistance. There may be incremental transmission usage between some Zones, but this usage is effectively limited in real-time up to the current System Operating Limit (SOL) of the transmission path minus the transmission capacity used to calculate the Contingency Reserve Obligation (for purposes of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program) in each Zone. BAs participating in the Following Reserve Assistance Program recognize the regional benefits associated with the Following Reserve Assistance Program and have agreed to waive any rights to financial settlement for transmission needed to deliver Following Assistance energy to Participating BAs. After the field trial operating period, the treatment of transmission usage can be re-evaluated. 4. Obligation to Provide Each Participating BA is required to provide Following Assistance to Requesting BAs in accordance with the Following Reserve Assistance Program operating rules. However, Participating BAs are not required to activate Following Assistance simply because they have experienced a Qualifying Event. Making a Following Assistance Request is always at the discretion of the qualifying BA. A Participating BA that has requested Following Assistance is exempt from providing assistance while its request is in effect. 5. Other Roles & Responsibility 5.1. NWPP Staff NWPP Staff will assist with the implementation and monitoring of the Following Reserve Assistance Program during the proposed shadow trial. The participants will enter into a contractual agreement with the NWPP staff to conduct the shadow trial. It is anticipated that a similar arrangement will be entered into for the field trial if it happens. Although Participating BAs are responsible for telemetering data to the Following Reserve Assistance Program as described in Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 76 of 108 16 Section D.6, if NWPP Staff notices missing information, NWPP Staff will follow up with the affected BAs. 5.2. Participating BA Responsibilities Participating BAs are responsible for abiding by the Following Reserve Assistance Program rules. The rules differ for the two trials. a. Shadow Trial – Participating BAs agree to document, collect and provide the necessary data to perform the after the fact analysis associated with the shadow trial. The required data is listed in Attachment 2. b. Field Trial – Participating BAs agree to maintain sufficient Program Reserve to meet their needs as if they were not participating in the program, to provide Following Assistance when requested by another Participating BA, and to settle for deliveries of Following Reserve Assistance energy as established by the Participating BAs. Participating BAs must also provide and receive data for Following Reserve Assistance Program as described in Section D.7 and any additional requirements determined after the field trial. 6. Data Requirements for Shadow Trial The method of data exchange for the shadow trial is still being finalized. The preferred method is an automated process using ICCP or EIDE data exchange similar to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. This will provide the most accurate data and reduce errors and required data massaging. Another method is to use an Excel spreadsheet, however it will be difficult to ensure the data is time stamped and entered properly. This method will require additional manual efforts to collect and verify the data. If the Participant BAs agree to move forward with a shadow trial, a workshop will be held with the Participating BAs to finalize the data collection and submittal methodology. It is critical that Participating BAs provide the correct data and that it is time stamped accordingly. 7. Communication Requirements For Field Trial This section will be updated after conclusion of the shadow trial as necessary. All required data is relayed automatically to the Following Assistance Computer System via ICCP. 7.1. Data Telemetered from Participating BAs to the Following Assistance Computer! Each Participating BA must telemeter the following data to the Following Assistance Computer System as well as additional data determined after the completion of the shadow trial: a. the amount of INC Program Reserve for the next hour b. the amount of Program Reserve Deployed [need to develop common calculation for field trial] c. Assistance Request status d. Status of communication links e. Participation status f. Other information determined during program development Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 77 of 108 17 7.2. Participants Responsible for WECC Data Pool Information The Following Reserve Assistance Program will use the same Zones and monitor the same transmission paths as the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. The following language has been copied from the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program to ensure consistency. No new or additional transmission information will need to be monitored or provided by Participating BAs during the field trial. If Zone or path changes are made to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program during the field trial, then these changes will be adopted for the Following Reserve Assistance Program for the remainder of the trial. Also, if the Transmission Visibility Expansion project is completed, the Following Reserve Assistance Program will be adjusted accordingly to utilize the additional transmission monitoring capability. Participants (Balancing Authorities or Transmission Operators) that are responsible for WECC Transmission Data Pool information to support the Following Reserve Assistance Program must telemeter to the Following Assistance Computer System actual flow (ACTUALPATHnn), scheduled flow (SCHEDPATHnn) and transfer limit (LIMITPATHnn) for each direction of flow for the following constrained paths: a. Path 1 AESO-BCHA, b. Path 3 TOTAL PNW-BCHA, c. Path 14 IPCO-PNW (west to east), or Brownlee East + Hemmingway- Summer Lake (west to east), Path 14 IPCO-PNW (east to west), d. Path 20 Path C IPCO-PACE (north to south), and e. Path 66 California-Oregon Intertie (north to south) f. Path 16, Hemmingway-Humboldt (north-to-south) 7.3. Functions of the Following Assistance Computer System This section will be completed with assistance from the programmer after agreement to proceed with a field Trial. 8. Settlements (Applies to Field Trial Only) The pricing and settlement process/methodology will be developed and decided after collecting data from the shadow trial. Settlement will need to be discussed with FERC staff and will probably require a tariff filing for the jurisdictional utilities. 9. Tracking and Reporting As previously discussed a contractual arrangement with the NWPP staff will be developed for the NWPP staff to collect the required data shown in Attachment 2, perform an after-the-fact analysis of how the program would have operator, and provide the results to the Participating BAs for the shadow trial. More specific tracking and reporting requirements may be developed during the design and implementation of the shadow trial. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 78 of 108 18 The specific tracking and reporting requirements for the field trial will be developed at a later date if Participating BAs agree to continue the program. 10. Procedures for Communications or Software/Hardware Failure (Applies to Field Trial Only) Following Assistance Requests and delivery of energy are normally implemented through the Following Assistance Computer System. When a Participating BA cannot access the Following Assistance Computer System, the Participating BA will not be able to participate in the program. The Following Assistance Computer System will not call upon a temporarily non-Participating BA to provide Following Reserve Assistance nor will it accept a request from a temporarily non-Participating BA. If the Following Assistance Computer System is inoperable, then the Following Reserve Assistance Program will be suspended and Participating BAs will not be allowed to request Following Reserve Assistance. Because the Participating BAs are still required to hold the same reserve as if they were not participating in the program, they will not be negatively affected. After the Field Trial operating period is completed and if Participating BAs agree to fully develop the program, then a new backup procedure may be developed. 11. Training The NWPP Staff will work with the Participating BAs to develop a training program for the shadow to educate the Participants System Operators and support personnel including data collection, prior to starting the trial. Additional NERC accredited training will be developed jointly by the NWPP staff and the participants prior to the beginning of the field trial. This training will incorporate the settlement methodology. !"#$%&'()&*+,--%)./&0.0(*#.%#1(2)&#34)%/54#.4(#3)026*# 1. General a. Whether operating rules are sufficient. Rules can be modified and expanded as necessary b. Need to ensure no adverse impacts to existing Contingency Reserve Sharing Program 2. Technical a. Whether existing Reserve Sharing Zones are sufficient given increased complexity b. Feasibility of handling transmission in the same manner as for existing Contingency Reserve Sharing Program c. Utilization of existing transmission might affect other initiatives and programs Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 79 of 108 19 d. Impact on dynamic transfers and unscheduled flow 3. Economic and Regulatory a. Potential disparities in benefits/burdens (shifting burden to BAs with little or no variable generation or non-conforming load from those with a substantial variable generation or non-conforming load) b. Regulatory recognition i. Will regulators allow the implicit, uncompensated use of transmission within the operating hour ii. Will the Following Reserve Assistance Program be regarded by FERC as ancillary services sales among the Participating BAs, and therefore subject to the “Avista” rule c. Will this approach require any waivers from regulatory authorities enforcing reliability standards or tariff compliance? d. Effect on other initiatives (e.g., ADI, RBC, etc.) !"#$%&'()%*+#,-./+)%)#.-0#!1,2#3'-'4%*)# The Following Reserve Assistance Program is built on the assumed regional load and generation diversity in the NWPP. Before any trial could be implemented, an analysis was required to determine if there is sufficient load and generation diversity to allow for FRAP implementation. The following sections describe the analysis objectives, methodology and results. 1. Diversity Analysis Objectives 1.1. Main objective is to determine whether a. there is general load and generation diversity among BAs in the NWPP footprint to lessen “baseline” regulating burden for all BAs, b. there is sufficient diversity among BAs in the NWPP footprint during times when one BA is experiencing an extreme ramp to enable other BAs to assist 1.2. Evaluate one year’s worth of historical operating data (CY 2011) a. one-minute actuals of: • load • variable generation • Load forecasts (hourly forecasts, taken down to one minute averages based on ramping between hours) 1.3. Determine total regulation requirement a. for each BA in the NWPP footprint b. for the NWPP footprint as a whole 1.4. More robust analysis of constrained transmissions paths to determine impact to the program. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 80 of 108 20 2. Analysis Methodology 2.1. Cleaning of the Data a. Load forecasts need cleaning due to systemic errors in load forecasts and varying vintages in the stored load forecasts (some hour ahead, some day ahead, some prescheduled, etc.) i. Adjusted load forecast to the summation of the delta in load forecast from prior hour to current hour and the integration of the previous hour’s load from XX:10 to XX:50. b. Not all of the variable generation in the NWPP footprint is scheduled, so variable generation schedules needed to be created when not provided. i. Variable generation schedules created as 30 minute persistence on hourly schedules, where the generation at XX:30 in the prior hour determines the schedule for current hour. 2.2. Establishment of Program Reserve Deployed and Program Reserve Held a. Program Reserve Deployed was calculated for each BA by computing the following formula on a minute-by-minute basis: PRD = [Load – Load Forecast] – [Variable Gen – Variable Gen Schedules] Where, o Load is that BA’s 1-mintue load data o Load Forecast is that BA’s load forecast adjusted as described in F.2.1.a with 20-minute hourly ramps o Variable Generation is that BA’s variable generation o Variable Generation Schedules is that BA’s variable generation schedule of variable generation 30 minute persistence on hourly schedules as described in F.2.1.b with 20-minute hourly ramps b. Program Reserve Held was established as the 97.5% percentile of the one year of 1-minute data for the Program Reserve Deployed (calculated in F.2.2.a above). c. Analysis of the Program Reserve Deployed in F.2.2.a fulfills the requirements of F.1.3.a above. 2.3. Assumptions used for Requesting BAs a. Each BA would request 35% of their Program Reserve Held upon their Program Reserve Deployed reaching 85% of their Program Reserve Held (See section D.3.1). b. Requests would terminate after the requesting BA’s Program Reserve Held, including assistance, reached 35% of their Program Reserve Held (See section D.3.4.d). c. Requests prior to XX:50 would last until the top of the hour and requests after XX:50 would last until the top the next hour (See section D.3.4.a and D.3.4.b). Note: for simplicity in the code, the 10-minute ramp out of requests was not modeled. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 81 of 108 21 2.4. Assumptions used for Providing BAs a. BAs with a positive ACE or deploying DEC reserve would provide assistance first on a pro-rata basis. b. All non-requesting BAs could be requested to provide assistance on a pro- rata basis. c. BAs could be requested to provide assistance that would cause their Program Reserve Deployed to go up to 50% of their Program Reserve Held at the time of request (See section D.3.3.b). d. BAs automatically withdraw from providing assistance if their Program Reserve Deployed, including assistance, reaches 65% of their Program Reserve Held (See section D.3.3.c). 2.5. Calculation Assumptions a. At the time of each request, the Following Assistance Computer System would: i. Determine the assistance each non-requesting BA needs to provide. ii. Determine the assistance each requesting BA receives. iii. If less than requested, assistance would be provided on a pro-rata basis to all requesting BAs. b. Upon each request termination or the beginning of the hour (to account for the termination of prior hour requests), the Following Assistance Computer System would: i. Determine the assistance each non-requesting BA needs to provide. ii. Determine the assistance each requesting BA receives. iii. If less than requested, assistance would be provided on a pro-rata basis to all requesting BAs. c. Analysis for the NWPP footprint and on the more granular zones was performed in the following ways: i. An unlimited sharing of reserve analysis was run on the entire NWPP footprint. For this analysis the Program Reserve Deployed for all NWPP BAs were consolidated into one error signal. This would be the equivalent of a consolidated BA for the entire NWPP footprint. ii. The NWPP footprint analysis assumed no transmission constraints and evaluated the full potential for the region to share reserve with the program rules in place. This gives a theoretical maximum benefit for each BA. iii. The zone analysis was performed on zones consisting of two or more entities and combinations of single entity zones with adjacent zones. This gives a theoretical minimum benefit for each BA within a zone of two or more BAs. For single BA zones, this gives them another potential benefit benchmark(s) to evaluate the theoretical benefits. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 82 of 108 22 3. Diversity Analysis Results Using the methodology described in section F.2 above and the 2011 data provided by each of the Participating BAs, the potential regional load and generation diversity was calculated. The analysis shows that the total Program Reserve Deployed at the 95% distribution level was reduced from a total of 1877 MW to 771 MW which is a 59% reduction. This analysis assumes that the 19 BAs are operating as a single BA with no operating limitations or transmission congestion either within Reserve Sharing Zones or between them. The reduction in individual BA Program Reserve deployed ranges from 24% to 99%. The difference in percent reduction depends upon the size of the BA and the amount of interconnected variable generation. The complete results are shown in column 2 of Table 1 in Attachment 3. This analysis verified that there is load and generation diversity within the region and Participating BAs could take advantage of the diversity by implementing the Following Reserve Assistance Program. ! 4. Concept Analysis Results Based on the positive results of the regional load and generation diversity analysis the proposed Following Reserve Assistance Program operating rules were implemented on the 2011 data provided by the regional BAs. An analysis was performed using the methodology discussed in section F.2. The analysis assumed each BA held Program Reserve equal to the 95% deployed distribution level as determined from the diversity analysis using actual 2011 data. This amount of Program Reserve may be more or less than each individual BA actually holds or plans for on a 24x7 hour basis. However, without a common methodology for calculating BA Program Reserve, an assumption was required to perform the benefit analysis. The assumed Program Reserve held ranged from 9 MW for small BAs to 427 MW for large BAs. The total Program Reserve assumed for all 19 BAs was 1871 MW. According to the Following Assistance proposed operating rules less than half of the total held Program Reserve would be available to share because each BA is limited to providing only up to half of its Program Reserve to meet Following Assistance Requests. The analysis results incorporating the proposed operating rules on the 2011 data showed that the total Program Reserve Deployed for the region at the 95% distribution level would have been reduced from 1871 MW to 1322 MW. This means that the total amount of deployed reserve in the 19 BAs for 95% of the 1 minute averages during 2011 was reduced by 549 MW or a 29% reduction. This is about 50% of the reduction if the region operated as a single BA without the operating rules proposed for the Following Reserve Assistance Program. Column 3 in Table 1 of Attachment 3 shows the percent of Program Reserve Deployed as compared to no sharing of reserve for each BA assuming the Following Reserve Assistance Program was implemented in 2011 and BAs requested assistance when they met the requirements of a Qualifying Event. The percent reduction for the individual BAs ranged from 18% to 33%. In terms of potential MW reductions a larger BA with variable generation would have reduced its deployed reserve from 427 MW to 309 MW, a smaller BA with no variable generation would have reduced its deployed reserve from 24 MW to 17 MW, and a medium sized BA with variable generation would have seen a reduction in deployed reserve from 85 MW to 61 MW. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 83 of 108 23 These results are based on averages for the entire year. To determine the real potential benefits or impact of the Following Reserve Assistance Program, Participating BAs will need to evaluate the actual 1 minute average data that they were provided. BAs can look at the impact of the program for certain months of the year or certain hours of the day. An index price for the specific hours in the year can be applied to determine the approximate cost of energy provided or received under the program. However, given that the exact settlement methodology hasn’t been determined the actual costs and benefits of participating in the program aren’t known. A determination of the value of the capacity reduction by participating in the Following Reserve Assistance Program can also be performed. The work group did not perform any of these additional data analysis since each BA operates and values its in-hour (Program) reserve needs differently. The work group did conduct a sensitivity study to determine the potential impacts to the program if there were transmission congestion or limitation between the six Reserve Sharing Zones. This analysis determined the percentage reduction in Program Reserve Deployed if the Following Assistance Requests were limited to within each of the Reserve Sharing Zones (no ability to request outside the zone) or limited to reaching out for assistance to only one adjacent zone. The results of this analysis are shown in Table 2 of Attachment 3. The results show that there is still a reduction in deployed reserve for Reserve Sharing Zones that only have a few BAs. Total reduction of deployed reserve in the smaller zones range from 8 – 12% and individual BA reductions range from 5 – 20%. The variation is dependent upon the size of the BAs within the zones. However the results show that even with transmission restrictions between the zones, the Following Reserve Assistance Program still reduces the amount of reserve required to meet in-hour variations. !"#$%&'%()#*&+,+# 1. Shadow Trial The costs to conduct the shadow trial will include both communal costs shared among the participants and individual participant costs. A good faith estimate was developed by the NWPP Staff for the communal costs and is provided as Attachment 4. The estimated shared cost is $159,000 and will be allocated equally among the participants. Participants will be billed monthly based on actual incurred costs. The shared costs include contracting with the NWPP to collect the necessary data, perform the after the fact analysis, provide the results to the participants, and some training. Additional costs were included in the estimate to expand the shadow trial to include mock deployment and potentially DEC requests. The cost to the individual Participating BAs will vary depending upon the availability of internal SCADA or IT support and existing ICCP channels. The costs should be minimal since a lot of the required data is already being collected by the NWPP Staff for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Several data collection workshops will be held to help the participants understand what data is needed and how it will be Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 84 of 108 24 collected. Several participants have performed an internal assessment and estimated the effort will require 40-80 man-hours to complete. 2. Field Trial Utilizing the existing Contingency Reserve Sharing platform, the modification required to implement the Following Reserve Assistance Program changes to perform a field trial or long term operation are expected to not exceed $150,000. The cost to the individual Participating BAs will vary depending upon the availability of SCADA or IT support personnel but shouldn’t be significant since most of the required data is already being sent for either the shadow trial or the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Additional costs will be incurred to perform System Operator and support personnel training. However the required training may be developed under the current NWPP training program so the cost should be less than $50,000. !"#$%&'()*+#,-#.,)),/012#3++0+4&15*#6,15*(4# Assumptions • BA1 Program Reserve = 1,000 MW, ACE = -150 MW, Deployed Reserve = 700 MW • BA 2 Program Reserve = 60 MW, ACE = 100 MW, Deployed Reserve = 0 MW • BA 3 Program Reserve = 50 MW, ACE = 0 MW, Deployed Reserve = 35 MW • All other BAs ACEs @ 0 MW Qualifying Event Eligibility: – BA1 – 85% of Total Reserve = 1000 * 85% = 850 MW – BA1 – (Deployed – ACE) = [700-(-150)] = 850 MW which is > 85% – BA1 is eligible to requests assistance BA1 maximum request amount calculation – 50% of Total Reserve = 1000 * 50% = 500 MW – (ACE + Deployed to return to 50%) = 150 + (700 – 500) = 350 MW Assistance Reserve Calculation – BA2 ACE is opposite of request so it is netted against request – Dynamic transfer of 100 MW from BA2 to BA1 to net ACEs – Remaining 250 MW request is distributed pro-rata to BAs in the Zone where the Requesting BA is located 7" 344&58'*14+# Attachment 1 – Reserve Sharing Zones Attachment 2 - Data Needed for FRAP Shadow Trial Attachment 3 – Results (Table 1 and Table 2) Attachment 4 – Good Faith Estimate Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 85 of 108 25 ATTACHMENT 1 Reserve Sharing Zones ! Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 86 of 108 26 ATTACHMENT 2 Data Needed for FRAP Shadow Trial Hourly Data [recorded prior to the hour of operation with a UTC time stamp] 1. Total in-hour reserve scheduled, held, or anticipated for the Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o This should include all generation reserve (including stand-by units) that are planned to be used for the coming hour to meet the BAL standards for your BAA, except Contingency Reserve. Currently each BA has its own methodology to determine this value. o This value may not be documented today and may vary hour to hour, day to day, or season to season. o This value will be used to determine ! BA’s Program Reserve as defined for the FRAP ! How much each entity would share for the Next Hour ! If an entity reaches a Qualifying Event in the Next Hour 2. BAA Load Forecast for Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o Load Forecast used by operators to set up the Next Hour. o Average hourly Load Forecast if sub-hourly Load Forecasts are created prior to the hour of operation. 3. Variable Generation Forecast for the Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o If all Variable Generation is scheduled, please submit those schedules for this data (submit hourly or average of sub-hourly schedules). o If no schedules are used for Variable Generation (all or just a portion), report a 30 minute persistence value on hourly schedules (i.e. Variable Generation at 9:30 determines 10:00-11:00 Forecast). o Variable Generation includes Wind, Solar, Tidal and/or Wave Generation. 4. Non-AGC Generation Forecast for Next Hour (OPTIONAL) o This would be the sum of Generation Schedules and/or Forecasts for all generation in the BAA, except those units on AGC and/or identified in number 1 (units identified to provide in-hour reserve). o If the AGC mix changes constantly or non-AGC units are brought online unscheduled to free up space on AGC units (i.e. stand-by units), only include generators that are NEVER deployed to balance the system, and include stand-by units as part of the units identified in number 1. o The generation units included here must be the same units as identified in number 7 below. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 87 of 108 27 1-minute Average Data [recorded in real-time with a UTC time stamp] 5. BAA Load data (MUST HAVE) o 1-minute average actual Load data o Calculated instantaneous as the sum of all generation minus interchanges. o Corresponds to number 2 above. 6. Variable Generation data (MUST HAVE) o 1-minute average actual Variable Generation data o Corresponds to number 3 above. 7. Non-AGC Generation data (OPTIONAL) o 1-minute average actual Non-AGC Generation data o Corresponds to number 4 above. o This would be the sum of Generation data for all generation in the BAA, except those units on AGC and/or identified in number 1 (units identified to provide in- hour reserve). o If the AGC mix changes constantly or non-AGC units are brought online unscheduled to free up space on AGC units (i.e. stand-by units), only include generators that are NEVER deployed to balance the system. o The generation units included here must be the same units as identified in number 4 above. 8. Variable Generation Contingency Reserve Used data (MUST HAVE) o Summation of the 1-minute average actual Contingency Reserve Used (CRU) data for Variable Generation. o If 1 minute CRU data is not available on a plant by plant basis, please provide this summation of Variable Generation CRU as an hourly value. o This is not Contingency Reserve Deployed. o Corresponds to number 3 above. 9. Non-AGC Generation Contingency Reserve Used data (OPTIONAL) o Summation of the 1-minute average actual Contingency Reserve Used (CRU) data for Non-AGC Generation. o If 1 minute CRU data is not available on a plant by plant basis, please provide this summation of Non-AGC Generation CRU as an hourly value. o This is not Contingency Reserve Deployed. o Corresponds to number 4 above. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 88 of 108 28 ATTACHMENT 3 Results Table 1 Following Reserve Assistance Program Analysis Results INC Program Reserve Deployed at 95% Distribution Level !"#$%&'()*##+),(-(./0#$%&'()*1234#$%&'()* !544#6".&,#7859 :;<:<<::=>> !544#6".&,:??@ A:@ <:@ 3B3 :??@ ==@ <?@ C3!D :??@ >E@ F<@ CDG :??@ <F@ FH@ C43 :??@ AH@ <>@ DG4I :??@ =E@ FH@ IJ4I :??@ =<@ ;>@ KD4I :??@ >:@ F;@ L4D :??@ =E@ <:@ !BM :??@ >;@ <?@ !5M):??@ >A@ <:@ 43DM :??@ A?@ <:@ 43D5 :??@ AA@ <:@ 4KM :??@ =>@ FH@ 4$M :??@ A:@ <:@ $DN :??@ A:@ <=@ 6452 :??@ >H@ FH@ 6LI :??@ >;@ F;@ 5343 :??@ :@ F;@ K53 :??@ :>@ FH@ 2/OP,.O#"Q#1",,"R()*#2/O/'S/#3OO(.&)T/#4'"*'&-# NOTES: !!!1) Results in column 3 & 4 are a percentage of No Sharing 2) Column 3 assumes a single NWPP BA operation with no limits to sharing 3) Column 4 assumes the FRAP operating rules are in place 4) Uses adjusted Load Forecast Adjusted_Load_Forecast[XX+1] = LoadAverage[XX:10to50] + (Load_Forecast[XX+1]-Load_Forecast[XX]) 5) Only 3 BAA provide VER schedules, so 30 minute persistence on hourly schedules was used for all VER data. 6) One BAA's Load Schedule was synthesized as average (per unit) schedule of 3 neighboring BAAs. 7) 7 BAAs did not provide VER data. Random noise signal of 0-1 MW used for calculation to work (or divide by zero error). 8) One BAA has no load data. Random noise signal of 0-1 MW used for calculation to work (or divide by zero error). Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 89 of 108 29 Table 2 Results Assuming Assistance Limited to One or Two Zones Model Transmission Limitations Between Zones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esults in column 3 & 4 are a percentage of No Sharing 2) Uses adjusted Load Forecast Adjusted_Load_Forecast[XX+1] = LoadAverage[XX:10to50] + (Load_Forecast[XX+1]-Load_Forecast[XX]) 3) Only 3 BAA provide VER schedules, so 30 minute persistence on hourly schedules was used for all VER data. 4) One BAA's Load Schedule was synthesized as average (per unit) schedule of 3 neighboring BAAs. 5) 7 BAAs did not provide VER data. Random noise signal of 0-1 MW used for calculation to work (or divide by zero error). 6) One BAA has no load data. Random noise signal of 0-1 MW used for calculation to work (or divide by zero error). Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 90 of 108 30 ATTACHMENT 4 Good Faith Estimate – 5/31/13 Charges for NWPP Corporation Services Provided For FRAP Start-Up and Shadow Program – 6 Months FRAP Tracking, Recording, Reporting, & Filing: 500 hours @ $141/hour $70,500 FRAP Accounting & Billing: 6 hours @ $141/hour $846 Retention and Storage of FRAP Data $ 500 per month $3,000 Associated NWPP Corporation Management Review and Backup: 24 hours @ $141/hour $3,384 Associated NWPP Corporation IT and Communications Support: 100 hours @ $141/hour $14,100 Materials and Equipment (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $4,000 Telephony $1,250 OATi E-tagging Services - $ 600 per month $0 OSIsoft PI and Associated Expenses $2,500 SISCO ICCP $1,250 NWPP FRAP Program Hosting Fee $1,200 FRAP Meetings/Training: - 150 hours @$141/hour $21,150 Office Equipment Usage - $50 per month $300 Legal Expense (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $TBD Travel (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $5,000 Material & Supplies (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $1,250 Copying (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $1,120 Associated Misc. Costs (Actual Costs Incurred) Estimated $150 NWPP data collection costs - BPA ICCP data points $10,000 Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 91 of 108 31 Program Software Development Support – Contract 120 hours @ $150/hour $18,000 Total Fiscal Year Estimated Expenses $159,000* Average Monthly Estimated Expense (6 months) $26,500 * Participants will be billed on actual incurred costs and monthly allocations will be divided equally based on the final number of participants. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 92 of 108 ! ! !"#$%&'()*+,-&-.&/0+,(-"1+&2.33"--++&4(-5.6"7$-".#&-.&8+%+$9+&:&;(%<&=>?&@A=B&&&"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.& C.-&D.6&E"9-6")(-".#&-.&F$6-"+9&G-5+6&H5$#&I2&F$6-","J$#-9!!!! !""#$%&'()(( ( Following Reserve Assistance Program (FRAP) Shadow Trial Scope July 3, 2013 Background and General Concept: Every Balancing Authority (BA) in the region is required to maintain sufficient operating reserve to meet in-hour variability. Reserve is held for multiple reasons including loss of generation (Contingency), support for the Interconnection (Frequency Response), moment to moment load and generation variations (Regulation), and in-hour scheduling variations (Following, Balancing or Flex). NERC has defined Regulation and Following or Flex as Regulation Reserve. Each BA within the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) determines the in-hour regulating reserve it needs differently. The current NERC reliability standards don’t include a prescriptive methodology for Following Reserve to meet in-hour variations. However, FERC has directed that a national standard be developed. Each BA’s load and generation can fluctuate at different times within the day relative to other BAs. The Following Reserve Assistance Program takes advantage of the diversity that exists among all of the participating BAs in the NWPP footprint. BAs are able to assist each other by providing a portion of their non-deployed in-hour reserve to other BAs that are experiencing large load or generation variations. If a BA is holding reserve to meet potential in-hour variations but hasn’t deployed it, then through the Following Reserve Assistance Program it can offer a portion of its held reserve to another participant who is experiencing a significant variation and has deployed most of its Following Reserve. In order to request assistance, a requesting BA must meet specific requirements defined as a Qualifying Event. The size of a Following Reserve Assistance Request initiated by a requesting BA and the amount of assistance a supplying BA will be required to provide are both limited by the program operating rules. This will ensure that a supplying BA doesn’t enter a risky operating condition by providing assistance and a requesting BA will use a significant portion of its own reserve before making a request. To help all of the NWPP BAs better understand the benefits, operation, and effects of the Following Reserve Assistance Program, and to provide additional time to consider suitable settlement provisions and consult with regulatory authorities as appropriate, the Following Reserve Assistance Program will be implemented in stages. The implementation stages will include; a shadow trial, a field trial, and long-term operation. The shadow trial will be limited initially to incremental (INC) requests only. The program can be modified to allow decremental (DEC) requests as the trial matures. Objectives: A shadow trial will be conducted to gain experience with the program operating rules through the collection of operating data. During the shadow trial the Following Reserve Assistance Program procedures will not actually be implemented in real-time operations, but data will be collected in real-time and analyzed after the fact to allow participants to assess what would have happened had the program been in effect. Results will be provided to the participants at least every two weeks so the information is still fresh. After the initial set-up and the shadow trial has Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 93 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!/!*!+,-$!.! ! reached a stable operating condition the trial can be modified to collect additional data such as when a participant would have called on Following Reserve Assistance, and the potential incorporation of DEC requests. The primary objectives of the shadow trial are: 1. Limit direct impact to current operations. BAs operate under their current reserve methodology; however, they collect and report their forecasted in-hour reserve (Program Reserve) need prior to every operating hour. Program Reserve is defined as the amount of within-hour reserve held to meet error between forecasts and actual load and generation, excluding Contingency Reserve and Frequency Response Reserve as defined in NERC BAL-002 and BAL-003, respectively. 2. Perform additional analysis with near real-time operating data to inform participating BAs on the potential effectiveness of the Following Reserve Assistance Program to assist with large system ramps. Initially the trial will only include INC requests but hopefully DEC requests can also be analyzed after the trial is mature. 3. Provide a proof of concept for regional diversity. Collected data and operational experience gained from the shadow trial will better inform the MC participants about regional diversity and its impact on the level of Program Reserve held and deployed. 4. Provide additional time and information to evaluate a consistent regional calculation and communication of Program Reserve held and deployed. This is required before entering a field trial. 5. The information gathered from the shadow trial will help MC participants better understand how to effectively define and manage Resource Sufficiency, and the corresponding risk associated with operating in an EIM. 6. The information collected from the shadow trial can be used to evaluate the impact a regional EIM may have on Flex Reserve as defined in previous EIM benefit studies. 7. Provide additional time and information to develop a settlement methodology associated with the delivery of Program Reserve. An agreed upon settlement methodology is required before entering a field trial. 8. Collect information and operating experience to assist in concept discussions with FERC. FERC tariff approval will be required for jurisdictional entities. 9. Continued program education for BA System Operators and support personal. 10. Collected data and experience will be used to develop NERC certified BA training associated with a field trial. 11. Determine the potential impact on the operation of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program through the evaluation of simultaneous events. 12. Evaluate potential impact to transmission operations and any additional unscheduled loop flow. The collected data will allow for an after-the-fact transmission flow impact analysis since all Following Reserve Assistance Program events will be time stamped. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 94 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!/!*!+,-$!.! ! Required Data Collection: The required data for the shadow trial is specified in Attachment 1. It is critical that this data is accurate and appropriately time stamped for the shadow trial to be successful. Inaccurate data, including a wrong time stamp, will make the analysis impossible to complete. The 2011 operating data that was collected for the initial diversity and Following Reserve Assistance Program analysis took almost 2 man months to modify into a consistent usable format. The shadow trial will not be successful if the collected data needs to be modified before evaluation. All cost estimates to conduct the shadow trial assume the collected data is accurate and provided in a consistent format. Possible Methods of Data Collection: There are three potential methods for collecting data during the shadow trial. Each represents a different balance point between convenience and accuracy of data collection versus cost and resources needed. The method most likely to produce consistently high-quality data would be for all of the participating BAs to set up additional data points to deliver relevant data through ICCP and/or EIDE data exchanges. These methods are mature and well known. This approach would involve higher initial costs for the NWPP, and would also require participating BAs to dedicate the necessary IT or EMS support for initial set-up. But, once set up, this method would require minimal additional effort by on-shift operators at the various BAs’ control centers. This method would eliminate the data massaging that was required when the 2011 data was collected. This is the recommended collection method and would be utilized if an operational field trial is conducted. A second method would utilize a specific Web portal with time-stamping capability, through which on-shift operators would enter the necessary data. There is some expense associated with setting up the necessary Web portal capabilities, and BAs would have to train their operators to enter the required data on an ongoing hourly basis and rely on them to do it consistently. Additionally, this may require a longer lead time to implement, and it may not be used after the shadow trial. The third option is to create a spreadsheet template for participating BAs to record the necessary data, which would then be submitted to the NWPP at a set time period for use and analysis in the shadow trial. This method would probably be the lowest cost and easiest to implement, but would carry the highest risk of missing or poor-quality data, and also require more staff time to compile data submittals prior to analysis. The additional data compilation time will add to the costs. Without some kind of real-time tracking process (such as time-stamping), there will be no way to verify that data was recorded contemporaneously in the time period to which it relates, so operators could be tempted to fill out entries after the fact based on recall, or simply dispense with recording the data when other demands become too pressing. This is the highest risk option. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 95 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!/!*!+,-$!.! ! Estimated Cost: The cost associated with the shadow trial should be modest, but will depend to a large degree on the method chosen for data collection. It is anticipated that the “communal” cost associated with the shadow trial will be in the range of $150,000 to $200,000. A good faith estimated of $159,000 was provided by the NWPP and is included as Attachment 2. The communal cost includes additional NWPP resource needs to collect the required data discussed in Attachment 1, perform the after-the-fact analysis, communicate results to the participants, and hold participant workshops and training. Participants will be billed on actual incurred costs on a monthly basis. Costs will be spread pro-rata based on the number of shadow trial participants. There will be additional internal cost to the individual participating BAs and it will vary depending upon the method chosen for data collection and the availability of internal SCADA or IT support. The internal resource time and potential minimal hardware costs can be determined after workshops are held with the appropriate participant personnel. The internal participant costs will be limited since most of the real-time data needed for the shadow trial is already collected by the NWPP for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Implementation Plan: 1. Final Executive Approval to proceed with Implementation Plan by June 26 A. Develop funding mechanism – Either stand alone or incorporated into EIM Phase 2 (4 weeks) 2. Assign participating entity resources to Expanded Workgroups (1 week) A. Shadow Trial Evaluation Team (2-3 weeks) i. Finalize project plan • Finalize goals of data collection (questions to be answered) • Finalize list of required data elements • Decide on collection method – prefer automated through ICCP and/or EIDE • Define evaluation criteria for data collection/shadow trial • Proposed data sharing and confidentiality B. Settlement Team (2-3 weeks) i. Research existing RTO/ISO markets ii. Survey participants 3. Host participant workshops A. Data collection i. Host after project plan is finalized and funding mechanism is in place ii. Revise project plan, as necessary 4. NWPP work (11 weeks) A. Develop data collection process B. Develop analysis tool Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 96 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!)!!!"##$%&'(!.!*!+,-$!)! ! 5. Internal Participant work – (11 weeks, concurrent with step 4) A. Develop internal data collection process B. Activate ICCP / EIDE links 6. Operator training (2-4 weeks prior to start date) 7. Test data collection process (2 weeks) 8. Begin shadow trial (6 month minimum) 9. Trial Evaluation A. Shadow Trial Evaluation Team (7 months including 1 month for drafting report and recommendations) i. Review performance at least monthly ii. Analyze impact to transmission flow iii. Evaluate generation operations impact iv. Develop Deployed Program Reserve methodology v. Evaluate and implement enhancements – mock deployment, DEC requests vi. Develop final report and recommendations B. Settlement Team (7 months including 1 month for drafting report and recommendations) i. Evaluate shadow trial results ii. Consult with FERC staff iii. Develop settlement methodology report and recommendations 10. Recommendation to Executive Committee based on results of analysis Note: If each item were executed based on the timeframe listed, the shadow trial would begin November 4, 2013 and conclude April 30, 2014. A final report and recommendations would be delivered to the Executive Committee by May 30, 2014. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 97 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!.!*!+,-$!.! ! ATTACHMENT 1 Data Needed for FRAP Shadow Trial Hourly Data [recorded prior to the hour of operation with a UTC time stamp] 1. Total in-hour reserve scheduled, held, or anticipated for the Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o This should include all generation reserve (including stand-by units) that are planned to be used for the coming hour to meet the BAL standards for your BAA, except Contingency Reserve. Currently each BA has its own methodology to determine this value. o This value may not be documented today and may vary hour to hour, day to day, or season to season. o This value will be used to determine ! BA’s Program Reserve as defined for the FRAP ! How much each entity would share for the Next Hour ! If an entity reaches a Qualifying Event in the Next Hour 2. BAA Load Forecast for Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o Load Forecast used by operators to set up the Next Hour. o Average hourly Load Forecast if sub-hourly Load Forecasts are created prior to the hour of operation. 3. Variable Generation Forecast for the Next Hour (MUST HAVE) o If all Variable Generation is scheduled, please submit those schedules for this data (submit hourly or average of sub-hourly schedules). o If no schedules are used for Variable Generation (all or just a portion), report a 30 minute persistence value on hourly schedules (i.e. Variable Generation at 9:30 determines 10:00-11:00 Forecast). o Variable Generation includes Wind, Solar, Tidal and/or Wave Generation. 4. Non-AGC Generation Forecast for Next Hour (OPTIONAL) o This would be the sum of Generation Schedules and/or Forecasts for all generation in the BAA, except those units on AGC and/or identified in number 1 (units identified to provide in-hour reserve). o If the AGC mix changes constantly or non-AGC units are brought online unscheduled to free up space on AGC units (i.e. stand-by units), only include generators that are NEVER deployed to balance the system, and include stand-by units as part of the units identified in number 1. o The generation units included here must be the same units as identified in number 7 below. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 98 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!/!*!+,-$!.! ! 1-minute Average Data [recorded in real-time with a UTC time stamp] 5. BAA Load data (MUST HAVE) o 1-minute average actual Load data o Calculated instantaneous as the sum of all generation minus interchanges. o Corresponds to number 2 above. 6. Variable Generation data (MUST HAVE) o 1-minute average actual Variable Generation data o Corresponds to number 3 above. 7. Non-AGC Generation data (OPTIONAL) o 1-minute average actual Non-AGC Generation data o Corresponds to number 4 above. o This would be the sum of Generation data for all generation in the BAA, except those units on AGC and/or identified in number 1 (units identified to provide in- hour reserve). o If the AGC mix changes constantly or non-AGC units are brought online unscheduled to free up space on AGC units (i.e. stand-by units), only include generators that are NEVER deployed to balance the system. o The generation units included here must be the same units as identified in number 4 above. 8. Variable Generation Contingency Reserve Used data (MUST HAVE) o Summation of the 1-minute average actual Contingency Reserve Used (CRU) data for Variable Generation. o If 1 minute CRU data is not available on a plant by plant basis, please provide this summation of Variable Generation CRU as an hourly value. o This is not Contingency Reserve Deployed. o Corresponds to number 3 above. 9. Non-AGC Generation Contingency Reserve Used data (OPTIONAL) o Summation of the 1-minute average actual Contingency Reserve Used (CRU) data for Non-AGC Generation. o If 1 minute CRU data is not available on a plant by plant basis, please provide this summation of Non-AGC Generation CRU as an hourly value. o This is not Contingency Reserve Deployed. o Corresponds to number 4 above. o This would be the sum of Generation data for all generation in the BAA, except those units on AGC and/or identified in number 1 (units identified to provide in- hour reserve). Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 99 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!!!"##$%&'(!/!*!+,-$!.! ! o If the AGC mix changes constantly or non-AGC units are brought online unscheduled to free up space on AGC units (i.e. stand-by units), only include generators that are NEVER deployed to balance the system. o The generation units included here must be the same units as identified in number 4 above. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 100 of 108 ! ! !! APPENDIX 7 ! ! [Reserved] Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 101 of 108 ! ! !! APPENDIX 8 Analytical Team Final Report on Its Analysis of Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the Northwest Power Pool Area The final report of the MC Initiative Analytical Team presenting its Analysis of Benefits of an Energy Imbalance Market in the Northwest Power Pool Area is available at the following link: http://www.nwpp.org/documents/MC-Public/NWPP_EIM_Final_Report_10_18_2013.pdf Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 102 of 108 ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.!! APPENDIX 9 TRANSMISSION VISIBILITY ENHANCMENT WHITE PAPER Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) currently maintains a simplified radial connectivity transmission model. With the growth in the NWPP geographic area and the additional transmission, NWPP members are finding that the radial model is insufficient for ensuring reliable deployment of resources without the potential of congestion. NWPP has investigated the ability of a new software solution to more fully take into account the actual physical system when deploying resources. 1. Value Proposition The Balancing Authorities in the NWPP presently do not get as much out of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program as they could due to the simplified representation of and limited information about the NWPP area transmission system available to the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. The Contingency Reserve Sharing Program computer system has information about real-time flows on only six major transmission paths, and it evaluates the deliverability of contingency reserve between Balancing Authorities based on this limited information. Thus, there may be times when the monitored paths are fully loaded, but real-time transfer capability is available on other tie-lines between NWPP Balancing Authorities. This means, in effect, that the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program may give a “false negative” – indicating that contingency reserve cannot be shared between two or more Balancing Authorities when in fact it could if more complete transmission system information were available. This limited visibility also means the accuracy and “granularity” of the picture NWPP Balancing Authorities have of how system flows will change from deployment of contingency reserve is less than ideal. As the MC Participants are well aware, the NWPP Balancing Authorities (and their customers) receive significant value from the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program, both operationally (through more robust, coordinated responses to system contingencies) and economically (through reduced quantities of contingency reserve required by the Reserve Sharing Group as compared to what individual Balancing Authorities would to carry to comply with applicable reliability standards if the Reserve Sharing Group did not exist). Conservative estimates place this value at $300 million annually. The limited transmission visibility of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program may prevent the NWPP Balancing Authorities from getting as much value as possible out of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Although the primary impetus to move ahead with Transmission Visibility Enhancement may be the immediate value it will bring to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program (at modest cost – see Section 4 of this paper), it can also serve as a fundamental building block to support other activities that may either be part of or take place outside of the MC Initiative. Some of these further opportunities are discussed in Section 5 of this paper. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 103 of 108 ! ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! 2. Scope The proposed solution is to create a new component (Market Sense Application) that provides the necessary transmission visibility to analyze deployment of resources while fully accounting for physical congestion. Initially the proposed solution would: ! Analyze the ability to deploy – The new application runs with the actual power network (BPA data base which is linked to the WECC West-wide System Model) and then determines if the suggested reserve is sufficient to meet the largest contingency in each reserve zone without violations. The new application suggests changes to allocation of resource to address physical congestion. ! Validation of deployment/re-deployment – The new application runs and determines a deployment that eliminates or reduces violation (transmission congestion). Deployment follows a set of rules (Contingency Reserve rules are set and known). ! Ensure the deliverability of resources – The new application runs and determines if under current conditions the system is in a state where resources can be delivered without violations. The new application will be run independent of any existing program such as the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Any existing or future program will be able to link to the new application for enhancements of the programs. This solution is not the same as the WECC RC effort associated with the Enhanced Curtailment Calculator (ECC). The proposed solution is forward looking where the ECC is a real-time tool. The rules associated with looking forward will be driven by the associated process, such as Contingency Reserve Sharing and Following Reserve Assistance Program. 3. Solution The proposed solution is to create a new application in real-time mode that fits into existing programs, such as Contingency Reserve Sharing, as well as potential new programs, such as the Following Reserve Assistance Program. The main reason for taking this approach is to limit the overall scope and cost. To minimize the impact, the existing data to/from SCADA for Contingency Reserve Sharing Group will be kept untouched and the interface with this new application will be kept as simple as possible like a flat file exchange or ISD SCADA data exchange. This new application will perform the following tasks: ! Calculate (using existing Network Sensitivity Calculation (NETSENS) & Real- Time Line Outage Distribution Factor Calculation (RTLODF) tool) a weighted balancing authority sensitivity factor to each path based on the current network topology and states (i.e. copied from a solved RTNET case) with respect to the Most Severe Single Contingency. ! Use the solved network states to bias the sensitivity factor to the resource deployment flow range. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 104 of 108 ! ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! ! Read the provided resource requirements for each balancing authority and the existing deployments. ! Test internal and external delivery impacts. o Report insufficient resources for internal deliveries if the internal resources do not meet the largest internal contingency. Report the deficiency. o Report resource deliverability issues for external deliveries if the full delivery of internal resource violates a monitored path. Report the path and the degree of violation. ! If contingency reserve is called: o Apply heuristics (pro-rata) deployment and calculate impact on monitored paths. If violations are found, re-dispatch to eliminate violations. If violations cannot be removed with re-dispatch, no other mechanism will be tried to optimally reduce the violations. o Update deployments with calculated results 4. Budget Software solution $300,000 Integration (BPA’s employees or contractors) $200,000 ($150/hour for 1,300 hours) Total estimated costs $500,000 Dependent upon availability of resources the proposed solution may be available within a six-month period. 5. Future Initiatives Because this proposed solution is a fundamental building block to address other activities including the MC Initiative, the following activities can build on the Transmission Visibility Enhancement effort to solve many other outstanding issues if entities opt to implement it. ! Following Reserve Assistance Program – shadow trial and field trial: The Following Reserve Assistance Program is built off the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program protocols and algorithm. The proposed Following Reserve Assistance Program treats transmission exactly the same as the Contingence Reserve Program. It monitors critical paths between Contingency Reserve Sharing Zones and allows requests to extend beyond the requesting zone if real time transmission is available. Any change or expansion of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program associated with transmission will also be implemented in the Following Reserve Sharing Program as applicable. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 105 of 108 ! ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! ! Program Impact on Transmission Flow: Some current regional transmission discussions have centered around how programs like the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program, Reliability Based Control, and the proposed Following Reserve Assistance Program impact transmission flow and potentially increase unscheduled flow. The system modeling and data capture associated with the Transmission Visibility Expansion will allow the completion of transmission flow analysis to determine the impact these programs have on unscheduled system flow. ! Coordinated Intra-Hour Dispatch to Manage Transmission Curtailment Events This program is similar in concept to the “event-driven” operational assistance provided by the Following Reserve Assistance Program. In effect, this could be an intermediate step between a program based solely on sharing of within-hour balancing capacity and a fully automated, continuous sub-hourly optimization process. It is different from the Following Reserve Assistance Program in that: o its primary focus is on effective management of curtailment situations (based on system physics, rather than paper schedules), o it would not be limited to working only from a pool of within-hour balancing capacity (or “Program Reserves”) carried by the Participating BAs (participants could voluntarily make more of their resource portfolios available to each other), and o participants could introduce explicit economic stacking of resources to be shared to manage curtailments. In order for the coordinated intra-hour dispatch program to work it will require an accurate system model and associated real-time data. The Transmission Visibility Expansion project will provide the ability to meet these requirements. ! Situational Analyses and System Visibility As transmission operators (TOPs) and BAs face increasing requirements and responsibilities driven, in particular, by the 2011 Southwest Outage Report recommendations, some elements of their expanded situational awareness and data-sharing obligations could be managed more effectively and at lower cost on a collective level (as opposed to each entity separately developing and staffing a full suite of in-house capabilities). The Transmission Visibility Expansion project may be able to provide some of the additional system modeling and visibility requested from the FERC/NERC joint Outage Report and recommendations. ! Functions Associated with EIM (Market Function, etc.) The security constrained economic dispatch requires detailed modeling and monitoring of the regional transmission system. The Transmission Visibility Expansion project can be used as the foundation for the EIM transmission system model. The Visibility project can be used and expanded or modified according to the needs of the Market Operator, Market Participants, and Market Monitor. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 106 of 108 ! ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! 6. Questions and Answers Question 1: Is the Transmission Visibility Enhancement proposal specific to the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program? Answer 1: No. Although, as explained in Section 1 of this paper, maintaining and potentially increasing the value of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program is the most immediate driver for the Transmission Visibility Enhancement proposal (and has been under discussion within the Reserve Sharing Group for some time), the Transmission Visibility Enhancement will not be specifically tailored to or tied in with the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. It will provide inputs to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program computer system that manages reserve calculations and deployment, but it will run as a separate software capability and will not be “captive” to the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Question 2: Would NWPP Balancing Authorities need to create or acquire new supporting communications and system model inputs to make the Transmission Visibility Enhancement solution useful? Answer 2: No. The Transmission Visibility Enhancement solution would be able to import data from the high-resolution transmission system model maintained by the Bonneville Power Administration (or another large transmission operator in the Northwest Power Pool area), and operate in tandem with the existing Balancing Authority-to-Balancing Authority communications capabilities (ICCP links) currently used for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Question 3: Is the proposed Transmission Visibility Enhancement solution necessary for the continued operation of the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program? Answer 3: No, but it would be a meaningful improvement to how well the program works. Today, the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program is functional and provides significant value to the Balancing Authorities in the Northwest Power Pool area. We have limited transmission system visibility for the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program – real-time metering (no state estimation) on significant tie-lines lets us know what the loading looks like on major Northwest Power Pool area transmission paths. We can’t see what is going on with secondary paths, and so we are more limited in our ability to deploy shared contingency reserve than we would be if we had more complete visibility into the full transmission system as well as state estimation capabilities. And, over time, these limitations are Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 107 of 108 ! ! ! !"##$%&'(!)!*!+,-$!.! ! likely to become more and more serious impairments to the value and effectiveness of the Contingency Reserve Sharing Program. Question 4: Is the proposed Transmission Visibility Enhancement solution necessary to implement one or more stages of the Following Reserve Assistance Program? Answer 4: No. NWPP Balancing Authorities could share Program Reserve based on what we know about the major transmission paths, but we could do more if we had better transmission system visibility. The bottom line is we can move ahead with implementing any phase of the Following Reserve Assistance Program (shadow trial, field trial, or full implementation) without having to wait until the Transmission Visibility Enhancement is in place. Question 5: Can the Transmission Visibility Enhancement be used for purposes other than supporting the NWPP Contingency Reserve Sharing Program? Answer 5: Yes. As described in Section 5 of this paper, the Transmission Visibility Enhancement solution can serve as a fundamental building block to support other activities that may either be part of or take place outside of the MC Initiative. Staff_PR_056 Attachment A Page 108 of 108