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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20251219Staff Comments.pdf RECEIVED December 19, 2025 JEFFREY R. LOLL IDAHO PUBLIC DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL UTILITIES COMMISSION IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION PO BOX 83720 BOISE, IDAHO 83702 (208) 334-0357 IDAHO BAR NO. 11675 Attorney for the Commission Staff BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF IDAHO POWER ) COMPANY'S APPLICATION FOR ) CASE NO. IPC-E-25-27 APPROVAL OF A POWER PURCHASE ) AGREEMENT WITH BLACKS CREEK ) ENERGY CENTER,LLC ) REDACTED COMMENTS OF THE COMMISSION STAFF COMMISSION STAFF ("STAFF") OF the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission"), by and through its attorney of record, Jeffrey R. Loll, Deputy Attorney General, submits the following comments. BACKGROUND On September 5, 2025, Idaho Power Company("Company") applied to the Commission requesting: (1) approval of the 25-year Power Purchase Agreement("PPA")between Blacks Creek Energy Center, LLC and the Company, and (2) acknowledgment that the resulting expenses associated with the PPA are prudently incurred for ratemaking purposes ("Application"). The PPA is a 25-year agreement to supply 80 megawatts ("MW") of output from the Black's Creek solar-powered generation facility ("Project"). On October 6, 2025, the Commission issued a Notice of Application and a Notice of Intervention Deadline establishing a 21-day intervention period. The Commission granted STAFF COMMENTS 1 DECEMBER 19, 2025 intervenor status to the Idaho Irrigation Pumpers Association, Inc. and Micron Technology, Inc. Order Nos. 36803 and 36828. STAFF ANALYSIS Staff reviewed the Company's Application and supporting documentation and recommends that the Commission approve the PPA. Staff also recommends that the Commission acknowledge that once the proposed system is in service, the contracted PPA expenses will be prudently incurred. Staff s analysis is described below. I. A Need for New Resources Exists Staff agrees that the Company's system faces a capacity deficit in 2027 and therefore additional resources are necessary to ensure system reliability. The Company states that "[t]he most recent system reliability assessment has identified a capacity deficit of 143 MW in 2027." Ellsworth Direct at 8. Staff reviewed the load and resource assumptions that the Company used to make this determination and concludes that the true capacity deficit is greater than 143 MW. According to Company witness Ellsworth, the 143 MW capacity deficit was calculated assuming that"all 2026 projects, the Jackalope Project, the Crimson Orchard Project...reach commercial operation on time." Ellsworth Direct at 9 (emphasis added). After this testimony was filed, the Company filed Case No. IPC-E-25-28 which requested permission to withdraw from the Jackalope Project because the developer could not meet the planned commercial operation date for 2027. The removal of Jackalope Project capacity from the Company's load and resource assumptions means the Company has fewer resources than it initially assumed at the time of filing its Application; therefore, its system capacity deficit must be greater than 143 MW in 2027. Moreover, Staff believes that additional cost-effective resources beyond the Project are needed to ensure system reliability. II. The Project Is a Least-Cost and Least-Risk Resource Staff believes that the Project is a least-cost, least-risk("LC-LR")resource. STAFF COMMENTS 2 DECEMBER 19, 2025 a. The 2028 REP Selection Process Was Fair and Reasonable The fairness of the 2028 All-Source Request for Proposal ("RFP")process is foundational to any of its results. Staff carefully reviewed Company Witness Hackett's testimony and the closing report from the Independent Evaluator("IE"), Confidential Exhibit No. 3. From this review, Staff believes the selection process was fair and reasonable. Staff agrees that the Company's RFP "allowed bids for all commercially viable resource types that could meet the specified commercial operation date." Hackett Direct at 12. Staff also agrees that the bifurcation of the bidders into two groups was reasonable: Group One consisting of bids with a commercial operation date ("COD") on or before April 2028, and Group Two consisting of bids with a COD beyond April 2028. Staff believes that sufficient bidders applied to each group to ensure adequate competition in each group. The Project applied to Group One and was one of 95 proposals from 19 different bidders in that group. Id. Staff also believes the Company's evaluation of Group One bids was fair and reasonable. First, the IE affirmed the reasonableness in its closing report, stating"LEI attests to the reasonableness of IPC's approach in identifying bids for the final RFP shortlist. The process was conducted with the utmost fairness and impartiality,upholding the integrity of the selection process." Confidential Exhibit No. 3 at 8. Second, Staff independently examined the Company's calculations for each bidder's levelized cost of capacity("LCOC"), because those values are a major determinant in which resources are identified as LC-LR. See Confidential Attachment to Company Response to Staff Production Request No. 2. Staff believes that the LCOC values were fairly and reasonably determined. Accordingly, Staff agrees that the Group One preliminary final short list ("FSL") was reasonably determined. b. The Project Is a Least-Cost Resource Staff believes that the Project is a least-cost resource based on its top-tier outcome in the Group One FSL and its competitiveness with other recent Staff-recommended resources. After the Company determined the preliminary Group One FSL, the Company performed stochastic analyses to determine which combination of projects was least-cost across a wide variety of future conditions. The projects were then ranked according to their contributions to the optimal portfolios. Confidential Exhibit No. 2 lists the ranked FSL projects. The Project is STAFF COMMENTS 3 DECEMBER 19, 2025 among the top performing bids. Staff independently verified this analysis. See Confidential Attachment to Company Response to Staff Production Request No. 3. Furthermore, the levelized fixed pricing identified in this PPA is competitive with other recent Staff-recommended resources.' Case Nos. IPC-E-24-46 (Jackalope Wind) and IPC-E-25- 10 (Crimson Orchard)both include variable energy resources structured as PPAs with levelized fixed pricing per megawatt-hour("MWh"). Staff recommended each of those resources as LC- LR given the circumstances known at the time, and this project's levelized fixed price per MWh is objectively competitive with those two projects. Based on the reasons stated above, Staff believes the Project is a least-cost resource. c. The Project Is a Least-Risk Resource Staff believes the Project is a least-risk resource due to the anticipated reduction of the overall capacity deficit, the expedited timeframe for the project to be brought online, and reduced development risks due to leveraging an existing project. Staff agrees with Company Witness Ellsworth who stated, "the addition of the Blacks Creek PPA would reduce the 2027 capacity deficit of 143 MW to a capacity deficit of 120 MW." Ellsworth Direct at 9. Staff believes that this proposed resource would aid in the reduction of risk to reliability by reducing the capacity deficit. Staff also notes that the project reduces reliability risk as it can be brought online relatively quickly because many of the typical development risks have been resolved. First, the developer is already mobilized on site for a similar project. Second, the project site has space for the additional photovoltaic panels needed for the project. Finally, the existing Generation Interconnection Agreement with the developer has 80 MW of incremental unused capacity. Hackett Direct at 22-23. Staff believes these circumstances significantly reduce the risk of meeting the online date and are major factors in reducing the overall risk of the project. Taking all the above points into consideration, Staff agrees with Company Witness Hackett who states, "With a remaining 2027 capacity deficit of 143 MW, the Blacks Creek Project is necessary to continue to provide safe, reliable electric service in 2027 and beyond." Hackett Direct at 27-28. 'See Confidential Exhibit No.4 at 89. STAFF COMMENTS 4 DECEMBER 19, 2025 d. Import Tariffs One final consideration is the impact of import tariffs. Section 6.1 of the PPA (Confidential Exhibit No. 4) includes provisions associated with new tariffs or increases or decreases to existing import tariffs. Staff agrees with Company Witness Hackett's reasoning that the frequently changing tariff situation should not change the relative rankings of the remaining 2028 bids in the FSL. Hackett Direct at 28. The provisions allow e. The PPA Terms Are Reasonable In addition to tariff considerations discussed above, Staff carefully reviewed the other terms of the PPA and believes that the terms reasonably protect the Company and ratepayers from harm. These terms include a project development security and an output guarantee. The ratepayers will also benefit from the Company obtaining ownership of the renewable energy certificates generated by the project. Hackett Direct at 25-26. f. Conclusion In conclusion, Staff believes that the Project is a LC-LR resource. Therefore, Staff recommends that the Commission approve the PPA and acknowledge that once the system is placed in service, any contracted PPA expenses will be prudently incurred. III. Other Considerations Staff addresses two issues that are highlighted by this case but are not germane to assessing the prudence of the resource: a) cost causation and b) mitigation of the capacity deficit. a. Cost Causation Cost causation has been a significant topic of discussion in recent months because of the unprecedented load growth facing the Company. The draft 2025 Integrated Resource Plan STAFF COMMENTS 5 DECEMBER 19, 2025 ("IRP") shows that the compound annual system average load growth rate from 2026-2031 is forecast to be seven percent overall, ranging as low as 0.5 percent for residential load and as high as 31 percent for additional firm load. 2025 IRP, Appendix C at 6. In aggregate, this imminent load growth is the cause of the annual capacity deficits, and therefore it is the cause for projects procured to mitigate that capacity deficit, including this project. Consistent with the cost-causation principle, there is understandable interest in analyzing this project with the goal of assigning allocation of cost recovery. Staff does not believe this case is the right forum for cost allocation. The purpose of this case is to determine the prudence of the resource. Staff believes the correct forum to debate the allocation of costs is a separate docket that is proposed in the pending settlement for Case No. IPC-E-25-16. b. Mitigation of the Capacity Deficit Another issue highlighted by this case is the looming capacity deficit for 2027. As discussed earlier, the Project will reduce the 2027 capacity deficit from 147 MW to 120 MW, if it and several other projects are built on schedule. In fact,because of the Jackalope project cancellation, the deficit is likely to be greater than 120 MW. Furthermore, all the remaining bids from the 2028 RFP have a COD of 2028 or later, so these potential resources will not mitigate the 2027 deficit. Staff is unaware of any additional supply-side resources that can be procured and brought online in 2027. Historically, firm market purchases would be used to cover these capacity deficits, but Staff believes that both transmission capacity and surplus generation capacity are increasingly scarce. Furthermore, due to short supply and high demand, any such firm purchases are likely to be expensive. Accordingly, Staff recommends that the Company outline and communicate its plan to mitigate the 2027 capacity deficit, due to the perceived lack of additional potential resources and the size of the 2027 deficit. Also, if the Company makes firm market purchases to cover the 2027 capacity deficit, it should keep distinct records of those purchases so that they can be properly allocated. STAFF COMMENTS 6 DECEMBER 19, 2025 STAFF RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the Commission approve the PPA and acknowledge that once the system is placed in service, the contracted PPA expenses will be prudently incurred. Staff also recommends that the Commission direct the Company to outline and communicate its plan to mitigate the 2027 capacity deficit. If the mitigation plan involves firm market capacity purchases, the Company should keep distinct records of those purchases so that they can be properly allocated. Respectfully submitted this 19th day of December 2025. Jeffrev R_ Loll Deputy Attorney General Technical Staff. Matt Suess, Vicki Stephens I:\Utility\UMISC\COMMENTS\IPC-E-25-27 Comments-Redacted.docx STAFF COMMENTS 7 DECEMBER 19, 2025 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT I HAVE THIS 19th DAY OF DECEMBER 2025, SERVED THE FOREGOING REDACTED COMMENTS OF THE COMMISSION STAFF, IN CASE NO. IPC-E-25-27, BY E-MAILING A COPY THEREOF TO THE FOLLOWING: Idaho Power Company: DONOVAN E. WALKER TIM TATUM LEAD COUNSEL VICE PRESIDENT, REGULATORY IDAHO POWER COMPANY AFFAIRS 1221 WEST IDAHO STREET (83702) IDAHO POWER COMPANY PO BOX 70 1221 WEST IDAHO STREET (83702) BOISE ID 83707-0070 PO BOX 70 E-MAIL: BOISE ID 83707-0070 dwalkergidahopower.com E-MAIL: dockets(a,idahopower.com ttatum&idahopower.com Intervenor Intervenor IIPA MICRON Eric L. Olsen Austin Rueschhoff Echo Hawk& Olsen, PLLC Thorvald A. Nelson P.O. Box 6119 Austin W. Jensen 505 Pershing Ave., Ste. 100 Kristine A.K. Roach Pocatello, ID 83205 Holland&Hart, LLP elo&echohawk.com 555 171h St., Suite 3200 tayshagechohawk.com Denver, CO 80202 E-MAIL: Lance Kaufinan, Ph.D. darueschhoff(c hollandhart.com 2623 NW Bluebell Place tnelson&hollandhart.com Corvallis, OR 97330 aw'enl sen(d),hollandhart.com E-MAIL: lance&ae isg insi hg t.com karoachghollandhart.com aclee(d,hollandhart.com � tic Req'L' PATRICIA JORDA9, SECRETARY CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE