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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20150812AVU to Staff 50 Attachment E.pdf 2013 Asset Management Distribution Program Update Amber Fowler, Rodney Pickett, Doug Forkner, and Thomas Morrell 02-17-2013 AM plans have been created and reviewed, only a portion of the plans discussed have been Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 1 of 73 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Purpose ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Data Sources ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Standard Calculations ................................................................................................................................... 2 Review of OMT Data and Trends .................................................................................................................. 2 OMT Events per Year ................................................................................................................................ 2 SAIFI Trends by OMT Sub-Reasons ........................................................................................................... 8 OMT Sub-Reason Events High Limit ........................................................................................................ 10 Specific Distribution Programs and Assets ................................................................................................. 17 Distribution Wood Pole Management (WPM)........................................................................................ 17 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 17 WPM Metric Performance .................................................................................................................. 20 WPM Model Performance .................................................................................................................. 20 WPM Summary ................................................................................................................................... 21 Wildlife Guards ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 27 WILDLIFE GUARDS KPI Performance ................................................................................................... 28 WILDLIFE GUARDS Metric Performance ............................................................................................. 28 WILDLIFE GUARDS Model Performance ............................................................................................. 29 WILDLIFE GUARDS Summary .............................................................................................................. 29 URD Primary Cable .................................................................................................................................. 32 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 32 URD PRIMARY CABLE KPI Performance .............................................................................................. 33 URD PRIMARY CABLE Metric Performance ......................................................................................... 34 URD PRIMARY CABLE Model Performance ......................................................................................... 34 URD PRIMARY CABLE Summary .......................................................................................................... 35 URD Secondary Cable.............................................................................................................................. 35 Open Wire Secondary ............................................................................................................................. 35 Distribution Cutouts ................................................................................................................................ 35 Distribution Air Switches ......................................................................................................................... 35 Distribution Mid-Line Reclosers .............................................................................................................. 35 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 2 of 73 Distribution Mid-Line Voltage Regulators............................................................................................... 36 Primary Conductors ................................................................................................................................ 36 Primary Connections ............................................................................................................................... 37 Secondary Conductors ............................................................................................................................ 37 Secondary Connectors ............................................................................................................................ 37 Distribution Transformers ....................................................................................................................... 37 Selected Metrics ................................................................................................................................. 37 Metric Performance ............................................................................................................................ 38 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Area and Street Lights ............................................................................................................................. 38 Riser Terminations .................................................................................................................................. 38 Dead End Insulators ................................................................................................................................ 38 Distribution Capacitors ........................................................................................................................... 39 9CE12F4 Partial Feeder Rebuild .............................................................................................................. 39 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 39 Partial Feeder Rebuild KPI Performance ............................................................................................. 39 Partial Feeder Rebuild Metric Performance ....................................................................................... 39 Partial Feeder Rebuild Model Performance ....................................................................................... 41 Partial Feeder Rebuild Summary ........................................................................................................ 41 Chance Cutouts ....................................................................................................................................... 42 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 42 Chance Cutouts KPI and Metric Performance .................................................................................... 42 Chance Cutouts Model Performance .................................................................................................. 44 Chance Cutouts Summary ................................................................................................................... 44 Distribution Vegetation Management (VM) ........................................................................................... 44 Selected KPIs and Metrics ................................................................................................................... 44 VM KPI Performance ........................................................................................................................... 46 VM Metric Performance ..................................................................................................................... 48 VM Model Performance...................................................................................................................... 49 VM Summary....................................................................................................................................... 49 Distribution Grid Modernization Program .............................................................................................. 49 Selected Metrics ................................................................................................................................. 50 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 3 of 73 Metric Performance ............................................................................................................................ 54 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 54 Asset Management Area Work plans for Electric Distribution ...................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Spokane Area Work Plans .......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 1, OMT Annual Number of Events and AM Related Event Trends and Trend Lines .......................... 7 Figure 2, OMT Events with and without Planned Maintenance or Upgrades .............................................. 8 Figure 3, Individual Sub-Reasons exceeding Quarterly High Limits ............................................................ 12 Figure 4, Top 10 Sub-Reasons with the Value of SAIFI Rising over Time .................................................... 13 Figure 5, 2013 OMT SAIFI Contribution by Sub-Reason ............................................................................. 14 Figure 6, 2012 OMT Sustained Outage Comparisons ................................................................................. 15 Figure 7, Customers Affected Per Event Exceeding Risk Action Levels ...................................................... 16 Figure 8, WPM OMT Event Trends .............................................................................................................. 22 Figure 9, WPM Contribution to Annual SAIFI value by Sub-Reason and Year ............................................ 23 Figure 10, Wood Pole Used by Summarized Activity .................................................................................. 24 Figure 11, Distribution Wood Pole Age Profile ........................................................................................... 25 Figure 12, WPM Model Projections vs Actual Usage for 2013 ................................................................... 26 Figure 13, Wildlife Guards Installed by Year and Expenditure Request ..................................................... 30 Figure 14, Wildlife Guards Usage by MAC for 2009-2013 .......................................................................... 31 Figure 15, URD Primary Cable OMT Events by Year ................................................................................... 34 Figure 16, All OMT Sub-Reasons except Maint/Upgrade for Feeder 9CE12F4 2002-2013 ........................ 40 Figure 17, Selected OMT Trends for AM Related Events with Upward Trends for Feeder 9CE12F4 ......... 41 Figure 18, Cutout/Fuse OMT Event Comparison between Actual, Projected without Action, and Projected with Action ................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure 19, OMT Events Data Trends for Tree-Weather, Tree Growth, and Tree Fell Sub-Reasons............ 47 Figure 20, OMT Outage and Partial Outage Data Trends for Tree-Weather, Tree Growth, and Tree Fell Sub-Reasons ................................................................................................................................................ 48 Figure 21, OMT Sustained Outages related to Grid Modernization ........................................................... 53 Table 1, OMT Events by Sub-Reason and Year ............................................................................................. 2 Table 2, OMT Outages and Partial Outages by Sub-Reason and Year .......................................................... 4 Table 3, Top Ten Trends Upward in OMT Data by Sub-Reason based on 2007-2013 data .......................... 5 Table 4, Top Ten Trends Downward in OMT Data by Sub-Reason based on 2007-2013 data ..................... 6 Table 5, SAIFI Trends by OMT Sub-Reason Average per Outage .................................................................. 9 Table 6, OMT Sub-Reasons Exceeding Annual High Limit ........................................................................... 11 Table 7, WPM KPI Goals by Year ................................................................................................................. 18 Table 8, WPM Metric Goals by Year ........................................................................................................... 19 Table 9, Wildlife KPI Goals for 2010 - 2015 ................................................................................................. 28 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 4 of 73 Table 10, Wildlife Metric Goals for 2010 - 2015 ......................................................................................... 28 Table 11, Worst Feeders for Squirrel related Events for 2010 - 2012 ........................................................ 29 Table 12, URD Cable - Pri KPI Goals ............................................................................................................ 33 Table 13, URD Cable - Pri Metric Goals ....................................................................................................... 33 Table 14, TCOP Metrics ............................................................................................................................... 38 Table 15, Chance Cutout Replacement KPI and Metric Goals .................................................................... 42 Table 16, Chance Cutout KPI and Metric Performance .............................................................................. 43 Table 17, Vegetation Management KPI Goals ............................................................................................ 45 Table 18, Vegetation Management Metric Goals ....................................................................................... 45 Table 19, VM KPI Performance ................................................................................................................... 46 Table 20, Tree-Weather OMT Events Metric for Vegetation Management ............................................... 49 Table 21, VM Cost per Mile and All Vegetation Management Work Metric .............................................. 49 Table 22, Grid Modernization Program Objectives .................................................................................... 50 Table 23, Energy Savings based on 2013 Integrated Resource Plan ............. Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 24, OMT Sub-Reasons impacted by Grid Modernization .................................................................. 52 Table 25, Metric Performance for Grid Modernization Program ............................................................... 54 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 5 of 73 Introduction As Avista incorporates more work and Asset Management (AM) Plans each year, Asset Management is committed to monitor how these activities impact our systems and document the value created by the programs. Reviewing the results of AM activities and system responses provides us with the feedback necessary to learn and improve our plans and processes. These outcomes also help drive future work when actions don’t yield the desired results or we find there is even more value of further work. In the end, our commitment to continuous improvement require us to examine how we have impacted our systems and learn from what has happened to make tomorrow’s plans work better. Purpose This report documents the KPIs and metrics AM uses for the Distribution system and provides the results for 2013. Some of the metrics provide a basis for comparing how an asset performed with a program and how it would have performed without a program. The difference in performance provides an estimate of the cost saving of the program. The estimated savings is only a snapshot in time and may not represent the exact savings; it provides a relative comparison and supporting justification for AM decisions made in the past. Other KPIs and metrics provide indications of how well an asset is performing and helps determine when further work is required. KPIs and metrics tracking also help evaluate the accuracy of different AM models and determine when or if a model should be revised. Data Sources Information used in this report’s metrics comes from three sources: Annual Sustained and Momentary outage data; Outage Management Tool (OMT) events; and Discoverer. The annual Sustained and Momentary outage data is generated by the Distribution Dispatch Engineer each month in a spreadsheet. The Sustained and Momentary outage data for years 2001 – 2007 was modified by AM to align the reasons and sub-reasons to coincide with the current descriptions. While the Sustained and Momentary outage data comes from OMT data and is a subset of OMT data, this data has been scrubbed by the Distribution Dispatch Engineer to improve its accuracy. The OMT tracks outages and customer reports of problems on the Distribution system, Substations, and Transmission events that cause outages on the Distribution system. This data includes sustained outages, momentary outages, and events without outages. Events that only cause a partial outage or no outage at all do not show up in the Sustained and Momentary outage data, because the data does not fit the definition of a sustained outage or a momentary outage. However, the OMT data is subject to reporting an event more than once. The Distribution Dispatch Engineer reviews the data and strives to prevent duplication by rolling events up and editing the data. However, some duplication still occurs. OMT data is used to calculate number of outages, number of OMT events (outages, partial outages, and non-outage events), outage duration, number of customers impacted, response times, System Average Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 6 of 73 Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) impacts, and System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) impacts. Discoverer provides financial, customer information, and material usage information from our warehouse and financial systems. Spending and material can be tracked to the ER and BI level for capital work and the MAC and Task for Operations and Maintenance (O&M) work. Standard Calculations See reference the “2013 General Metrics Data Collection and Analysis for System Reviews” for the details and examples of how different measures and metrics are calculated. Review of OMT Data and Trends Examining the data in OMT reveals a lot of information which helps Avista understand the condition of our assets and shows some trends we can address. Below, we will examine various trends within OMT Events per Year, SAIFI trends by OMT Sub-Reasons, and other measures. OMT Events per Year Table 1 shows the past seven years of data out of OMT by Sub-Reason and allows trend analysis. OMT Events represents cost and action for Avista, so it was selected as a basis for much of our trending. However, OMT Outage data (shown in Table 2) can have a different trend than OMT Events. Since the SAIFI analysis already includes outage data, AM selected to trend OMT Events and SAIFI contribution. Based on Table 1, we identified the top 10 increasing and decreasing trends in OMT Sub-Reasons. The Top 10 increasing trends in the number of OMT events by year is shown in Table 3 and the Top 10 decreasing trends in the number of OMT events by year is shown in Table 4. Table 1, OMT Events by Sub-Reason and Year OMT SUB-REASON 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Arrester 26 26 19 32 30 36 24 Bird 220 187 218 179 332 231 270 Bus Insulator 2 1 1 Capacitor 6 4 4 2 4 4 Car Hit Pad 88 129 139 105 98 105 117 Car Hit Pole 231 202 217 298 339 355 369 Conductor - Pri 59 51 42 64 81 110 142 Conductor - Sec 231 252 286 273 310 286 331 Connector - Pri 89 99 111 101 100 79 85 Connector - Sec 340 395 429 410 408 390 336 Crossarm-rotten 46 38 23 25 28 19 18 Customer Equipment 1182 1475 1626 1458 1384 1434 1368 Cutout/Fuse 272 234 197 217 176 209 171 Dig In 132 152 164 149 123 109 103 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 7 of 73 OMT SUB-REASON 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Elbow 5 8 7 5 8 2 10 Fire 135 182 157 203 234 230 282 Forced 52 62 51 63 67 33 63 Foreign Utility 455 856 724 894 720 734 720 Highside Breaker 1 2 Highside Fuse 2 4 Highside Swt/Disconnect 4 Insulator 25 37 32 49 36 32 47 Insulator Pin 18 17 28 24 30 25 23 Junctions 1 2 2 1 4 6 Lightning 333 335 598 163 179 635 453 Lowside OCB/Recloser 1 2 6 8 4 Lowside Swt/Disconnect 2 1 Maint/Upgrade 331 350 539 1571 3334 2589 1840 Other 409 434 394 414 426 483 472 Pole Fire 116 157 116 102 117 113 152 Pole-rotten 25 44 44 37 35 52 34 Primary Splice 3 1 1 1 Protected 10 23 18 10 4 5 5 Recloser 4 2 4 11 3 2 3 Regulator 8 13 14 20 17 13 17 Relay Misoperation 1 1 5 7 5 SEE REMARKS 747 849 821 892 543 487 463 Service 113 144 123 188 197 230 191 Snow/Ice 249 2093 988 565 167 352 122 Squirrel 801 747 700 390 395 358 215 Switch/Disconnect 1 15 9 3 3 6 Termination 9 18 7 7 9 12 21 Transformer 5 5 3 9 2 Transformer - OH 179 211 158 128 156 167 132 Transformer UG 47 46 57 53 51 50 71 Tree 92 66 55 53 51 56 46 Tree Fell 315 470 390 506 392 377 298 Tree Growth 273 443 375 330 335 335 349 Underground 5 2 3 1 3 2 Undetermined 1014 1116 1145 948 861 783 765 URD Cable - Pri 198 176 136 93 95 72 93 URD Cable - Sec 185 212 212 190 248 219 208 Weather 251 564 357 895 325 314 216 Wildlife Guard 3 1 2 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 8 of 73 OMT SUB-REASON 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Wind 953 822 294 1309 256 1042 1126 Table 2, OMT Outages and Partial Outages by Sub-Reason and Year OMT SUB-REASON 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Arrester 25 22 18 31 30 32 21 Bird 215 178 213 175 322 225 259 Bus Insulator 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 Capacitor 3 2 4 1 0 3 2 Car Hit Pad 46 47 41 30 31 45 36 Car Hit Pole 133 104 104 135 131 158 152 Conductor - Pri 42 26 31 49 61 70 113 Conductor - Sec 102 107 117 104 126 124 147 Connector - Pri 71 88 102 84 82 59 68 Connector - Sec 224 246 272 263 270 267 227 Crossarm-rotten 38 28 11 20 24 17 15 Customer Equipment 897 1040 1205 1121 1034 1099 1037 Cutout/Fuse 238 207 175 194 161 185 155 Dig In 99 103 104 88 75 64 62 Elbow 5 7 7 5 7 2 10 Fire 68 31 8 69 72 82 102 Forced 52 61 51 63 67 33 63 Foreign Utility 63 110 78 103 61 62 90 Highside Breaker 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Highside Fuse 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 Highside Swt/Disconnect 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insulator 13 25 23 31 26 19 27 Insulator Pin 16 15 16 15 18 19 13 Junctions 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 Lightning 323 320 572 159 174 562 417 Lowside OCB/Recloser 1 2 6 8 3 0 0 Lowside Swt/Disconnect 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 Maint/Upgrade 331 342 534 1566 3331 2587 1834 Other 301 252 247 275 261 282 282 Pole Fire 108 130 101 87 93 95 128 Pole-rotten 5 7 14 11 10 9 7 Primary Splice 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 Protected 9 16 17 7 4 5 5 Recloser 4 2 3 9 1 2 3 Regulator 8 11 10 16 14 10 10 Relay Misoperation 1 1 5 7 0 0 5 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 9 of 73 OMT SUB-REASON 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SEE REMARKS 406 318 420 443 286 255 262 Service 80 92 59 89 86 59 55 Snow/Ice 225 1176 592 347 135 291 103 Squirrel 786 725 694 380 389 351 210 Switch/Disconnect 1 6 7 3 0 1 5 Termination 9 16 7 6 8 12 18 Transformer 5 5 0 3 0 9 2 Transformer - OH 164 193 143 107 138 150 117 Transformer UG 45 38 42 44 36 42 59 Tree 71 46 42 39 36 39 35 Tree Fell 176 255 186 234 215 229 183 Tree Growth 107 101 101 77 71 93 90 Underground 5 2 0 1 1 3 2 Undetermined 914 956 1023 855 799 684 669 URD Cable - Pri 197 153 132 89 92 71 89 URD Cable - Sec 168 194 201 175 227 202 190 Weather 192 358 273 620 178 170 137 Wildlife Guard 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 Wind 737 553 229 982 195 802 840 Table 3, Top Ten Trends Upward in OMT Data by Sub-Reason based on 2007-2013 data The largest upward trend continues to be our increase in maintenance and upgrade outages. We have implemented many programs that increase our outages due to maintenance but decrease the number of outages due to failures. It appears that Planned Work has had an impact on our outages. Nearly all of the Outage Sub-Reasons that are directly and indirectly affected by the Vegetation program, Wood Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 10 of 73 Pole Management, and other planned work are not represented on this list. The only outage Sub- Reason on the list that is affected by an Asset Management program is the Bird outage. This could be due to variables outside of our control and will need to be evaluated if this behavior continues. All of the remaining outage Sub-Reasons in Table 3 are at a level that a program is probably not needed or outside the scope of an Asset Management Program. Table 4 shows the Top 10 OMT Sub-Reasons with a downward trend. The largest downward trend is in Squirrel event driven largely by the results of adding Wildlife Guards (WLG) on new installs and adding them to existing transformers as part of Wood Pole Management and Grid Modernization. Our Cutout Replacement programs for Chance cutouts and bad cutouts identified by Wood Pole Management have made a great impact on the number of cutout events. The URD cable Replacement program for the first generation of unjacketed cable has paid great dividends when compared to where it could have been without taking action at reducing URD Cable – Pri events. The Tree events listed in Table 4 are for tree events caused by the public and are outside of our control. The remaining Sub Reasons in the table have trend downward but the changes are not material at this point in time. Table 4, Top Ten Trends Downward in OMT Data by Sub-Reason based on 2007-2013 data Top Ten Downward Trends OMT Sub-Reason Slope Change per Year Squirrel -99 Snow/Ice -93 Undetermined -54 SEE REMARKS -25 Weather -23 URD Cable - Pri -19 Cutout/Fuse -11 Transformer - OH -8 Dig In -8 Tree -5 The overall trends in OMT Events are shown in Figure 1 along with the trends in AM related OMT Events (see Appendix A of the “2013 Asset Management Electrical Distribution Program Review and Metrics” and the table titled “List of AM Related OMT Sub-Reasons” to see which OMT Sub-Reasons are considered AM Related). Based on Figure 1, Avista sees the number of events decreasing over the past 6 years. . Figure 2 also shows that the number of OMT events representing failures is on a downward trend over the past 6 years (see OMT Events w/o Maint/Upgrades for this trend). AM related OMT events are actually decreasing at a rate around 5%. Since the regional growth rates are less than 2%, the decrease is most probably due to the increase in maintenance in the system and replacement of aged infrastructure. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 11 of 73 Figure 1, OMT Annual Number of Events and AM Related Event Trends and Trend Lines Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 12 of 73 Figure 2, OMT Events with and without Planned Maintenance or Upgrades SAIFI Trends by OMT Sub-Reasons Examining how SAIFI changes each year is shown in Table 5. SAIFI values in Table 5 represent the annual value each event contributes to the overall SAIFI number. For example, in 2010, the average Arrester event in OMT added 0.0023076 to the overall SAIFI number for the year. While the number of electrical customers does grow each year, the main driver for changes in the average SAIFI number per event comes from the average numbers of customers affected by the event. Continuing our example with Arresters, in 2009 Avista had 356,777 electrical customers and the average Arrester outage event affected 111 customers, so the average SAIFI impact per event was 0.0023076. In 2011, our electrical customer count increased to 358,443 and the average number of customers affected by an Arrester related outage dropped to 40, and the average SAIFI impact due to Arrester events dropped to 0.0008451. The result for SAIFI was an increase in the average impact to SAIFI in 2010 compared to 2011. While most Sub-Reasons in OMT have fluctuating value around an average value over the past five years, some Sub-Reasons have demonstrated a definite trend upward as shown in Figure 4. Figure 4 shows the top 10 Sub-Reasons based on the percentage change in 2013. Some of the items in Figure 4 had small numerical changes but the percentage change was significant. The Car Hit Pole Sub-Reason is an example of this, because the number of OMT events was less than 300 between the years 2007-2010 and the SAIFI value in 2009 was 5.6*10-2 but moved steadily to 6.2*10-2 in 2013. Figure 5 and Figure 6 illustrate the makeup of the overall SAIFI value and overall OMT Sustained Outages. Figure 6 and Figure 5 show a different result because the number of customers impacted by Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 13 of 73 each Sub-Reason is different. For example, we have very few Lightning caused outages, but they affect a large number of customers. So, Lightning shows a significant impact to SAIFI in Figure 5 but is insignificant on Figure 6. Table 5, SAIFI Trends by OMT Sub-Reason Average per Outage Average SAIFI by Sub-Reason Event OMT Sub- Reason 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Arrester 0.01336324 0.011896617 0.008745915 0.009230266 0.003380523 0.015245676 0.003562297 Bird 0.015658058 0.016111406 0.051184585 0.026835343 0.050143556 0.015659978 0.064285794 Bus Insulator 0 0 0 0 0.009016775 0.000463618 0.00165077 Capacitor 0.000954613 0.002953837 0.002533353 0.002842798 0 0.006147101 8.27074E-06 Car Hit Pad 0.004577603 0.003859152 0.003022983 0.001972404 0.00315424 0.004171572 0.004940524 Car Hit Pole 0.082729511 0.056285174 0.05623644 0.055741604 0.034563763 0.078829605 0.061689509 Conductor - Pri 0.021600264 0.011489151 0.025289327 0.013459389 0.025213018 0.024181701 0.036457655 Conductor - Sec 0.001383003 0.001479731 0.001086872 0.001923463 0.001952154 0.003857768 0.002491023 Connector - Pri 0.019175112 0.044761723 0.036707546 0.029390854 0.022841718 0.023941651 0.01912657 Connector - Sec 0.002766032 0.002171923 0.00158371 0.001764569 0.001927718 0.002095065 0.001612901 Crossarm-rotten 0.050334458 0.0252873 0.001820303 0.010791352 0.017452881 0.004106797 0.001059746 Customer Equipment 7.49088E-05 0.000124802 8.77548E-05 8.43629E-05 4.18879E-05 0 4.96037E-05 Cutout/Fuse 0.015844599 0.024630616 0.020002232 0.029472485 0.014918168 0.027484801 0.01707108 Dig In 0.011935045 0.017879617 0.017426241 0.002911047 0.007751271 0.001543001 0.001766282 Elbow 0.000175223 0.001148975 0.001834192 9.54113E-05 0.000737521 2.50685E-05 0.001158911 Fire 0.017648049 0.001552322 0.000963714 0.000916016 0.001765849 0.004579849 0.012299424 Forced 0.022935126 0.037704074 0.041119919 0.026724006 0.011341762 0.01007956 0.035479695 Foreign Utility 4.62462E-05 0.000104966 9.67203E-06 0.06415389 1.9551E-05 1.10385E-05 3.04099E-05 Highside Breaker 0.005624164 0 0 0.001809346 0 0 0 Highside Fuse 5.79715E-06 0.003370373 0 0 0 0 0 Highside Swt/Disconnect 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insulator 0.006320321 0.005329816 0.032674813 0.00947135 0.00767475 0.001619894 0.018937297 Insulator Pin 0.015949133 0.002512396 0.00073663 0.00609977 0.012718209 0.002646432 0.004556295 Junctions 0.000127537 0 0 5.63488E-06 0 0.002791077 0.000475014 Lightning 0.128468634 0.083469701 0.093833897 0.05153771 0.029986357 0.107700751 0.152792603 Lowside OCB/Recloser 0.002156231 0.00501564 0.032172584 0.02327413 0.013159376 0 0 Lowside Swt/Disconnect 0 0 0.001932028 0 0 0 2.75588E-06 Maint/Upgrade 0.056121124 0.073959603 0.146879337 0.115272977 0.131045664 0.093958391 0.118799625 Other 0.139200478 0.087814989 0.158240122 0.177318475 0.156583826 0.114257941 0.085502603 Pole Fire 0.071639978 0.085131634 0.056866386 0.108242728 0.087722138 0.058825288 0.078650039 Pole-rotten 0.000430513 0.000936218 0.001111959 0.002027401 0.002475849 0.001111378 0.002186058 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 14 of 73 OMT Sub- Reason 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Primary Splice 8.94841E-05 2.81903E-06 0 1.40872E-05 0.000227493 0 0 Protected 0.009257534 0.013300204 0.006434116 0.005438117 0.000105902 0.000523814 0.000524546 Recloser 0.001297214 0.001916203 0.003492427 0.002520587 0.000212125 8.36386E-06 0.001310323 Regulator 0.005390496 0.024938242 0.011105746 0.019517299 0.003012273 0.020486437 0.010292094 Relay Misoperation 0.008228451 0.005720398 0.01961408 0.026993562 0 0 0.008117153 SEE REMARKS 0.015994757 0.032649991 0.017553605 0.0263254 0.022946333 0.024001629 0.035782952 Service 0.000501324 0.00054765 0.000382684 0.001512913 0.001254413 0.001425234 0.001116933 Snow/Ice 0.081725352 0.264038325 0.133791974 0.091003627 0.039682871 0.109703932 0.035007006 Squirrel 0.023857822 0.08015205 0.056647666 0.021425719 0.039013725 0.050207568 0.026293232 Switch/Disconnect 5.79715E-06 0.002055625 0.0165265 0.004582077 0 4.14971E-05 0.020930465 Termination 0.000467243 0.000867328 0.000227232 0.000152009 0.000173439 0.000637191 0.003063515 Transformer 0.009703026 0.023561073 0 0.002368376 0 0.026729531 0.00246343 Transformer - OH 0.007052431 0.01118744 0.00773242 0.002407314 0.017106495 0.004874802 0.004093373 Transformer UG 0.002360207 0.002263655 0.001051355 0.001704189 0.001165537 0.001438726 0.006231495 Tree 0.013180035 0.004975592 0.005575766 0.013288743 0.000938339 0.011356792 0.002750215 Tree Fell 0.076230149 0.057889379 0.048048112 0.092136448 0.062998204 0.067319172 0.054556299 Tree Growth 0.012134005 0.010881641 0.004394705 0.007012046 0.003838547 0.005569335 0.005691876 Underground 8.34231E-05 3.4203E-05 0 2.81744E-06 2.80426E-06 3.87453E-05 5.48895E-06 Undetermined 0.168118512 0.29086705 0.286489483 0.110134471 0.234672203 0.177748096 0.157264023 URD Cable - Pri 0.017483349 0.022121806 0.009632032 0.005903606 0.008770789 0.002422167 0.006080464 URD Cable - Sec 0.000815417 0.001058763 0.000945651 0.000953008 0.001467391 0.001544569 0.001409578 Weather 0.078263003 0.115917398 0.097935383 0.195547002 0.051231256 0.053674679 0.033680951 Wildlife Guard 0 0 8.47553E-06 0 0 8.35232E-06 0 Wind 0.232776552 0.220754073 0.115850205 0.291134088 0.089836161 0.195492335 0.209669949 OMT Sub-Reason Events High Limit The second metric used to determine if we must examine a problem is the deviation from the established mean discussed above for each OMT Sub-Reason. If the number of OMT events for a specific Sub-Reason exceeds the OMT Sub-Reason Events High Limit (High Limit) AM will conduct an investigation and try to explain why the annual values are exceeding the limit (see Appendix D of the “2013 Asset Management Electrical Distribution Program Review and Metrics”). The High Limit is based on the average of annual values for each Sub-Reason plus two standard deviations. This method is also used to calculate the quarterly High Limit as well. The data for the average is the OMT Data for 2006 through 2010. For 2013, the following OMT Sub-Reasons exceeded their High Limit are shown in Table 6. We anticipated that Avista would exceed these limits due to natural deviations for events outside our control and due to some cyclical nature we observe in our data. Our goal here is to help identify trends in time to potentially address them if possible. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 15 of 73 Table 6, OMT Sub-Reasons Exceeding Annual High Limit OMT Sub-Reasons Exceeding their associated OMT High Limit Number of Years High Limit Exceeded Bird 1 Car Hit Pole 4 Conductor - Pri 3 Elbow 1 Fire 3 Highside Breaker 1 Junctions 1 Maint/Upgrade 4 Regulator 1 Service 4 Termination 1 Based on Table 6, we currently don’t see any issues requiring changes to our current plans. Most of the issues identified above are outside our control. We will continue to monitor Fire, Service, Car Hit Pole and Conductor – Pri, as these may call for some kind of action in the future. Car Hit Pole is currently being analyzed by another group. If a program is implemented from this analysis then we should see this issue drop off the High Limit Exceeded chart. We will continue to monitor this issue. Figure 3 shows the quarterly trends that feed into the annual trends for the OMT High Limit. For all OMT Sub-Reasons, only three Sub-Reasons have had more than three quarters where they exceeded the High Limit, Car Hit Pole with 9 quarters above the limit, Maint/Upgrades, and Service with 6 quarters above the limit. This information is consistent with Table 6 above. We will continue to monitor Service for potential future action, but it currently does not warrant a maintenance or replacement strategy. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 16 of 73 Figure 3, Individual Sub-Reasons exceeding Quarterly High Limits y = 0.147x + 0.0032 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nu m b e r o f S u b -Re a s o n s e x c e e d i n g A v e r a g e l e v e l s b y 2 S t a n d a r d De v i a t i o n s Year - Quarter Individual Sub-Reasons Exceeding Average Levels by 2 Standard Deviations per Quarter Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 17 of 73 Figure 4, Top 10 Sub-Reasons with the Value of SAIFI Rising over Time 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Top 10 OMT Sub-Reasons in growing Unreliability by SAIFI Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 18 of 73 Figure 5, 2013 OMT SAIFI Contribution by Sub-Reason Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 19 of 73 Figure 6, 2012 OMT Sustained Outage Comparisons Maint/Upgrade 16% Customer Equipment 12% Wind 10% Undetermined 6% Foreign Utility 6% Other 4% SEE REMARKS 4% Lightning 4% Car Hit Pole 3% Tree Growth 3% Connector - Sec 3% Conductor - Sec 3% Tree Fell 3% Fire 2% Bird 2% Weather 2% Squirrel 2% URD Cable - Sec 2% Service 2% Cutout/Fuse 1% Pole Fire 1% Conductor - Pri 1% Transformer - OH 1% Snow/Ice 1% Car Hit Pad 1% Everything else 6% Sustained Events by OMT Subreason Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 20 of 73 Figure 7, Customers Affected Per Event Exceeding Risk Action Levels 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Cu s t o m e r s i m p a c t e d p e r e v e n t Annual RAL curves Switch/Disconnect Switch/Disconnect Risk Action Level Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 21 of 73 Specific Distribution Programs and Assets In the following sections, AM reviews the different programs and work done to determine an AM action plan for particular assets. Some plans indicated the current case or no action was the best approach and others indicated there was an appropriate action for managing an asset. If a plan was implemented, then the available information will be reviewed to determine how the plan has impacted the system. Distribution Wood Pole Management (WPM) The current WPM program inspects and maintains the existing distribution wood poles on a 20 year cycle. Avista has 7,793 circuit miles of Distribution lines that are predominately overhead. The average age of a wood pole is 28 years with a standard deviation of 21 years. Nearly 20% of all poles are over 50 years old and we have an estimated 240,000 Distribution poles in the system. This means that about 48,000 poles are currently over 50 years old. Our inspection cycle allows us to reach approximately 12,000 poles each year. Along with inspecting the poles, we inspect distribution transformers, cutouts, insulators, wildlife guards, lightning arresters, crossarms, pole guying, and pole grounds. The inspection of these other components on a pole drives additional action to replace bad or failed equipment along with replacing known problematic components. These additional inspection items have expanded the current program beyond the original scope, but have proven to be a cost effective way of addressing more than just wood pole issues. Selected KPIs and Metrics AM selected the number of OMT Events by Year related to WPM work and feeder miles of follow-up work completed verses miles of feeders inspected as KPIs to monitor WPM. These KPI relate to reliability performance, cost performance, and customer impacts. Our goal is to maintain or reduce the number of OMT events related to WPM. The current plan optimized the inspection cycle based on cost, so the impacts to reliability were addressed only as they relate to costs. The goal for these KPI is to stay below the number of events averaged over 2006 – 2010 for WPM Related OMT Events. See Table 7 for the goal and for the actual value for 2013. The Goal for the KPI is the 5 year average value using 2006- 2010. The OMT Events KPI is a lagging KPI and an indication of how well past work has impacted outages. The feeder miles of follow-up work completed verses miles of feeders inspected KPI is a leading indicator and reflects how outages in the future will be impacted by the work. The number of miles inspected is shown in Table 7 for the goal and actual values. The feeder miles of follow-up work completed verses miles of feeders inspected KPI comes from the annual Distribution WPM inspection plan and is the sum of all miles of the feeders completed in that year. The completed number of miles for follow-up work on feeders comes from Asset Maintenance based on their tracking of the work as it is completed The purpose of this metric is to evaluate how much backlog work is created each year in order to adjust future year’s budgets. Asset Management has been working to increase the budget each year, with the goal of having no back log, by budgeting enough to inspect and follow up on a 20 year cycle. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 22 of 73 Table 7, WPM KPI Goals by Year KPI Description WPM Goal Related number of OMT Events Related number Projected Miles Follow-up Work Actual Miles Follow- up Work Completed *Note: Beginning with 2012, the Actual Miles Follow-up Work Completed will include WPM and Distribution Grid Modernization miles. Metrics provide a more detailed review of WPM. WPM metrics involve more information and calculations than the KPIs and include: WPM contribution to the annual SAIFI number; number of distribution wood poles inspected; material usage for WPM by Electric Distribution Minor Blanket and Storms; number of Pole-Rotten OMT Events; Crossarms-Rotten OMT Events; and actual material use verses model predicted material use for WPM follow-up work (see Table 8). The WPM contribution to the annual SAIFI number metric comes from data pulled out of OMT by Cognos and calculates the average impact to SAIFI per event by Sub-Reason. The average impact to SAIFI per WPM event is the sum of the average impact to SAIFI for Arresters, Cutouts/Fuses, Crossarms, Insulators, Insulator Pins, Pole Fires, Poles – Rotten, Squirrels, Transformers- OH, and Wildlife Guards. The average impact to SAIFI for WPM events is then multiplied by the number of event causing an outage or partial outage (this is the sum of OMT events causing an outage or partial outage for Arresters, Cutouts/Fuses, Crossarms, Insulators, Insulator Pins, Pole Fires, Poles – Rotten, Squirrels, Transformers-OH, and Wildlife Guards). The goal for this metric is the five year average for 2005-2009. The purpose of this metric is to ensure WPM maintains the current reliability. The number of Distribution System poles inspected metric measures the annual plan for inspecting wood poles against how much work was actually completed. The AM plan calls for a 20 year inspection cycle which was originally estimated to be ~12,000 poles per year. The AM plan also represents inspecting 17.5 feeders a year. This metric ensures the WPM program meets the AM plan for Distribution Wood Poles. Material Usage for WPM by Electric Distribution Minor Blanket and Storms metric monitors other areas outside of AM that may reflect trends for WPM. However, this metric is outdated and no longer useful. New stock items are being tracked under this blanket and the 2012 and 2013 numbers are higher than previous years because of this. The number of stock items used is tracked and compared to the average used in 2006-2010 as a baseline. The purpose was to monitor for asset failures not indicated by OMT data, since not all failure information is captured by OMT. Some other form of tracking may need to be implemented in future years to monitor for asset failures not indicated by OMT data. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 23 of 73 The final metric, material use verses model predicted material use, tracks the actual number of key stock numbers (see Figure 12 for assets monitored) against what the AM model predicted. Discoverer is used to pull stock number usage out for the applicable stock numbers and then they are compared to the AM model predictions. The purpose of this metric is to measure the performance of the model to predict the future outcomes. If the difference between the model predictions and actual values becomes more than 30%, the model should be revised. Table 8, WPM Metric Goals by Year Figure 8 shows the trends in OMT events for the Sub-Reasons associated with WPM and generally the trend in OMT events is downward. The major contributors (Cutouts/Fuses, Squirrel, and Transformer – OH) all showed a level trend or a general trend downward over the past 5 years. Three of the four major contributors showed improvements from 2009 (Transformer - OH, Squirrel, and Cutouts) with the Squirrel sub-reason dropping drastically in the last year. Overall, WPM is controlling the number of OMT events. The leading indicator, Miles Follow-up Work Completed, shows we were falling behind in addressing issues identified during the inspection. If this backlog continues to grow, it will begin to impact the number of OMT events into the future. We plan to address the backlog by completing more Distribution Grid Modernization work, increasing funding for the follow-up work and reducing the number of inspections in 2015. Metric Description Projected WPM Contribution To The Annual SAIFI Number Actual WPM Contribution To The Annual SAIFI Number Projected Number of Dist Poles Inspected Actual Number of Dist Poles Inspected Material Usage For WPM By Elec Dist Minor Blanket and Usage For WPM By Elec Dist Minor Blanket and 18524 Metric Description Model Predicted Material Use for WPM Follow-up Work Material Use for WPM Follow-up Projected Number of Pole Rotten OMT Events Actual Number of Pole Rotten OMT Events Projected Number of Crossarm OMT Events Actual Number of Crossarm OMT Events 7538 7904 28011 28120 15214 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 24 of 73 The KPI “Actual Miles Follow-up Work Completed” provides an indication of what could happen to the other metrics (see Table 7). Simply inspecting the poles does not improve the systems performance. The follow-up work to the inspection needs to be completed. This metric shows follow-up work carrying over into 2013. The driver for WPM is a 20 year inspection cycle and if allowed to fall behind, the WPM follow-up work could become a major financial issue and reliability risk for future years Grid Modernization, discussed later in this document, also impacts the same metrics as WPM. In 2012, we revised the metrics and now include the miles of completed Grid Modernization work in the Table 7since the work is coordinated with WPM and intended to help address the backlog in WPM. WPM Metric Performance The annual contribution to SAIFI trend improved in 2013 even further and remains below the five year average value as shown in Table 8 and Figure 9. Overall, WPM has been effective at maintaining the current level of reliability to our customers. The number of Distribution poles inspected measures how well the program is performing against a 20 year inspection cycle. The goal is to inspect every feeder once every 20 years. The work to perform the wood pole inspections is tracked based on the number of poles inspected. Using miles works, but different feeders have different pole densities per mile and the way the contractor bills for the inspection work makes using the number of poles inspected easier. The results of the work exceeded the planned number of inspections shown in Table 8. The completed inspections are following the AM plan for WPM very nicely. Other work besides WPM has contributed significantly to the number of poles inspected annually over the past two years. The Smart Grid project worked on a lot of poles in 2012 that were not part of WPM along with the Transformer Change Out Program. Figure 10 shows how Avista’s use of Distribution Wood Poles changed with time. This graph supports a growing number of pole and WPM related issues. Based on poles lasting 74 years before they will be replaced on a planned basis, Avista would need to replace 3,200 poles per year at equilibrium. We finally reached and exceeded 3,200 poles per year in 2012, but failed to reach 3,200 poles in 2013. Figure 11 shows how an increasing number of poles are reaching 74 years. As shown in Table 8, we are using more material in WPM and the Electric Distribution Minor Blankets to address our aging and failing equipment. We expect this trend to continue for another 10 years before it stabilizes based on a model developed in 2012. WPM Model Performance The AM model for WPM provided a baseline for estimating the future costs of the follow-up work, but it under predicted the number of components for Lightning Arresters and Wildlife Guards (see Figure 12). For our WPM, Lightning Arresters and Wildlife Guards are minor components compared to poles, Crossarms, and Transformers, so when you ignore these two items, the model performed within the 30% margin. Currently, we don’t plan on updating the model until we have a few more years of data since this model was completed in 2012. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 25 of 73 WPM Summary The main message from the KPI and metrics for WPM is that we are moving in the right direction, but we are falling behind and will need to complete work on more feeder miles to control the impact on future reliability. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 26 of 73 Figure 8, WPM OMT Event Trends Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 27 of 73 Figure 9, WPM Contribution to Annual SAIFI value by Sub-Reason and Year Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 28 of 73 Figure 10, Wood Pole Used by Summarized Activity Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 29 of 73 Figure 11, Distribution Wood Pole Age Profile 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Pe r c e n t a g e o f P o l e P o p u l a t i o n Year Installed Wood Pole Age Profile Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 30 of 73 Figure 12, WPM Model Projections vs Actual Usage for 2013 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 31 of 73 Wildlife Guards Wildlife caused outages have a significant impact on electric service reliability to customers. The improved outage tracking implemented in 2001 has consistently shown, within a percent or two either way, that animal’s cause 19% of outages experienced by electric customers. While generally short in duration, labor impacts to respond are significant. In 2010, Squirrels accounted for only 6% of all sustained outages (see Table 9) which is a significant drop from 2009 value of 12%. This trend downward has continued so in 2013 only 2% of sustained outages were caused by Squirrels. Selected KPIs and Metrics The goal of the Wildlife Guards program is to reduce the number of Animal caused outages on the distribution system. More specifically, the program targets reducing the number of squirrel caused outages. The plan estimates that installing guards on the worst 60 feeders will reduce the number of Squirrel caused outages by 50%. 2006 was selected as the starting point, because the work performed that year was not influenced by the current AM plan as seen in Figure 13. The final goal was a 50% reduction from the 2006 value of 902; however, this year’s value of 215 already exceeds the final goal and has for the past four years. The second KPI is the number of Distribution Feeders completed for the Wildlife Guard Installation program. This KPI measures how effective we were at following the plan. The annual goal for the five year program was 12 feeders a year but was modified each of the previous years based on available budget. WPM is also installing wildlife guards as well and is on top of the number included here. The WPM program does address some of these worst 60 feeders, but is not driven by this program. WPM’s role in Wildlife Guards is to install them on the remainder of the Distribution system over the next 15 years on transformers or poles they work on for other reasons. Since the number of feeders completed has nearly reached 60 feeders, Avista will drop this KPI in the near future. The third KPI used is the percentage of sustained outages caused by Squirrels. This KPI provides a relative impact that squirrel related outages are having on the system and represents the future value of installing Wildlife Guards on Distribution Transformers. The only metric for Wildlife Guards is the annual avoided outage benefit from Squirrel related outages. We estimate approximately $82 in benefit for every outage avoided starting in 2011. Using this benefit per event, the projected avoided outage benefit by year is the difference between the projected number of events and the actual number of events for that year multiplied by the calculated cost per event for that year (approximately $83). The goals by year for the next two years are shown in Table 10. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 32 of 73 Table 9, Wildlife KPI Goals for 2010 - 2015 KPI Description Number of Squirrel Number of Squirrel OMT of Feeders Completed via of Feeders Completed via sustained outages caused 2009 810 700 12 17 12.2% 2010 720 390 4 23 5.62% 2011 630 395 12 7 3.11% Table 10, Wildlife Metric Goals for 2010 - 2015 Metric Description Projected Avoided Outage Benefit due to Squirrel Caused Outages Actual Avoided Outage Benefit due to Squirrel Caused Outages 2009 $36,000 $47,190 *Note: Avoided costs were revised from $390 per event to $82 for 2011 and 2012 values. This change was based on a review of costs. WILDLIFE GUARDS KPI Performance Installing Wildlife Guards has exceeded expectations so far and has decreased the number of OMT events for Squirrels. The original model estimated costs were higher than actual costs because the model assumed more guards would be needed. So, the saved money has been used to work on more feeders than originally anticipated. Based on Figure 13 and Figure 14, Wildlife Guard installations made a big jump driven largely by work in Moscow to install the guards on the worst feeders in Avista’s system for squirrel related outages in 2007. This work had an immediate impact on the number of events in 2008 and 2009. In 2010, the program was funded along with WPM work to install 1017 wildlife guards. WILDLIFE GUARDS Metric Performance The main purpose of the Avoided costs metric shown in Table 10 is to demonstrate the savings associated with the work from the original model. In 2010, Avista saw savings nearly triple the projected amount. Other work such as Electric Distribution Minor Blanket and WPM continue to install Wildlife Guards on Distribution Transformers. However, the large increase in savings is most likely due to the increase in the number of feeders completed in 2010. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 33 of 73 WILDLIFE GUARDS Model Performance The Wildlife Guard model over estimated the impact of the work performed (see Table 9), so our performance has exceeded our expectations. This exceeds the goal of being within +/- 30% of the actual value. However, since the program has accomplished its purpose, no further work is planned. WILDLIFE GUARDS Summary The Wildlife Guard program shows real cost savings over time. The work in WPM and other efforts to install wildlife guards on Distribution Transformers will create even more savings into the future. However, continuing a Wildlife Guard installation program is no longer justified. Examining Table 11 shows the current top 10 worst feeders represent 159 outages but only provides an opportunity to save ~$3,500 annually (159 outages * 80% effectiveness * $82/3 years ≈ $3,500 annually). At a cost of ~$360,000 to install Wildlife Guards on ten feeders, we estimate the time to payback the cost of installation at 100 years. Continuing the program as a separate program no longer justifies future costs except in localized areas which are identified as having a high concentration of squirrel caused outages. Table 11, Worst Feeders for Squirrel related Events for 2010 - 2012 Feeder Sustained Outages Momentary Outages Combined Outages of all Squirrel related Running Percentage 19 0 19 1.79% 1.79% 18 0 18 1.70% 3.49% 17 1 18 1.70% 5.18% 17 0 17 1.60% 6.79% 15 1 16 1.51% 8.29% 16 0 16 1.51% 9.80% 14 1 15 1.41% 11.22% 14 0 14 1.32% 12.54% 13 0 13 1.23% 13.76% 13 0 13 1.23% 14.99% Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 34 of 73 Figure 13, Wildlife Guards Installed by Year and Expenditure Request Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 35 of 73 Figure 14, Wildlife Guards Usage by MAC for 2009-2013 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 36 of 73 URD Primary Cable URD Primary Cable replacement addresses aging underground primary distribution cable, commonly referred to as URD (Underground Residential District). URD installation began in 1971. Over 6,000,000 feet of URD was installed before 1982. Outage problems exist on cable installed before 1982, cable installed after 1982 has not shown the high failure rate of the pre-1982 cable. Programmed replacement of the problem cable has been on-going at varying levels of funding since 1984. Emphasis is on the original vintage of URD. That cable was not jacketed with a protective layer of insulating material, neutral conductor was bare tinned copper concentric type construction on the outside of the cable. Insulating material was vulnerable to water intrusion. Based on the historical data, we estimated that approximately 72,000 feet of the pre-1982 cable remains in service as of January, 2013. Historically, over 200 faults of primary cable happen annually. There have been as many as 264 primary cable faults in 2003. During 2007 there were 168 primary faults. From 1992 faults increased from 2 per 10 miles of cable to 8 per 10 miles in 2005. The number of faults per mile has stabilized between 2005 – 2007 after steadily climbing between 1992 and 2005. Funding for URD Primary Cable replacement was significantly increased in 2007 and began the current program. The program had an original estimate of 5 years to complete but the funding has not matched the original plan, but almost all of the work was accomplished over six years. The year 2012 represents the last year of major funding for the program since the number of outages has significantly dropped and the worst feeder for URD Cable – Pri failures only had two outages. We anticipate some low level of funding for the remaining cable sections as they fail. Selected KPIs and Metrics We selected two KPIs to track for URD Primary Cable replacement, URD Primary OMT Events and number of feet replaced each year. The goals for each of these KPIs came from the trends observed over the past few years and set a goal to complete the replacement of URD Primary cable in 2012. The program continued into 2013 with a smaller budget of $800,000 to help complete the replacement of all the first generation URD. Table 12 shows the goals for each KPI by year. The OMT events reflect the impact to our system of past work. The number of feet of URD Primary Cable replaced acts as a precursor to future OMT performance. After the first generation of URD Primary Cable has been replaced, the second generation will need to be monitored and plan established for addressing this vintage of cable. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 37 of 73 Table 12, URD Cable - Pri KPI Goals KPI Description Projected URD Cable - Primary OMT Events Actual URD Cable - Primary OMT Events Projected Number of Feet Replaced Actual Number of Feet Replaced 2009 143 136 178000 213,000 2011 94 95 178000 225,823 The selected metric for URD Primary Cable is the avoided costs due to cable faults. The benefits are based on a projected number of failures without the program of around 600 events per year. Each event on average costs ~$2,680 due to the duration of the outage and the number of people involved in correcting the fault. While this indicator is based on a projection, it provides a reasonable estimate of the return on investment for the money spent to replace this vintage of cable. Table 13 projects the anticipated avoided outage benefit by year for the estimated number of avoided outages. Table 13, URD Cable - Pri Metric Goals Metric Description Projected Avoided Outage Benefit due to URD Cable - Pri Caused Outages Actual Avoided Outage Benefit due to URD Cable - Pri Outages 2009 $1,038,613 $1,056,113 2010 $1,228,275 $1,295,225 2011 $1,368,561 $1,352,648 2012 $1,516,159 $1,481,504 2013 $1,744,539 $1,494,738 2015 $1,997,052 URD PRIMARY CABLE KPI Performance For 2012, the performance for URD Primary Cable met expectations and performed well. Table 12 shows that URD Cable – Pri events exceeded expectations. Figure 15 shows a declining trend in the number of events for the previous four years. Unfortunately, 2013 saw an increase in URD Primary related OMT events. If this trend continues more analysis will need to be done. The second generation of URD Primary Cable is also being analyzed. If it begins failing at an increasing rate, it would signal the next round of cable replacements. We do have some faults in newer cables and anticipate that this will Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 38 of 73 be true for several years to come. If these faults begin to significantly increase over time, we will have to begin replacement of this cable since the earliest of the second generation cable is now approaching 30 years old. Figure 15, URD Primary Cable OMT Events by Year URD PRIMARY CABLE Metric Performance The projected savings and estimated savings due to avoided outage costs for Avista has typically come in very close as seen in Table 13. The avoided outage cost for this last year did not perform as well as year past but overall the current program is performing as expected. URD PRIMARY CABLE Model Performance This AM model is an early vintage model and given the cash flow, did not match the model; but it has generally predicted performance reasonably well. Because of the good performance and limited remaining time for the program, the model will be retained as is and the program allowed to expire once all of the first generation URD Primary Cable has been replaced. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 39 of 73 URD PRIMARY CABLE Summary Several people have worked hard on this program and it is now nearing completion. We anticipate another round of URD Cable replacements in the future, but we don’t have any evidence indicating that we have reached the end of life on the second generation of URD Cable. The program has succeeded in reducing O&M costs by avoiding long and costly outages. Since all of the work to replace the cable comes from capital spending, the program is a great example of how capital spending can reduce O&M. However, operations continue to find more cable than estimated remaining, so future funding is recommended to only cover planned work on known cable. URD Secondary Cable URD Secondary Cable does not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Open Wire Secondary Open Wire Secondary does not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. While this area covers secondary conductors and connections, OMT does not provide any direct link to Open Wire Secondary. Previous analysis indicated that this program was not financially justified. However, future indication may drive us to re-evaluate the situation. We do anticipate that the Distribution Grid Modernization Program will address many of the Open Wire Secondary OMT issues. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Distribution Cutouts Distribution Cutouts are addressed by the WPM program discussed above. Distribution Air Switches Distribution Air Switches do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Distribution Mid-Line Reclosers For the Mid-Line Reclosers, no maintenance or planned replacement is recommended over the next 10 years. Feeder Reclosers are not easily accessible as they are in a substation, so any maintenance on them is equivalent to a planned replacement. Our analysis indicates that any planned replacement program is not cost effective for our customers. Further analysis will be performed to ensure this is the Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 40 of 73 correct approach, but until more information is available, no change in our current approach is recommended. The Smart Grid work has replaced and installed new Mid-Line Reclosers and switches that now provide monitoring and remote operations. We have plans to analyze these new devices to determine a maintenance and replacement strategy specifically for Smart Grid devices. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Distribution Mid-Line Voltage Regulators Avista’s distribution system includes 1,171 Voltage Regulators located in substations and out on the distribution feeders. The age profile has a large portion of regulators around 30 years old with ~38% of all voltage regulators being over 30 years old but only 1% greater than 40 years old. When regulators fail, they will cause an outage 81% of the time and add 0.005 to the overall SAIFI value per event. The average outage duration for regulator failures is 2.7 hours. On average, 30 to 40 regulators per year come to the shops for repair, refurbishment, or replacement for a variety of reasons. Some come in because of failures, but many are brought in because of changes and other work to be refurbished and re-used. On older voltage regulators, we have also seen that they have higher losses. By replacing them, Avista could save an estimated $138,000 in energy savings. AM analyzed four cases in detail in 2010 to find the best program for managing the voltage regulators. We examined the current case, replacing all the regulators with new regulators at a specific interval, refurbishing/rebuilding all regulators, and finally replacing the older regulators and refurbishing the newer regulators. The analysis identified a program that replaces the oldest regulators and refurbishing the new ones as the best approach to manage the regulators. The replace/rebuild program provides an 8.37% IRR compared to a 5.00% IRR for the base case. The plan will replace an average of 50 Voltage Regulators per year in the near term, with the newer Voltage Regulators being refurbished when they reach 35 years old or come in from the field. Due to a lack of craft resources, this program has not been implemented and remains in a monitoring state. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine if and when the plan will be implemented or modified. Primary Conductors Primary Conductors do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 41 of 73 Primary Connections Primary Connections do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Secondary Conductors Secondary Conductors do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Secondary Connectors Secondary Connectors do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Distribution Transformers In 2011, Avista implemented the Transformer Change Out Program (TCOP) to replace all Distribution Transformers containing PCB’s followed by replacing all pre-1981 transformers. The driver for the program is to reduce the environmental risks associated with PCB’s in transformers and improve the overall electric distribution system by eliminating higher loss transformers. The program has two strategies associated with it. The first strategy is to eliminate all transformers containing or potentially containing PCB’s. The initial focus was on areas near water sources and has now moved to all transformers containing PCB’s as the water regions are done. These transformers have specific work plans for removing them from the system. The second strategy uses the Wood Pole Management program to remove all pre-1981 transformers as part of their follow-up work on a feeder. The first strategy work should be completed in 2016 and the Wood Pole Management work should have all the pre-1981 transformers replaced by 2036. Selected Metrics Table 14 shows the metrics selected for TCOP. The number of transformers changed out represents the reduction of future risk from PCB’s. It also provides a leading indicator of how many future transformer failures we may experience. The energy savings represents the value of changing out the less efficient transformers and quantifies the approximate amount of energy saved each year by replacing less efficient transformers with more efficient ones. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 42 of 73 Table 14, TCOP Metrics Year Number of Transformers Actual Number of Transformers Changed Out Savings from Transformers Savings from Transformers 2,687 2,529 2,304 2,430 2,555 2,599 2,304 2,671 2,930 2,304 305 2,030 1,447 2,335 • Note: values in red have negatively missed the goal. Metric Performance In 2013, we changed out more transformers than planned and exceeded our planned energy savings. TCOP is providing the anticipated benefit. Summary The TCOP is accomplishing it objectives and reducing Avista’s and customer’s risks associated with Distribution transformers containing PCB’s and providing energy savings. Area and Street Lights Asset Management converted the existing area and street light data into our Geographical Information System (GIS) in 2012 and will continue the work through 2014. This work will update and correct the existing information and provide a platform to convert our High Pressure Sodium (HPS) lights to Light Emitting Diode (LED) fixtures in the future. The recent cost and reliability improvements in LED lights have made converting lights to LED fixtures cost effective. We anticipate replacing the 100 watt HPS street lights to LED fixtures starting in 2015. The rate schedule was recently approved for the state of Washington. Until a conversion program is implemented, no KPI’s or metrics have been established to monitor area or street lights. Riser Terminations Riser Terminations do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Dead End Insulators Dead end Insulators do not have a planned AM program outside of work identified as part of Wood Pole Management, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. The general metrics discussed above Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 43 of 73 for number of OMT Events (Table 1) and the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plan will be developed or if action is needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. Distribution Capacitors Distribution Capacitors do not have a planned AM program, so no specific metrics or KPIs have been identified. Smart Grid work has added switch capacitors to our system but our initial analysis did not indicate any maintenance or replacement strategy was justified. The general metrics discussed above for number of OMT Events (Table 1) along with the associated action level; Risk Action Curve limits; and requests by responsible parties will determine in the future if a plans are needed. In summary, this asset will be monitored to determine if and when planned actions are needed. 9CE12F4 Partial Feeder Rebuild This program was created to integrate several AM programs into a comprehensive program to address feeder’s issues at one time and then not have to return to the feeder for several years. This program combined WPM, re-conductoring, transformer replacement and reconfiguration, Wildlife Guards, Vegetation Management, and other work that fit. While the project created a list of feeders along with a priority ranking, the only work funded was on Ninth and Central Substation feeder 12F4 in Spokane. The main drivers for the project were energy savings efficiency for the redesign portion of the work and integrated AM work to gain labor efficiency. In 2011, Avista implemented a Feeder Upgrade Program based on this work that will be discussed below. We retained this program here to provide a place to document the results of the work competed in 2009. Selected KPIs and Metrics Since the program was a one year project, the only metric selected is the number of OMT events associated with the feeder. No KPI was selected since there are no further actions planned or anticipated on this feeder. We did not develop an OMT performance metric when the model was created, but we will monitor the OMT results to see how the work impacted the feeder’s reliability. Avista’s crews completed the work on the feeder at the end of 2009 along with the WPM inspection and Vegetation Management work. Partial Feeder Rebuild KPI Performance No KPI’s were selected nor tracked for this program. Partial Feeder Rebuild Metric Performance Since the work on Feeder 9CE12F4 was completed in 2009, we monitor the OMT data for the feeder to see how reliability is impacted. Figure 16 shows the trends and shows that the work has made a significant impact on the feeder’s performance driving the number of OMT events to their lowest levels in recent records. Along with Figure 16, Figure 17 provides a baseline and trends on specific measures we anticipated the work would impact. Based on the available OMT data for 2013, the work did impact Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 44 of 73 performance but the real benefit took three years to realize. While weather does impact these numbers, the impact on equipment failures is clearly improved. Figure 16, All OMT Sub-Reasons except Maint/Upgrade for Feeder 9CE12F4 2002-2013 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 45 of 73 Figure 17, Selected OMT Trends for AM Related Events with Upward Trends for Feeder 9CE12F4 Partial Feeder Rebuild Model Performance The model did include some projections for future performance, but we have selected not to evaluate this model. The actual work performed exceeded the scope of the model, since it included Open Wire Secondary work. The AM model had predicted a work cost of $1.1 million excluding the following: WPM inspection costs, Vegetation Management, and Open Wire Secondary work. The total cost of modeled portion of the project came in at $1.1 million and an additional $1 million of work was added on top of this. In future models, all of the work will need to factor the lessons learned into the model to improve costs projections. Partial Feeder Rebuild Summary The 9CE12F4 feeder performed very well in 2013, but we anticipate 2014 and 2015 will see more Vegetation Management issues as the feeder approaches its five year cycle for Vegetation Management work. Based on previous work on Vegetation Management models, the first year after clearing a feeder results in some early growth vegetation issues. When a line is cleared, some of the remaining vegetation is weaker because it no longer has the other branches or vegetation that provided additional support. This results in some vegetation issues the first year after clearing when the weaker structures fail under windy or other loading conditions. Usually years 2 and3 between clearings have the lowest number of vegetation issues and then years 4-5 see a buildup of issues as the next clearing approaches. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 46 of 73 This will be the last year we report out on this project as it will be included in the Grid Modernization data going forward. Chance Cutouts This program focused on replacing a particular brand of cutout showing signs of premature failure. The bulk of the work was completed in 2007 and 2008. However, some outlying areas did not participate as planned with some remaining into 2012. The program and associated funding was spent on replacing several cutouts in the system and did replace the anticipated number of cutouts. However, an initial assumption of how many cutouts remain was too low, so the actual number in the field was higher. The work of WPM and other types of work has effectively eliminated the remaining Chance cutouts. The future cutout failures will come from all the non-Chance cutouts and should normalize around 150 events per year. Selected KPIs and Metrics The goal of the Chance Cutouts was to save money. The KPI selected is the annual projected avoided outage benefit shown in Table 15. The estimated benefits are quite substantial and anticipated making a large impact on cutting the number of failures. The only action that can be taken in the future is through the WPM program, so the KPI and Metrics will be lagging indicators. The selected metric is the number of OMT events. While normally OMT events are the KPI, it was selected as the metric since the project was funded with Productivity money and is reported quarterly as an estimate of the cost savings. Table 15 shows the goals for the number of OMT events under the “Projected OMT Events w/ Action” column. Table 15, Chance Cutout Replacement KPI and Metric Goals Year Projected OMT Events w/o Action Projected OMT Events w/ Action Projected Annual Avoided Outage Benefit 380 91 $654,000 430 78 $671,000 480 106 $665,000 510 80 $640,000 550 152 $579,000 560 152 $524,000 560 152 $524,000 Chance Cutouts KPI and Metric Performance Although, the number of outages negatively exceeded our goal the annual avoided outage benefit met the projected benefit. The avoided outage costs were recently updated to current values which explains how one KPI/metric can be met while the other is not. Two factors appear to be contributing to the lower than expected results. While the Chance cutouts did remain in the system, a larger portion of the failures came from all the other cutouts than anticipated. The model appears not to have accurately Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 47 of 73 predicted the number of failures due to other types of cutouts in the early phases of the work. However, we appear on track to achieve 150 failures a year based on WPM work and Feeder Upgrade work addressing other issues with cutouts. Table 16, Chance Cutout KPI and Metric Performance Year Projected OMT Events w/o Action Projected OMT Events w/ Action Actual Number of OMT Events Annual Avoided Outage Annual Avoided Outage Model Error 380 91 197 $654,000 $ 366,000 216% 430 78 217 $671,000 $ 438,780 278% 480 106 176 $665,000 $577,600 166% 510 80 209 $640,000 $583,338 261% 550 152 171 $579,000 $749,192 113% 560 152 $524,000 570 152 $524,000 • Note: values in red have negatively exceeded the goal. Figure 18, Cutout/Fuse OMT Event Comparison between Actual, Projected without Action, and Projected with Action Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 48 of 73 Chance Cutouts Model Performance The model performance for Chance Cutouts provided a good indication of the trends but failed to accurately predict the trends. The model for future cutout analysis will need to be updated and improved to better predict future trends. The method of completing the work also caused the actual values to deviate from the model. The differences in actual work compared to projected mainly comes from the number of Chance Cutouts remaining in the system was more than anticipated as an assumption. Another contributing factor comes from the worse than expected performance of other cutouts. The model, however, for Chance Cutouts will not be changed since the bulk of the work is complete and any remaining work is to be picked up by WPM. Chance Cutouts Summary In summary, the Chance Cutout replacement program has succeeded in reducing the number of failures due to this type of cutout. While it has not created the savings originally hoped for, the program continues to save Avista a significant amount of money each year. Distribution Vegetation Management (VM) Our Vegetation Management program maintains the distribution system clear of trees and other vegetation. This reduces outages caused by trees and to a lesser extent squirrel caused outages. Our Distribution System runs for 7,793 circuit miles in Washington, Idaho, and Montana. The Vegetation Management program does cover work on the Transmission System and the High Pressure Gas Pipeline system, the purpose here is to only look at the Distribution System. For the Distribution System, our analysis has shown that a pro-active maintenance program provides the best value to our customers. While our past practices were a four and seven year cycle based on vegetation type and had a reduced clearing diameter, our analysis has indicated a five year clearing cycle at a normal clearing distance has advantages. The purpose of Vegetation Management is to meet regulatory compliance, provide the best value to our customers, and maintain current reliability. The Vegetation Management program continues herbicide spraying and enlarged the risk tree programs to further improve vegetation management. Both of these additions strive to improve the performance of the system by reducing vegetation related events. Selected KPIs and Metrics For Vegetation Management (VM), we selected one leading KPI and a lagging KPI. The leading KPI is the number of Distribution Feeders miles managed each year. This indicates how well the actual work matches the planned work and the model. The results of the work in VM should directly impact the number of Tree Growth and Tree Fell events in OMT which is the lagging KPI. The number of Tree Growth events and Tree Fell events are summed for each year and compared to the AM models predictions if the plan is followed. The goals for each KPI by year are shown in Table 17. The AM model for Tree Growth events and Tree Fell events shows varying KPI’s for each year due to the strict following of the 5 year cycle based on when the feeder was last done. For a VM metric, we selected the number of Tree-Weather OMT events by year and SAIFI impacts. As seen in Figure 19, there is a relationship Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 49 of 73 between weather events and VM. We assume that improvements in VM results should impact the number of Tree-Weather OMT events and set a goal shown in Table 18. The goal for Tree-Weather events is based on the AM models average value over a 10 year period. This metric was not included as a KPI, because weather events are very unpredictable and random in nature. Once the relationship has been better established, it may become a KPI. Another metric selected for monitoring is the cost per mile for VM on the distribution feeders. While no goals have been established, this will measure how effective our AM spending gets the work done and how much work is required to clear the lines. The costs per mile should drop in future years, because the amount of work required to clear them should drop after reaching a 5 year cycle. Inflation and other escalators will drive costs up in the future to counter the reduced workload, but the net effect remains undetermined. The total number of miles of all planned work was modified in 2011. Beginning in 2011, the costs per mile calculation includes all planned work and not just the miles cleared. So, the total number of miles for all planned work was included in the metrics. Table 17, Vegetation Management KPI Goals KPI Description Miles of Vegetation Management Completed OMT Events due to Tree Fell + Tree Grow 2009 1,560 556 2010 1,560 540 2011 1,560 500 2012 1,560 520 2013 1,560 630 2014 1,560 780 2015 1,560 845 Table 18, Vegetation Management Metric Goals Metric Description OMT Events due to Tree-Weather SAIFI - Tree Fall SAIFI - Tree Grow SAIFI - Tree Weather 2009 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2010 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2011 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2012 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2013 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2014 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 2015 166 1.40E-07 8.84E-08 1.34E-05 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 50 of 73 VM KPI Performance Both Figure 19 and Figure 20 show the same trends for Tree Growth, Tree Fell, and Tree Weather. The number of OMT events due to Tree Growth and Tree Fell were below the 10 year average and above the five year cycle projections. The number of miles completed in VM will cause the number of events in the future to continue to grow and exceed projected five year cycle values. Table 19 shows the results. The number of OMT events remains above the values for 5 year cycle plan but less than the 2009 plan. We did clear enough miles in 2011 to exceed a five year cycle but slipped back to less than a five year cycle in 2012 and 2013. Until we have a well entrenched five year cycle, we will continue to realize more vegetation related events than projected by the five year cycle plan. However, we do see the number of events improving and nearly cleared enough miles in 2013 to align with a five year cycle. Table 19, VM KPI Performance Year Projected Tree Growth + Tree Fell OMT Events – 2009 Plan (Current) Projected Tree Growth + Tree Fell OMT Events – 5 Year Cycle Actual Number of OMT Events Projected Annual Miles Managed Annual Miles Managed w/o Risk Tree or Percent Model Error* 2009 1120 556 1,220 790 2010 2011 790 500 1,560 1,747 2012 1210 520 1,560 1,296 2013 1390 630 1,560 1,459 2014 • Note: values in red have negatively exceeded the goal • * This model error is for the current plan model and not the 5 year cycle model Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 51 of 73 Figure 19, OMT Events Data Trends for Tree-Weather, Tree Growth, and Tree Fell Sub-Reasons Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 52 of 73 Figure 20, OMT Outage and Partial Outage Data Trends for Tree-Weather, Tree Growth, and Tree Fell Sub-Reasons VM Metric Performance The Tree-Weather OMT Events for 2013 continued to show improvement and were below the AM model projects (see Table 20). We must update the Vegetation Management models before we have better projections. The cost per mile for VM in 2013 was $1,657. We need to update the Vegetation Management model to address changes in the program which will help understand the impact to our system. Table 21 shows the current information. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 53 of 73 Table 20, Tree-Weather OMT Events Metric for Vegetation Management Year Projected Tree-Weather OMT Events – 2009 Plan (Current) Weather OMT Events – 5 Year Cycle Actual Number of Tree-Weather OMT Events Percent Model Error 420 166 357 85% 80 50 895 - 220 70 325 148% 580 70 314 54% 800 170 216 27% 1120 430 • Note: values in red have negatively exceeded the goal. Table 21, VM Cost per Mile and All Vegetation Management Work Metric Year Actual Annual Miles Managed all work Cost per Mile of VM N/A $6,575 N/A $2,990 3,455 $2,612 3,364 $3,272 4,014 $1,657 VM Model Performance The AM model for Distribution VM was revised in 2010, but the recent changes to the work performed and errors experienced justify updating the model. We anticipate completing the update in 2015. VM Summary Depending on how you evaluate the program, VM is currently not getting enough miles completed each year to achieve the goal of a 5 year cycle. The costs per mile may be too high and/or the current funding levels are too low and the impacts of herbicide spraying and enhanced risk tree work modify the meaning of work per mile. Vegetation Management’s performance does show continued improvement but further analysis will provide an opportunity to re-evaluate our current performance and update future expectations. Distribution Grid Modernization Program Avista initiated a Grid Modernization Program designed to reduce energy losses, improve operation, and increase the long-term reliability of its overhead and underground electric distribution system. The program includes replacing poles, transformers (Pad Mount, OH & Submersible), cross arms, arresters, Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 54 of 73 air switches, grounds, cutouts, riser wire, insulators, conduit and conductors in order to address concerns related to age, capacity, high electrical resistance, strength, and mechanical ability. The program also includes the addition of wildlife guards, smart grid devices, switched capacitor banks, balancing feeders, removing unauthorized attachments, replacing open wire secondary, and reconfigurations. When funded to a level that allows 5-6 feeders to be upgraded per year, the continuous program represents a 60 year interval to upgrade all the feeders in Avista’s system and coordinates all of its activities with Avista’s Wood Pole Management. The objectives of the Grid Modernization Program are listed in Table 22. Table 22, Grid Modernization Program Objectives Objective Objective Description Safety Focus on public and employee safety through smart design and work practices Reliability Replace aging and failed infrastructure that has a high likelihood of creating a need for unplanned crew call-outs Avoided Costs Replace equipment that has high energy losses with new equipment that is more energy efficient and improve the overall feeder performance Operational Ability Replace conductor and equipment that hinders outage detection and install automation devices that enable isolation of outages Capital Offset Avoid future equipment O&M costs with programmatic rebuild of failing system Selected Metrics Since the program originally began as a Feeder Upgrade Program and has since grown in scope to be a Grid Modernization Program; the selected KPI’s may not be valid anymore. The metrics selected include miles of work completed, OMT sustained outages on feeders with Feeder Upgrade work completed, and energy savings provided by completed work. Based on Avista’s 2013 Integrated Resource Plan dated August 31st, 2013, Table 5.3 and Table 5.4, the realized and anticipated energy savings by identified feeders is shown in Table 23. From Table 24, we calculated that the power saved per mile of work is 1.38 kW. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 55 of 73 Table 23, Energy Savings based on 2013 Integrated Resource Plan Feeder Energy Savings (MWH) OH Circuit Miles NE12F3 115 13.09062 RAT231 91 52.25448 OTH502 21 0.783542 M23621 151 28.388 DVP12F2 35 39.1079 HAR4F1 69 12.0028 BEA12F3 167 9.854272 FWT12F3 121 10.5042 TEN1255 249 12.27521 ROS12F1 267 18.93558 SPI12F1 162 91.80389 TUR112 101 24.33467 9CE12F4 601 17.04767 WIL12F2 1403 105.5954 BEA12F1 972 24.80689 F&C12F2 570 20.6956 BEA12F5 885 15.66515 TUR113 76 5.098 Total 6056 502.2438 KW per Mile 1.376471 The miles of work planned is ultimately driven by the approved budget and generally can only be projected for 5 years. In order to maintain a 60 year cycle, Avista would need to address an average of 137 miles per year of overhead circuit miles. This would result in an average of 188 kW of power savings each year. For tracking the impacts of the work on outages, we will monitor the following OMT sub-reasons shown in Table 25. While the Grid Modernization will affect all of the sub-reasons listed in Table 25, the sub- reasons identified as potentially avoidable represent the most direct impact of the work. So we assume that the number of OMT sustained outages will be reduced by 0.1 outages per mile of overhead work completed. Based on the data shown in Figure 21, the average number of OMT events that could potentially been avoided over the last 5 years is 773. Dividing 773 outages by the number of circuit miles yields 0.1 outages avoided per mile of work. So, the annual anticipated number of OMT sustained outages will be the average value of outages minus the number of OMT outages avoided by performing the work. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 56 of 73 Table 24, OMT Sub-Reasons impacted by Grid Modernization OMT Sub-Reason Potentially Avoidable Arrester Yes Capacitor Yes Conductor - Pri Yes Conductor - Sec Yes Connector - Pri Yes Connector - Sec Yes Cross arm - rotten Yes Cutout/Fuse Yes Elbow Yes Insulator Yes Insulator Pin Yes Lightning No Pole Fire No Pole - rotten Yes Recloser Yes Regulator Yes Snow/Ice No Switch/Disconnect Yes Transformer - OH Yes Transformer UG Yes Undetermined No Weather No Wildlife Guard Yes Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 57 of 73 Figure 21, OMT Sustained Outages related to Grid Modernization 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 2005 2010 2015 Nu m b e r o f S u s t a i n e d O u t a g e s Year OMT Sustained Outages related to Grid Modernization Number of Grid Modernization Related Sustained outages Average Std Dev - Low Potentially Avoidable Outages Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 58 of 73 Metric Performance The results of the first two years work are shown in Table 25. The year 2012 marks the beginning of the program. The number of miles actually completed missed the goal of 137 and the energy savings fell short of its goal as well. We will continue with the program as allowed by the budgets and continue to monitor the results for a few more years before considering any significant changes to the plan. Table 25, Metric Performance for Grid Modernization Program Year for Modernization Actual Miles Completed (Miles)** Power Savings Power Savings Number of Sustained Number of Sustained 95 73.33 127 150 2340 2331 137 53.83 188 150 2327 2665 137 188 2313 137 188 2300 137 188 2286 137 188 2272 *Note: The planned or anticipated values may be modified to match approved work plans for each year that more accurately align with the actual work planned. **Data from Grid Modernization Group Summary The Grid Modernization Program began in earnest in 2012 and represents feeder replacement work and upgrades founded on smart grid work. We need to examine a few more years’ worth of data before drawing any conclusions. Conclusion In this report, we documented and examined the KPIs and metrics AM selected for the Distribution system and provided the results for 2013. Some of the metrics compared how an asset performed with a program and how it would have performed without a program. The difference in performance provide an estimate of the cost saving and value of an AM program. While the exact savings are impossible to calculate in most cases, it provides a relative comparison and supporting justification or motivation for change in AM decisions made in the past. Other KPIs and metrics provided indications of how well an asset performed and help determined if further work is required. Some AM models clearly need more work to better predict future conditions and will be scheduled in the future if it makes sense. Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 59 of 73 Distribution Vegetation Management 2013 Washington RIT732 WAK12F1 NW13T23 DRY1208 DRY1209 GAR461 HAR4F1 HAR4F2 KET12F1 SPU125 SPU124 SPU123 SPU122 MIL12F1 SPA442 CLV34F1 RIT731 RDN12F2 RDN12F1 PAL312 MIL12F2 MIL12F3 MIL12F4 PAL311 NW12F1 NW12F2 NW12F3 NW12F4 SPU121 WAK12F3 3HT12F2 3HT12F3 3HT12F4 3HT12F5 3HT12F6 3HT12F7 3HT12F8 9CE12F1 9CE12F2 9CE12F3 9CE12F4 ARD12F1 WAK12F4 CLV12F4 C&W12F3 CLV12F3 CLV12F2 CLV12F1 C&W12F6 C&W12F5 3HT12F1 C&W12F4 BKR12F1 C&W12F2 C&W12F1 WAK12F2 BKR12F3 Idaho STM631 OSB522 STM633 STM632 BLU321 BIG411 M23621 BIG413 NMO522 COT2401 COT2402 HUE141 HUE142 LKV341 LKV342 M15515 BIG412 LKV343 NMO521 M15514 M15513 M15512 M15511 LKY551 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 60 of 73 2014 Washington LAT421 WAS781 SUN12F1 LIN711 ORI12F1 ORI12F2 ORI12F3 LAT422 SUN12F2 SUN12F3 SUN12F4 SUN12F6 WIL12F1 WIL12F2 KET12F2 EFM12F2 SUN12F5 DIA232 DEP12F1 DEP12F2 DIA231 EFM12F1 BKR12F2 H&W12F2 H&W12F1 ARD12F2 Idaho CDA121 TEN1256 JUL661 TEN1257 TEN1254 TEN1253 CDA122 CDA123 CDA124 CDA125 TEN1255 OSB521 SPL361 BLA311 LOL1359 OLD721 OLD722 OGA611 PF211 PF212 PRV4S40 SLW1316 SLW1348 SLW1358 SLW1368 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 61 of 73 2015 Washington BEA12F1 BEA12F3 F&C12F1 BEA12F2 LL12F1 NE12F2 NE12F3 NE12F4 BEA12F4 ODS12F1 HOL1205 OPT12F1 OPT12F2 NE12F5 F&C12F2 BEA12F5 BEA12F6 BEA13T09 HOL1206 GIF34F1 FOR12F1 F&C12F6 F&C12F5 F&C12F4 F&C12F3 PDL1201 SPI12F2 HOL1207 SOT521 NE12F1 VAL12F3 VAL12F2 TKO412 SLK12F3 SPR761 PDL1202 SLK12F2 SLK12F1 SIP12F5 PDL1204 SIP12F3 SIP12F2 SIP12F1 RSA431 PDL1203 PST12F1 SIP12F4 TKO411 Idaho DER651 APW111 APW112 APW113 APW114 APW115 AVD152 CKF712 AVD151 APW116 WAL544 DER652 WAL545 N131222 WAL543 WAL542 SAG742 PF213 N131321 LOL1266 JUL662 JPE1287 IDR253 IDR252 WEI1289 IDR251 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 62 of 73 2016 Washington L&S12F3 SE12F2 SE12F1 ROX751 ROK451 MLN12F2 LOO12F2 LOO12F1 L&S12F4 L&S12F1 L&S12F2 SE12F3 L&S12F5 SE12F4 SE12F5 SOT522 SOT523 SPI12F1 L&R511 TUR115 TUR111 TUR116 TUR117 TVW131 TVW132 VAL12F1 TUR112 CHE12F2 TUR113 AIR12F1 AIR12F2 AIR12F3 CFD1210 CFD1211 CHE12F1 CHE12F3 CHE12F4 CLA56 EWN241 FOR2.3 GIF34F2 INT12F2 INT12F1 Idaho SPT4S21 KOO1298 CGC331 RAT231 KAM1292 KAM1291 KAM1293 KOO1299 SPT4S30 SPT4S22 DAL131 RAT233 SAG741 DAL134 SPT4S23 DAL132 GRV1274 GRV1271 CKF711 GRV1272 GRV1273 DAL133 Montana NRC352 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 63 of 73 2017 Washington LIB12F4 LIB12F2 LIB12F3 LIB12F1 LF34F1 LEO612 LEO611 MEA12F1 GRN12F3 L&R512 MEA12F2 MLN12F1 OTH501 OTH502 OTH503 OTH505 ROS12F1 ROS12F2 ROS12F3 ROS12F4 ROS12F6 GRN12F2 DVP12F1 ROS12F5 COB12F1 CHW12F1 CHW12F2 ECL221 CHW12F4 GRN12F1 COB12F2 DVP12F2 GLN12F2 CHW12F3 ECL222 FWT12F1 GLN12F1 FWT12F4 FWT12F3 FWT12F2 Idaho PRA222 PVW241 PRA221 BUN426 PIN441 BUN424 BUN423 BUN422 WOR471 SWT2403 WIK1278 WIK1279 PVW243 POT322 POT321 PIN442 ORO1282 ORO1281 ORO1280 ODN732 ODN731 NEZ1267 MIS431 CRG1260 CRG1261 CRG1263 PIN443 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 64 of 73 Distribution Wood Pole Management WA 2013 Office Feeder SPO 3HT 12F1 4.56 237 SPO 3HT 12F3 3.22 167 SPO 3HT 12F5 7.67 399 SPO 3HT 12F6 3.2 166 SPO 3HT 12F7 4.67 243 SPO 3HT 12F8 1.07 56 PCB TR's SPO C&W 12F2 7.4 444 SPO C&W 12F3 7.16 430 SPO C&W 12F4 5.65 339 SPO C&W 12F5 8.94 536 SPO C&W 12F6 12.9 774 SPO NW 12F1 16.29 977 SPO NW 12F2 11.8 708 SPO NW 12F3 13.52 811 SPO NW13T23 0.94 56 COL SPI12F1 90.32 1626 COL GIF 34F1-SEC.3 58 1034 OTH WAS 781 34.68 506 9,510 ID PCB TR's CDA APW112 13.09 759 CDA LKV341 0.8 44 CDA LKV342 2.6 59 CDA LKV343 9.14 188 PAL M23621 28.33 659 SDPT SAG741 52.21 1,566 3,275 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 65 of 73 2014 WA Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles SPO NW12F3 13.52 811 SPO WAK12F2 13.21 766 SPO NW12F4 14.45 874 COL GIF 34F1-SEC 4 58 1,034 SPO AIR12F3 7.6 228 SPO L&S12F1 3.25 195 SPO L&S12F2 18.62 1,117 SPO L&S12F3 3.22 193 PAL GAR461 46.81 1,239 SPO L&S12F4 6.24 374 SPO L&S12F5 5.48 329 7,160 ID Office Feeder CDA APW113 8.04 466 CDA APW111 11.67 537 CDA RAT233 58 1,830 LEW LOL1266 31.07 932 LEW LOL1359 27.43 823 SDPT SAG741 52.17 1,566 SDPT SAG742 29.4 882 7,036 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 66 of 73 2015 WA Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles OTH SOT522 36.1 738 DPK MLN12F1 44.3 1,329 DPK MLN12F2 38.67 1,154 DPK CLA56 2 40 OTH SPR761 55.79 918 PAL TUR112 37.73 1,321 SPO NE12F1 12.5 749 SPO NE12F2 3.8 225 6,474 ID Office Feeder Est.# Poles LEW N131222 19.21 672 CDA IDR252 10.34 414 LEW LOL1359 27.43 823 LEW ORO1280 9.51 396 CDA APW115 1.48 68 CDA APW114 1.9 108 SDPT SDPT4S23 20.88 835 3,316 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 67 of 73 2016 WA Office Feeder Est.# Poles SPO NE12F4 18.1 861 SPO H&W12F2 66.86 2,006 SPO H&W12F1 0.24 7 SPO CHE12F1 16.3 650 SPO CHE12F2 13.3 531 SPO CHE12F4 17.5 699 PAL ROK451 21.6 757 SPO SE12F3 7.8 374 OTH OTH501 9.4 330 OTH OTH503 0.3 6 OTH OTH505 0.7 26 SPO F&C12F3 9.6 411 6,658 ID Office Feeder Est.# Poles CDA APW116 7.37 353 CDA IDR251 7.1 285 SDPT SPT4S22 11.2 449 SDPT SPT4S30 17.3 694 PAL JUL661 15.0 335 PAL JUL662 25.9 510 LEW JPE1287 19.6 490 KEL PIN441 19.3 545 CDA PVW243 1.8 81 3,742 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 68 of 73 2017 WA Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles SPO F&C12F4 20.4 875 SPO F&C12F6 12.8 552 SPO F&C12F1 21.5 924 COL CHW12F1 0.5 13 COL CHW12F4 61.9 2,228 SPO LIB12F2 38.6 1,352 SPO LIB12F4 2.1 74 PAL TUR116 27.1 948 6,966 ID Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 69 of 73 2018 WA Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles SPO GLN12F1 22.1 884 SPO 9CE12F1 12.6 518 SPO 9CE12F2 16.5 674 SPO 9CE12F3 9.8 403 SPO BEA12F2 21.2 955 SPO BEA12F4 6.8 304 SPO BEA12F6 10.5 474 SPO BEA13T09 1.2 52 DAV FOR12F1 70.9 1,488 DAV FOR2.3 0.2 5 PAL LEO612 21.6 832 SPO ROS12F2 6.6 404 6,993 ID Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 70 of 73 2019 WA Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles SPO ROS12F1 18.44 1,125 SPO ROS12F3 11.3 698 SPO ROS12F4 5.6 341 SPO ROS12F5 12.6 769 SPO ROS12F6 14.5 883 SPO FWT12F2 12.0 721 SPO FWT12F4 15.0 900 SPO INT12F1 1.4 49 SPO INT12F2 24.9 871 SPO WAK12F1 15.6 933 SPO WAK12F3 7.0 422 SPO WAK12F4 13.3 798 SPO OPT12F1 7.0 418 SPO OPT12F2 2.4 146 9,074 ID Office Feeder OHM Est.# Poles Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 71 of 73 Grid Modernization 2015 Grid Modernization Plan Feeder Design Constr State Region Area BEA12F1 x WA West Spokane M23621 x x ID South Pullman/Mosc MIL12F2 x WA West Spokane ORO1280 x ID South Grangeville OTH502 x WA West Othello RAT231 x ID East Coeur d'Alene RAT233 x ID East Coeur d'Alene SPI12F1 x x WA West Colville SPR761 x WA West Othello TUR112 x WA South Pullman/Mosc WAK12F2 x WA West Spokane WIL12F2 x WA West Davenport ER 2570 Sandpoint Grid Mod x x ID East Sandpoint 2016 Grid Modernization Plan Feeder Design Constr State Region Area 2015 Carryover x x MIL12F2 x x WA West Spokane ORO1280 x x ID South Grangeville PDL1201 x WA South Lewiston/Clark RAT233 x x ID East Coeur d'Alene SPI12F1 x WA West Colville SPR761 x WA West Othello TUR112 x WA South Pullman/Mosc 2017 Grid Modernization Plan Feeder Design Constr State Region Area 2016 Carryover x x F&C12F1 x WA West Spokane M15514 x ID South Pullman/Mosc MIL12F2 x WA West Spokane PDL1201 x WA South Lewiston/Clark RAT233 x ID East Coeur d'Alene SPI12F1 x WA West Colville SPR761 x x WA West Othello TUR112 x WA South Pullman/Mosc Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 72 of 73 Transformer Change-Out Program Row Labels Count of STENCIL Grand Total 31,894 Staff_PR_050 Attachment E Page 73 of 73