Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout20251021Reply Comments.pdf _ ROCKY MOUNTAIN 1407 W. North Temple,Suite 330 POWER. Salt Lake City,UT 84116 A DIVISION OF PACIFICORP RECEIVED October 21, 2025 OCTOBER 21, 2025 IDAHO PUBLIC VIA ELECTRONIC FILING UTILITIES COMMISSION Commission Secretary Idaho Public Utilities Commission 11331 W Chinden Blvd Building 8 Suite 201A Boise, Idaho, 83714 RE: CASE NO. PAC-E-25-12 - IN THE MATTER OF PACIFICORP'S APPLICATION FOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE 2025 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN Dear Commission Secretary: Pursuant to Commission Order No. 36683 -Notice of Modified Procedure, issued July 22, 2025, in the above referenced matter, PacifiCorp submits reply comments to written comments filed by Commission Staff. Informal inquiries may be directed to Mark Alder, Idaho Regulatory Affairs Manager, at (801) 220-2313. Sincerely, A 9�zal',D Joelle Steward Senior Vice President, Regulation Enclosures Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email: joseph.dallas(&,pacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF PACIFICORP'S ) CASE NO. PAC-E-25-12 APPLICATION FOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ) OF THE 2025 INTEGRATED RESOURCE ) REPLY COMMENTS OF PLAN ) ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER In accordance with Rule 202.01(d) of the Rules of Procedure of the Idaho Public Utilities Commission ("Commission") and the Commission's July 22, 2025 Order No. 36683 —Notice of Modified Procedure, PacifiCorp d/b/a Rocky Mountain Power ("PacifiCorp" or the "Company"), by and through its counsel, provides these Reply Comments to the comments received by the Commission from the Commission's Staff("Staff'). I. PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND 1. On March 31, 2025, PacifiCorp filed its 2025 Integrated Resource Plan ("2023 IRP") with the Commission pursuant to the Commission's Order No. 22299, Case No. U-1500- 165, dated January 1989 ("Order No. 22299") that requires utilities to file bi-annual Integrated Resource Plans ("IRPs"). 2. On June 3, 2025, the Commission issued Order No. 36620 -Notice of Application and Notice of Intervention. Interested parties were given 21 days to intervene in the case. On June 25, 2023, the Commission issued a Notice of Parties listing the Company and Staff as parties to the case. 1 3. On July 22, 2025, the Commission issued Order No. 36683 - Notice of Modified Procedure, which informed the parties that the case would be processed under the Rules of Procedure 201 through 204 and established a procedural schedule for interested parties to file comments by October 7,2025,with the Company's reply comments due on October 21, 2025. On October 7, 2025, Staff filed comments on the Company's 2025 IRP. II. COMMISSION IRP STANDARDS 4. The IRP is a 20-yearl long-term resource plan intended to identify the least-cost, least risk portfolio of generation and transmission resources needed to meet the Company's obligation to serve. In Order No. 22299, the Commission required each electric utility party to submit a report of the status of its resource planning and established the standard for IRPs.2 The reporting requirements the Commission established are: (1) Discuss any flexibilities and analyses considered during comprehensive resource planning, such as: a. Examination of load forecast uncertainties; b. Effects of known or potential changes to existing resources; C. Consideration of demand and supply side resource options; and d. Contingencies for upgrading, optioning, and acquiring resources at optimum times(considering cost,availability,lead time,reliability, risk, etc.) as future events unfold. (2) Address Existing Resource Stack, Load Forecast, and Additional Resource Menu.3 ' The 2025 IRP used a 21-year modeling horizon due to a requirement from Washington to provide modeling results for 2045.Past and future IRPs used a 20-year modeling horizon. 2 In the Matter of the Investigation by the Idaho Public Utilities Commission into Idaho Electric Utility Conservation Standards and Practices. Order No.222299. (January 27,1989). 3 Id at 7. 2 5. In addition to complying with Order No. 22299,there are guidelines from previous IRP orders that are still relevant for PacifiCorp and its 2025 IRP. With the 2021 IRP Order No. 35514, Case No. PAC-E-21-19, dated August 30, 2022 ("2021 IRP Order") the Commission directed to Company to: • Explore an approach allowing for the selection of natural gas resources in a portfolio while also providing an adjustment to the cost based on the expected cost risk of becoming a stranded asset; and • Better assess the risks of technology viability and potential delays inherent with the Natrium nuclear plant implementation and plan for contingencies. 6. The 2023 IRP Order No. 35977, Case No. PAC-E-23-10, dated October 31, 2023 ("2023 IRP Order") established an expectation for the 2025 IRP to include a discussion of the impacts of Western Resource Adequacy Program("WRAP")compliance and appropriate planning margin and resource requirements. The Company has the standards and requirements laid out in both the 2021 IRP Order and the 2023 IRP Order. For ease of reference, Appendix B of the 2025 IRP lists the requirements included in the 2021 and 2023 IRP Orders and provides a reference to where those requirements were met.4 7. To be acknowledged, the 2025 IRP must address the requirements of Order No. 22299,the 2021 IRP Order, and the 2023 IRP Order. Because the Company's 2025 IRP meets the requirements of these orders, the Commission should acknowledge the Company's 2025 IRP. III. INTRODUCTION 8. The 2025 IRP was developed after substantial stakeholder input. PacifiCorp began a series of broader-topic general public-input meetings starting in January 2024, which addressed a range of subjects describing PacifiCorp's modeling methodology, inputs, and assumptions for 4 2025 IRP,Appendix B—IRP Regulatory Compliance at 30. 3 the 2025 IRP. Agenda topics included, but were not limited to, resource cost-and-performance assumptions, model function and overview, load forecast, price-policy assumptions, market price assumptions,jurisdictional clean energy obligations and transmission options. In all, PacifiCorp held nine public-input meetings. Public-input meeting materials, supporting studies, and stakeholder feedback forms can be found on PacifiCorp's IRP webpage.5 9. The resulting 2025 IRP and action plan ensures that PacifiCorp will provide adequate and reliable electricity supply to its customers at a reasonable cost. PacifiCorp's selection of the 2025 IRP preferred portfolio is supported by detailed data analysis under the following commitments steps: (1) Prioritizing Savings and Value for Customers, (2) Expanding Clean Power; (3) Building Storage Capacity; and (4) Investing in Transmission.' Each of these steps in the 2025 IRP development process are presented in greater detail in the Company's filing, including the supporting work papers that present the underlying data for each of the portfolios analyzed by PacifiCorp. 10. In these Reply Comments, PacifiCorp describes how the 2025 IRP and the associated action plan comply with all Commission requirements and responds to comments made by Staff. Because the 2025 IRP meets all Commission guidelines, the Company respectfully requests that the Commission acknowledge the 2025 IRP. 5 See https://www.pacificorp.com/energy/integrated-resource-plan.html; See also the 2025 IRP Volume II,Appendix C—Public-Input Process for more detail. 6 2025 IRP, Chapter 10 —Action Plan. Presentation of PacifiCorp's 2025 IRP action plan linking the company's preferred portfolio with specific implementation actions, including an accompanying resource acquisition path analysis and discussion of resource procurement risks. 2025 IRP,Chapter 1—Executive Summary at 2. 4 IV. REPLY TO STAFF'S COMMENTS 11. Staff recommends the Commission acknowledge the Company's 2025 IRP based on their review of the 2025 IRP and participation in stakeholder meetings. Staff recognizes that the 2025 IRP met the requirements in Order No. 22299. 12. While Staff recommends acknowledgment of the plan,they raise several key points. Staff proposes meeting with the Company to develop an Idaho-specific portfolio and to address the need to balance resource adequacy requirements with the risk of overbuilding. Staff also has several modeling recommendations including how price-policy scenarios are used,the application of"end effects" to all portfolios, and an additional verification step to confirm that the selected preferred portfolio ("PP") meets the defined loss of load expectation ("LOLE") target. Finally, Staff has additional recommended requirements such as providing a Boardman-to-Hemmingway (`1321­1") re-evaluation study and additional review of its hedging practices to reduce exposure to natural gas volatility. The Company will address each of these items in these reply comments. A. Preferred Portfolio (PP) Selection and Evaluation Methodology i. Justification of PP selection 13. In their comments, Staff notes that some variant portfolios perform better than the Integrated Base MN portfolio across other price-policy scenarios and requests further justification of the Company's selection of the MN portfolio as the preferred portfolio.' 14. PacifiCorp selected the Integrated Base MN portfolio based on its performance under the MN price-policy scenario after consideration of the stochastic risk adjustment and end effects. The MN price-policy scenario is the expected price-policy scenario and therefore portfolio cost under MN dispatch is more meaningful than costs under other price-policy scenarios. s Staff Comments p.7-8. 5 Additionally, stochastic analysis and end effects were only completed for the MN price-policy scenario, so results under MN are more robust than results under other price-policy scenarios. For stochastic analysis, PacifiCorp developed 18 years of actual data, including thermal outages, load, renewable shapes, and market and gas prices. PacifiCorp then dispatched each variant portfolio under all 18 of these historical conditions, stress-testing the ability of each portfolio to cost-effectively serve load under extreme conditions. The variable costs from these model runs were then used to calculate the stochastic risk adjustment.As a result, the risk-adjusted PVRR of each portfolio under MN incorporates the risk that conditions may vary significantly from the expected case. H. End Effects 15. Staff recommends that the Commission direct PacifiCorp to apply"end effects" to all price-policy scenarios, not just MN, in future IRPs.9 PacifiCorp is not opposed to this recommendation, while still emphasizing that there are tradeoffs in developing IRPs, and increasing the scope of a particular analysis will require diminishing the scope of a different analysis. iii. FOTs 16. Staff believes that not counting front office transactions (FOTs) towards WRAP compliance in the integrated PP could result in overbuilding and recommends the Company be directed to meet with Staff to explore how to balance meeting the WRAP compliance while avoiding overbuilding resources.l° In the 2025 IRP, PacifiCorp did not evaluate the cost- effectiveness of FOTs relative to proxy resource options. While FOTs may be able to fill future resource needs, it has traditionally been agreed by all parties that reliance on FOTs is risky. 9 Id. 10 Staff Comments p.14-15. 6 PacifiCorp would be open to including a limited quantity of market purchases as an option comparable to other proxy resource options available for selection by the model and eligible to contribute to resource adequacy in the 2027 IRP. PacifiCorp looks forward to meeting with Idaho Staff and discussing how to balance the costs and risks of building new resources and relying on FOTs. iv. LOLE Target and Additional Verification 17. Staff believes the Company should include an additional verification step to confirm the PP meets the LOLE target and clarify how the target of 2.4 event hours per year is achieved." The chart previously labeled as Figure K.2 in the 2025 IRP 12 is reproduced below as Figure 1 and shows all loss-of-load events for the 2025 IRP preferred portfolio. There is a total of 221 loss-of-load hours across the 18 stochastic 21-year runs, which is 0.58 event hours per year, which is well within the 2.4 event hours target. PacifiCorp does not oppose Staff's recommendation that future IRPs include more reporting of loss-of-load events. 11 Staff Comments p.16. 12 See Volume II,page 181. 7 Figure 1 10 • 12 9 • Each triangle 0 8 represents one o loss of load event o 7 • • 4. a 6 • Y • Ca 5 • • • c 4 • • A► W 3 • Y • AL0 `0 2 ♦ • • W► • IYY c1 AM& AM" � AM •v 0 0 Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter 2025- 2025- 2028- 2023- 2037- 2037- 2042- 2042- 2027 2027 2031 2031 2041 2041 2045 2045 B. Fuel Supply and Price Volatility i. Coal-to-Gas Conversion and Volatility Risk 18. Staff is concerned that coal-to-gas conversions introduce price volatility risk and recommends the Company review hedging practices to mitigate exposure.13 PacifiCorp has scheduled a workshop with Staff on November 6, 2025 to discuss its hedging strategy. The Company reviews the Energy Risk Management Policy("Policy") for any required updates on an annual basis.Additionally, the Company's Policy defines minimum and maximum limits in order to prevent under-hedging and over-hedging. Those minimum and maximum limits are expressed as a percentage of forecasted requirements, which means that when unit conversions occur, the Company's requirements forecast will increase, and the Company's hedging requirements will 13 Staff Comments p.9-10. 8 follow. This feature of the policy should help the Company to maintain prudent risk management of fuel costs when unit conversions occur. 19. The risks of fuel price volatility are also analyzed in the IRP. Stochastic analysis ensures the consideration of natural gas price volatility, directly impacting the evaluation of relative risk among competing portfolios. PacifiCorp's price-policy analysis also considers alternative scenarios, such as the high natural gas, high CO2 price-policy scenario. Pages 197-199 in Volume 1, Chapter 8 of the 2025 IRP include more detail on all price-policy scenarios included in the IRP. ii. Changes in Federal Policy 20. Staff believes that elimination of certain federal tax credits may invalidate parts of the IRP and requests an incremental analysis reflecting recent policy changes.14 PacifiCorp's integrated resource plan is a snapshot in time, that is updated annually. In other words, modeling requires that assumptions to locked down by a fixed date. In the case of the 2025 IRP, assumptions were locked down in September 2024 to allow for time for data input,model runs, and publication of the IRP update by January 2025. Accordingly, given the mechanics and realities of modeling, the 2025 IRP did not reflect the changes in federal policy of the new federal administration. 21. PacifiCorp is not able to predict the outcome of federal legislation. PacifiCorp's 2025 IRP was filed on March, 31, 2025, more than three full months before H.R. 1 became law. At the time PacifiCorp filed its 2025 IRP, the outcome of H.R. 1 was highly uncertain. Furthermore,in order to complete modeling and analysis for the 2025 IRP,PacifiCorp locked down the majority of input data and assumptions impacting modeling in the 2025 IRP in September 2024. For these reasons it was reasonable for the Company to model the IRA/IIJA federal tax 14 Staff Comments at p.4 and p.13. 9 credits for new renewable and storage resources in its 2025 IRR PacifiCorp agrees that analysis representing H.R. 1 tax credits for new renewable and storage resources is necessary, and will include incremental analysis representing these changes in federal tax credits is the 2025 IRP Update. C. Transmission Projects and Load Forecast Assumptions i. Large-customer Load System Impacts 22. Staff is concerned about the removal of large-customer loads from the load forecast, including the treatment of reserves,potential system impacts, and allocation of transmission costs to Idaho customers.15 PacifiCorp includes large new load in its planning but does not include large new load in its system optimization of proxy resources for the purposes of the IRR This is specifically to protect PacifiCorp's other customers,but also because the associated resources will not be selected as a part of the IRP-to-RFP process and should not be optimized on the same proxy basis. Special contracts or tariffs will determine the matching of large meter load and resources, and the IRP does not model special contracts as options,but rather as they become committed and later executed. PacifiCorp also notes that in its 2023 IRP certain stakeholders criticized the Company for including large load in the IRP, calling such load speculative and alleging that such treatment could result in overbuild. PacifiCorp is open to evaluating the impacts of large loads in the context of a sensitivity in the 2025 IRP Update. ii. B2H re-evaluation study 23. Staff recommends the Company provide its re-evaluation study regarding 132H and is concerned that the B2H CPCN may be affected. PacifiCorp included most of the benefits associated with B2H in the 2025 IRP preferred portfolio, including the incremental West-to-East 15 Staff Comments p.10-13. 10 transfer capability and other regional transmission benefits, and PacifiCorp continues to move forward with Idaho Power in the construction of B2H. PacifiCorp does not presently have transmission rights to move westbound transfers across B2H to other existing customer loads on its system, and PacifiCorp does not know when BPA will restart consideration of long-term transmission requests or changes in the future.At this time, it is unknown when BPA will reinitiate its study process, what types of transmission planning reforms it might implement when it does reinstate its study process,and what the study results for PacifiCorp's redirect requests might show. Consequently, it is unknown when or if the redirect requests might be granted, when the redirect requests might become effective, and how much it might cost for upgrades, if any,needed to grant the redirect requests. 24. As a result, B2H could not serve any of the existing West side load that was included in the development of the 2025 IRP preferred portfolio.While the B211 project would not serve existing load in the 2025 IRP analysis, there is new retail load expected to enter the system which 13211 can serve, preserving its usefulness. Therefore, despite the current BPA transmission restrictions,PacifiCorp stands by the modeling assumptions included in its application in Case No. PAC-E-23-0116. This is because an IRP is designed to identify least-cost, least-risk portfolios. A plan that assumes 13211 will obtain the redirect directs when BPA has suspended its study process is notably high-risk for the near term. However, if any clarity given from BPA in time for the 2025 IRP Update,will be reflected in that Update.The Company also plans to run additional sensitivities for its upcoming 2025 IRP Update, anticipated to be distributed on March 31, 2026, and subject to stakeholder discussion in its current IRP public input meeting series. 16 In the Matter of the Application of Rocky Mountain Power for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity Authorizing Construction of the Boardman-to-Hemmingway 500-kv Transmission Line Project. Case No.PAC-E-23- 01 (Filed January 27,2023). 11 D. Advanced Technologies and Resource Timing 25. Staff recommends the Company determine the actual timing of Natrium to avoid short-term resource commitments that could increase long-term costs and risks.Pending regulatory approvals," PacifiCorp has reached a commercial arrangement with TerraPower related to the Natrium demonstration project that protects customers from first-of-a-kind technology risks and supports the ability to address growing demand for clean, baseload power. The Natrium demonstration project has been named Kemmerer Power Station Unit 1 ("KU1") by TerraPower and is currently in the design and licensing phase. The Construction Permit Application was submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission("US NRC") in March, 2024. The US NRC has streamlined their application review schedule and now anticipates the final safety evaluation for the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report and final environmental impact statement to be complete by December, 2025, and the Construction Permit Application to be approved in early 2026. This approval will allow the beginning of construction of the Nuclear Island. On September 9, 2024,TerraPower submitted an exemption request to the US NRC related to construction of the Energy Island. The US NRC issued the exemption on May 7, 2025, allowing construction of the Energy Island to proceed prior to issuance of the Construction Permit. Construction on the Energy Island is anticipated to begin in 2025. Construction of the Sodium Test&Fill Facility is underway which includes the completion of the concrete foundation. TerraPower began construction of the Kemmerer Training Center in August 2025. 17 In Idaho,the Company has recently filed an application for the Natrium project.For more detail on this project see In the Matter of the Application of Rocky Mountain Power for a Waiver of the Solicitation Requirements Proposed in Case No. GNR-E-25-01. Case No.PAC-E-25-10(Filed October 20,2025). 12 26. Project status as tracked by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission ("NRC") can be found on the NRC's website (https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/advanced/who-were- working-with/applicant-projects/terrapower.html).PaciflCorp is willing to provide annual or semi- annual reports regarding the status of the Natrium (Kemmerer Unit 1, or KU 1) nuclear project beginning January 2026 if the Public Utility Commission of Idaho desires. iii. Idaho-Specific Portfolio Development 27. Staff recommends the Commission direct the Company to meet with Staff to explore developing an Idaho-specific portfolio before the next IRP. The Company has no objections to having this discussion and looks forward to meeting with Staff to explore this further. V. CONCLUSION 28. PacifiCorp's 2025 IRP complies with the Commission standards and requirements. The 2025 IRP includes robust and extensive portfolio modeling under a wide-range of price-policy scenarios and other prudent planning assumptions discussed with, and reflective of, stakeholder input that ultimately results in the selection of a least-cost, least-risk preferred portfolio. The 2025 IRP also includes an action plan that is consistent with the long-term public interest. The Company's 2025 IRP satisfies all the requirements in Order No. 22299 and the 2021 and 2023 IRP orders; therefore, the Company respectfully requests that the Commission acknowledge the Company's 2025 IRP. 13 DATED this 21 st day of October 2025. Respectfully submitted, ROCKY MOUNTAIN POWER Joe Dallas (ISB# 10330) 825 NE Multnomah, Suite 2000 Portland, OR 97232 Telephone: (360) 560-1937 Email:joseph.dallasgpacificorp.com Attorney for Rocky Mountain Power 14