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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20100517AVU to Staff 1-10.pdfXan Allen From: Sent: To: Subject: Attachments: Jean Jewell Monday, May 17, 2010 10:12 AM Xan Allen FW: Avista's Responses to IPUC Staff Production Requests - 5/12/10 Staff_PR_001.doc; Staff_PR_001 Attchment Apdf; Staff_PR_002.doc; Staff_PR_003.doc; Staff PR 004.doc; Staff PR 005.doc; Staff PR 006.doc; Staff PR 007.doc; Staff PR OOB.doc; Staff_PR_009.doc; Staff_PR_009 Ãttaehment Axis; Staff_DR_010.docx - - From: Kimball, Paul (mailto:Paul.Kimball(Qavistacorp.com) sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:39 PM To: Don Howell; Kris Sasser; peter(Qrichardsonandoleary.com; greg(Qrichardsonandoleary.com; howa rd. ray(Qciea rwaterpa per .com; joe(Qmcdevitt -miler .com; crowleyla(Qaol.com; rowena(Qidahocan .org; leeann(Qnwfco.org; bmpurdy(Qhotmail.com; botto(Qidahoconservation .org; kmiller(Qsnakeriveralliance.org; robpluid(Qgmail.com; energylogs(Qgmail.com; oxford(Qmeadowcrk.com Cc: Ehrbar, Pat; Andrews, Liz; Olsness, Patt Subjec: Avista's Responses to ¡PUC Staff Production Requests - 5/12/10 .~ . ~6~'.. ..... ~'h, .~ C).~~ #'. 'l...cPO .. ¿; '6i~ 1J ~-"(1' ..~tv.. ~~.~(.;., .'in' ~.~ J'.~ From: Kris Sasser sent: Monday, May 17, 2010 10:08 AM To: Jean Jewell Subjec: FW: Avista's Responses to ¡PUC Staff Production Requests - 5/12/10 May 12,2010 Idaho Public Utilties Commssion 472 W. Washington St. Boise, ID 83720-5918 Attn: Donald L. Howell, II Krstine A. Sasser Re: Production Request of the Commssion Staff in Case Nos. A VU-E-10-01 and A VU-G-10-01 Attached is Avista's response in connection to Staff production requests in the above referenced docket. Included in ths email is A vista's response to the following Production Requests: StaffPR 1-10 C:C:Staff_PR_001.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_001 Attachment Apdf:::: C:C:Staff_PR_002.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_003.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_004.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_005.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_006.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_007.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_008.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_009.doc:::: C:C:Staff_PR_009 Attachment Axls:::: C:C:Staff_DR_010.docx:::: i The items not included in ths email are: Staff PR 003C & Attachments - Confidential in natue. Staff _PR _006 Attachment - too large to emaiL. A CD with Production Request number 006 and attchment will be mailed to all pares today, 5/12/10. Staff PR 007C - Confidential in natue. Staff PR 008C - Confidential in natue. All CONFIDENTIAL responses wil be sent in a separate emaiL. If there are any questions regarding the attached information, please contact me at (509) 495-4584 or via e-mail at paul.kimball~avistacorp.com Than you, Paul Kimball Senior Regulatory Analyst State & Federal Regulation Avista Corporation 1411 E. Mission Ave, Box 3727 Spokane, W A 99220-3727 (509) 495-584 diect (509)368-0141 cell paul.kimballlfavistacorp.com 2 JURSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: REQUEST: AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION IDAHO A VU-E-I0-0l / AVU-G-I0-0l IPUC Production Request Staff-OOI DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Clint Kalich Clint Kalich Energy Resources (509) 495-4532 Please provide a copy of the BorisMetrics study referred to on page 10, lines 14 - 18, of the Direct Testimony of Clint Kalich. RESPONSE: The study is attached in the file "Staff PR 001 Attachment A." StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 1 of31 .mflir.1cs December 15th, 2004 Clint Katich Manager of Power Supply Analysis A vista Corporation - MSC-7 . Post Offce Box 3727 1411 East Mission Street Spokane, VV j\ 99220-3727 Letter Report on Northwest Power Pool Model Curve Fit Study Introduction Borismetrics reviewed and at the request of j\ vista updated the power curves relating inflow & other parameters to generation by a statistical analysis of historical data for use in the NVV Power Pool (pool) generation model (Model). \\ere the existing curves were deemed adequate, they were left unchanged. The following eight projects were the subject of the study (Study): 1) Cabinet; 3) Long Lake; 5) Monroe; 7) Nine Mile; 2) Noxon; 4) Little Falls; 6) Post Falls; 8) Upper Falls; The Model uses tables relating inflow and other parameters to generation. Below is a simple example of such a table for Upper Falls. j\ graph ofthe table has been added for ilustration. The tables are in a format that is "piece-wise" linear, where a non-linear cure is approximated by a series of straight lines. ,.... UFM.(mQD PA(O (M-.t't21002H.o..1".0---'0 0....-UI.. 1.701..7.7. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento,CA, 95851 Telephone: 425.922.2853 Fax: 650-429.2063 boriscæborismetrics.com StICPR_OO1 Attchment A Page 2 of 31 Page 2 of 31 Upper Fall Original Table 6 10.0 ~-- 8.0 -- 6.03:::0( 4.0 2.0 0.0 5,000 10,000 15,000 CFS 20,000 25,000 30,000 For example, an inflow of 15,000 CFS (cubic feet per second) would result in a generation of9 AMW (Average MegaWatts) for Upper Falls. The first task was to update curves based on upgrades to hydro facilties not refl~cted in the "old" tables. A number ofthe facilties were upgraded since the last tables were developed for the NW Power PooL. These upgrades were reflected in "new" tables. The second task of the Study was to develop "monthly" tables that provide an accurate relationship between average flows and other parameters and generation. The inflow in the tables is for a period of time to develop energy, AMW. The Model utilizes monthly flow data over a historical period, in this Study sixty years. Some of the "old" tables for the Model were developed based on daily relationships. However, because of the monthly natue of the Model runs, this would result in an over-estimate of energy. The monthly inflow in the Model represents an average of daily flows. Most of the tables represent a non-tinear relationship; so that the average monthly inflow imp tied generation would be different than the average of daily generation from every daily inflow. For example given the above Upper Falls table, suppose a 4 day period had the following daily flows: 2,100; 2,100; 2,900 and 2,900. The generation of these flows is 9.0,9.0,9.952 and 9.952 respectively. The average generation of the individual four days is 9.476. However, the average flow is 2,500 with a resulting generation of 10.0 AMW. This is an overstatement of generation by approximately 5.5%. Larger errors can occur where periods of high flow require a plant to spil water. Continuing with this example, daily flows of 5,000, 32,500, 15,000, and 1,700 would generate power equal to 8.2 AMW over 4 days. Averaging theflow (13,550 CFS) and referencing P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(§borismetrics.com Telephone: 425.922.2853 Fax: 650-429.2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 3 of 31 Page 3 of 31 the Upper Falls table, as the NWPP monthly model does, would find 9.1 AMW during the period considered, an overstatement of 11 %." The primar method of the Study was to utilze historical daily data (1989 to 2004) on flows, generation and elevation in combination with operational information from staff and statistical analysis to develop final "monthly" tables for use in the ModeL. The analysis was performed in Excel spreadsheets. The "new" tables were submitted to the NW Power Pool for "offcial" runs. The results of the old and new models in the Pool Model for the eight hydro projects in anual AMW is below: POST LONG UPPER NINE LITTLE NOXON CABINET AnnualAMW FALLS LAKE FALLS MONROE MILE FALLS RAPIDS GORGE Total Old Results 9.91 57.43 8.65 13.08 16.33 22.72 203.44 120.41 451.96 New Results .9.91 57.57 8.65 12.45 16.33 21.18 199.12 123.02 44.23 Difference 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.63 O.OC -1.54 -4.31 2.61 -3.73 % change 0.0%0.2%0.0%.4.8%0.0%-6.8%.2.1%2.2%-0.8% Methodology Description The 1 st step in developing new monthly curves was to review the old tables and clarify their use from A vista and NW Power Pool staff. In the simplest case, a single "old" table represented a relationship between flow and generation as in the example above. In other cases, there were several tables that acted jointly to calculate generation given varous input parameters. These more complex cases represented hydro projects with storage where elevation, draft and head were utilzed as input parameters. Multiple new tables were developed in these cases. As par of this "old" table review, upgrade information was collected. The 2nd step was to graph the relationship from the daily data to the data in the clarified "old" tables. An exact piecewise linear regression was fit to the old model utilizing the "linest" fuction in ExceL. A graph of all data for atable was made for reference. A graph of the old model was also made. The 3rd step was the development of a "daily" model utilizing historical data for the relevant period reflecting the most recent upgrade and operational data such as seasonality and special flow conditions. The daily model was developed with statistical techniques. Either a piecewise tinear regression or an "nth" order polynomial function was fit to the data. These are standard sttistical techniques for curve fitting. The 4th step was the development ofa "monthly" model based on the application of the daily model to the historical daily data, then the model daily data is averaged by month. The averaged monthly data for the table in question became the basis for the monthly modeL. The monthly average data was fit using similar statistical techniques as the daily modeL. Step 4 accounts for the overestimate of generation when a daily model is applied to a non-linear monthly modeL. The 5th step was to express the monthly model in a format required by the NW Power Pool for the model and having the Pool run the new tables. Additionally, the new models were tested in a P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borsmetncs borìstâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425.922-2853 Fax: 650-429.2063 StfCPR_001 Attachment A Page 4 of 31 Page 4 of 31 spreadsheet model that attempted to simulate the ModeL. While the additional spreadsheet model generally resulted in the same results as the Pool Model rus, the Model sometimes produced different results because the Model has parameters (such as flow maxums for generation) not reflected in the tables. Each of the projects wil be discussed below individually in the order listed above. The results wil be presented graphically with a nartive. A new table in Model format is also presented. Spreadsheets of the analysis are attched to the report on a compact disk. Cabinet Cabinet has a single table (Table 6) relating flow (CFS) to generation (AMW). The old table is displayed below. Old Cabinet Madel Table 6 50 20,000 40,000 60,000 CFS 80,000 100,000 120,000 200 150 i 100 The char below shows the actual daily data for the Study as blue diamonds. Note the parallel lines of generation staing around 35,000 CFS representing upgrade in 2001. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristaborismetrics.com Telephone: 425.922-2853 Fax: 650-429.2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 5 of 31 Page 5 of 31 Cabinet Daily Analysis 250.0 50.0 Uii 200.0 . .....-- 150.0 ~ci 100.0 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Thousands CFS . actual L new daily model . old The pink line with squares represents the old modeL. The new daily model, a two-piece linear regression, is shown as a red tine with triangles. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris~borismetrics.com Telephone: 425.922.2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 6 of 31 Page 6of31 Cabinet Monthly Model 250.0 200.0 Monthly Model 150.0 §ce 100.0 50.0 0.0 o 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Thousands CFS I · actual -monthly .. daily I The monthly model was developed by utilizing the daily model on daily data, then creating monthly averages and curve fitting the results. The monthly model is depicted above. A five- piece linear regression was utilized. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristaborismetrics.com Telephone: 425.922.2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_OO1 Attchment A Page 7 of 31 Page 7of31 The above provides a comparson ofthe "old" model, the monthly model and the daily Ilodel. Below is the final Model table based on the new monthly curve. Table 6 Cabinet line #CFS AMW QD PA 1 -0.0 2 .24,001 170.3 3 39,001 222.5 4 58,001 231.3 5 100,000 215.0 6 999,999 215.0 Noxon Thee tables were analyzed: . Table 7 Tailrace elevation (Feet) related to inflow (CFS) . Table 9 Generation Effciency, HOVERK (AMW/Feet) related to inflow (CFS) . Table 10 Maximum Generation (AMW) related to Head (Feet) P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCWborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StaICPR_001 Attchment A Page 8 of31 Page 8 of 31 Tailrace (in feet) is determined given flow (kfs, 1,000 cfs) by Table 7. Head is then determined given pool elevation and the tailrace. Given flow and head, initial generation is calculated (Table 9). This value is then checked against maximum generation (Table 10). Table 7, the tailrace cure, is depicted below. A four order polynomial regression was fitted to the tailrace cure. Table 7 Tailrace Model 2,188.0 2,178.0 2,186.0 2,184.0 2,182.0 ~ 2,180.0 2,176.0 2,174.0 2,172.0 o 20 40 60 KFS I..Actual ..Old -i New I 80 100 120 The fitted new model is virtally upon the actual data in the.Char. Clearly the fitted model fits the actual data in a non-linear maner, while the old Table 7 is an inferior tinear approximation. The new model was utilized due to its superior fit. Table 9 was then examined given the calculated head from the new Table7. Below is a depiction of Table 9 ofthe following: daily data (blue diamonds), the old model (red tine with trjangles) and the new a 5th order polynomial regression daily model (pink line with squares). The new daily non-tinear model was statically superior to a linear modeL. The data displays a non-lÍiear pattern. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 Page 9 of 31 ¡;J! Staff_PR_001 Attachment A Page 9 of31 All Noxon MWlkf vs Head 12.0 -- 11.5 11.0 10.5 Old -- .....-... New -- 10.0 .. - ,.- - -- _..- _ i- - - -- ---.- - ---:/Ii --- - 9.5 138.0 152.0 154.0 156.0 158.0140.0 142.0 144.0 146.0 148.0 150.0 Mwlkf I . - data Ii Daily mAm Old I The monthly model (below) was fitted as a 5th order polynomial regression based on the use of the new daily model on daily data then averaged by month. 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 ii:i 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 Noxon Monthly HK vs Head (Table 9) ._....._--_.._...._._..._._..__......_............................._-_...._........__........_........_.._...............__......._ø..__.._.__..........., . ..".,.., ....-t'/--- ..II :lfiI.11 I~- II- 10.3 142.0 156.0 158.0150.0 Head I- data I~ Monthly I 152.0 154.0144.0 146.0 148.0 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCåborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 10 of 31 Page 10 of 31 The models for Noxon Table 9 compare as follows. Noxon Table 9 Model Compare 11.60 11.40 11.20 11.00 ~ 10.80 10.60 10.40 10.20 10.00 ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ ~ ~r;C; .- ~ ~ ~. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ,,~ ~ ,,~ ,,~ "v; ,,'5 "VJ ~~ Head I-daily ..monthly ..old I Table 10 was examined and the old data are depicted below. It represents max generation when spil occurs, where flow is capped given Head leveL. Data where spil occured is used to develop Noxon Table 10 rn LLo =~ 48,000 47,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 129.0 --~~~..~~ "' 139.0 149.0 Head 159.0 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borìstâbonsmetrìcs.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 Page 11 of 31 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 11 of31 Table 10 data which is displayed below. Noxon Max Flow vs Head (T-10) 1/ 51"c:II !l 500.c~ 49 48 'a1/..47II c:GI.2 J!46 co )(II E 45 44 43 .. +...:.: ~ · ...' .... · If. ......... . ....-. ..~ l'' ;..... ,... .... .. .i. ~ ......... ·.,. ..........-- .. .... ... .#....,:.......#.... ...l.......... . . .. 42 140.0 141.0 142.0 143.0 144.0 145.0 Head 147.0 150.0148.0 149.0146.0 The data has a shotgun pattern above 145 feet of Head so that regression models fit poorly statistically. Also, the data is from a very limited sample. For these reasons, the old model was not updated. The following new NWPPA tables were developed for Noxon. Table 7 . Taile Race Model QD TW line #Cfs Feet 1 0.00 2,172.99 2 5,000.00 2,173.16 3 10,000.00 2,173.72 4 15,000.00 2,174.57 5 20,000.00 2,175.64 6 25,000.00 2,176.84 7 30,000.00 2,178.10 8 100,000.00 2,184.80 9 124,500.00 2,186.90 10 9,999,999.00 2,186.90 Table 9 Head HOVK Line # Feet (MW/cfs) 1 140.00 9.89 2 141.00 10.01 3 142.00 10.12 4 143.00 10.24 5 144.00 10.35 6 145.00 10.46 7 146.00 10.56 8 147.00 10.66 9 148.00 10.75 10 149.00 10;84 11 150.00 10.91 12 151.00 10.97 13 152.00 11.02 14 153.00 11.06 15 154.00 11.08 16 155.00 11.09 17 156.00 11.08 18 157.00 11.08 19 99999 11.081365 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_OO1 Attachment A Page 12 of 31 Page 12 of 31 Long Lake Long Lake is a storage project with multiple tables. Tables 2 and 3 relate generation effciency (HOVERK) to draft and elevation. Draft and elevation are .considered equivalent. Table 6 represents maximum generation for a given flow in CFS. The daily data over the whole study period for Table 6 depicted below demonstratès multiple upgrades since 1989. Table 6 - Long Lake All Data 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 i: 50.0:: c( 40.0 30.0 . 20.0 10.0 0.0 ,. ~.-i" .....,'-.....~. ~....- .-:... .. . . .. -fi.. . . 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Thousands CFS Given discussions with A vista staff the last upgrade was completed in 1999. Data for 2000 on was therefore utilized to develop Tables 2 and 3 as depicted below on the next page. Tables 2 and 3 were developed by taking daily data from 2000 on and timiting the data to conditions below an elevation of 1,530 feet. Data above 1,530 is where spil occurs and Tables 2 and 3 do not apply. The data is displayed below as generation efficiency, HOVERK, (AMW/KS) a fuction of elevation. The data below on the next page displays two distinct groups of data, an upper tine and a lower tine. The lower tine reflects the old model (red with squares). Internal staff was unable to identify upgrades that would explain the upper line; therefore a new model (pink line with triangles) was fitted to the lower data. This new model is approximately the same as the old modeL. For these reasons the old curve was kept, with the caveat that new information could change the model in the future. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 13 of 31 Page 13 of 31 Long Lake Table 2 & 3 HOVRK to Elevation 2000 on 12.5 12.0 .__._..._..__..-.+-.._-_....__._.._-- .. · )",... ...."... . ,....:,....,..-: ,..., . ....... i 11.5::~:iii~ 11.0o:i ..~ 10.5 .. 10.0 1,515 1,520 1,525 elevation in feet I · data ..Old ..Possible New I 1,530 1,535 The Table 6 analysis for the daily model of maximum generation to flow is displayed below. Long Lake Table 6 Daily Models 10.0 90.0 80.0 . .- New..........u......., .Old ~ 70.0 . 60.0 . . I 50.0c:40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 o 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 CFS I . data -old -0 .. new I P.O. Box15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(âborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafLPR_001 Attchment A Page 14 of 31 Page 14 of 31 The daily Table 6 model for Long Lake is a two-piece linear regression model that incorporates upgrades in the estimation. Note the data from 2000 on, in blue is covered fairly well by the new model represented by the pink line. The old model is in red cleariy shows the new model reflects upgrades better than the old modeL. Long Lake Monthly Table 6 90.0 10.0 .-&.. f~.i .;! 1 .l . III I 80.0 70.0 60.0 ~ 50.0 c: 40.0 30.0 20.0 0.0 o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Thousands CFS I . data -model I Above is the monthly model estimated as five-piece linear regression modeL. The resulting Table 6 for the Model is below. Long Lake Table 6 QD PA CFS MW 0 0 5,000 58.6 6,400 73.4 10,000 85.2 20,000 82.8 40,000 86.3 999999 86.3 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCfborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2003 Staff_PR_001 Attchment A Page 15 of 31 Page 15 of 31 Little Falls Little Falls is a project with multiple tables. Below is a graph (Table 6) of all data of generation versus flow. Little Falls Daily All 5.0 35.0 30.0 . if ':. ~ _ . . . 25.0 . ~ 20.0 :¡c( . ,... ... ... . I . . . 15.0 . . 10.0 0.0 o 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 CFS There are three tables of interest. The first is Table 7 that determines tailrace elevation as fuction òfflow. Table 7 was not updated. Litte Falls Table 7 Tailrace 1,298.00 1,293.00 i; I ~ 1,288.00 ~ 1,283.00 1,278.00 o 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,00 45,000 50,000 CFS P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(1borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_OO1 Attchment A Page 16 of 31 Page 16 of 31 Given the determination of tailrace, head was determined as elevation minus the level of head. Table 10 provides the maximum of usable flow (CFS) given head. It is assumed that HOVERK is calculated using Table 10 to limit flow given the level of head. Table 10 Liille Falls Max CFS ~ Head 7,600 7,400 7,200 7,000 ~ ~ 6,800 .,:¡ 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 Head Table lOis a "given" operational table with no data for comparison and therefore not changed. The resulting Table 9, which has generation effciency, HOVERK (AMWIKS), as a function of head is depicted below. The new linear model (pin triangles) fits in a superior maner to the old model (red tine with squares). P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris~borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 17 of31 Page 17 of 31 Table 9 Little Falls Hk vs Head 5.5 ...N.._....._...._....... .. 5.3 5.1 Old~ 4.9 4.7 ~ 4.5 . . ..... New ~ ";.11': .t,. .l .. .4.3 4.1 . . ......... . : ~.. 72 73 74 75 76 3.9 3.7 . . 3.5 66 67 68 69 71 Head I · data ..old ..... new I 70 The data beyond 76 feet of head was excluded as it represented maximum generation conditions and had data that was clearly disjoint from the lower data. A linear regression was fitted to the data. Because of the tinear relationship, a monthly model was not developed. Or put another way, a daily linear model wil results in the same monthly model mathematically. The next and last is Table 6 that determines maximum generation after initial generation is calculated by Table 9. The daily Table 6 is displayed above. The old model is displayed a red line with squares. The new daily model is a four piece linear regression (pink tine only). The two models are fairly close. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris~borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 Stal'CPR_001 Attchment A Page 18 of 31 Page 18 of 31 Little FallsTable- Dally Max Gen vs CFS 15.0 ...# ... .. New is the line in the middle of the data 35.0 30.0 25.0 ~ 20.0:ic 10.0 5.0 0.0 o 5 10 15 20 25 30 Thousnds CFS I . dat _Old -New I The monthly Table 6 is displayed below. The new monthly model is depicted as a pink line only, the data is in blue diamonds and the old model is a red line with triangles. A 3rd order polynomial regression was fitted to the data for the monthly modeL. Monthly Little Falls Table 6 .._--_.__.........._-_.....__..._._....__......_.._._.... . . 5.0 ... ... . .. .. .30.0 Old . 25.0 . 20.0 s::: c( 15.0 10.0 0.0 ..... o 6,000 10,000 12,000 14,0002,000 4,000 8,000 CFS I · data -Monthly ""Old I P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(iborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2003 Page 19 of 31 StafCPR_001 Attchment A The new tables for the Pool Model are as follows: Table 6 Little Falls QD PA CFS MW 1 0 0.0 2 1,000 3.5 3 4,000 18.5 4 5,000 21.8 5 6,000 24.4 6 7,000 26.4 7 8,000 27.9 8 9,000 29.0 9 10,000 29.7 10 11,000 30.1 11 12,000 30.4 12 13,000 30.7 13 14,000 30.9 14 15,000 31.2 15 16,000 31.8 16 99,999 31.6 Monroe Table 9 Little Falls feet.mw/cfs Head HOVK 62.00 4.21 88.00 5.05 Page 19 of 31 Monroe Street (Monroe) is a small run of the river project with one table. The one table is Table 6, generation as a function of flow. The data for all the daily study period is below. Note the upgrades in the historical plot of all the data. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borìscmborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 Page 20 of 31 Staff_PR_001 Attchment A Page 20 of 31 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 s:8.0:E'" 6.0 4.0 2.0 Monroe Table 6 All data daily ',." ~ ..""i :u *il. ...*- ~.,.:I .. Z . d*'S' zXx. . if-z:ii:~. ........~~:. z:,.:~~z :... .. .¿ . '" I ii' . ... '...... . '" . . .. :i~jr.. .lIZñ:~1I ~ .. ..u' . ... #:."A... ..,~,fa"~iim...:. u ..'i x x:i. x'" 1:xll :i .:I:i.. . . i: II .. . :I x ~..~.'" 0.0 o 40,000 45,00015,000 30,000 35,00020,000 25,000 CFS 5,000 10,000 The daily model was developed on data from 2001 on, due to upgrades, as a three-piece linear model (below as red line with squares). Plant upgrades were not reflected in old model (pink line and squares), but are in the new daily modeL. Monroe Table 6 Daily; 2001 on 16.0 .New 14.0 .. .. Id 12.0 10.0 ลก:8.0:;ci 6.0 . 4.0 . 2.0 .. 0.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,00 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 CFS I .data -model ..old I P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris~borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafLPR_001 Attachment A Page 21 of31 Page 21 of 31 Monroe Monthly Model 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 ~8.0 c: 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 --_._...._.__..._--..._-_.__.._.._---_._-_.__._.._.......__......_--_.-..-_._._.._----~...~. 1i t. 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 CFS I . data -0 model I 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 The monthly model was developed as a three-piece linear model based on the daily model as before. The new Table 6 for the Pool Model rus is below. Monroe Table 6 CFS MW 0 0 2,700 13.3 7,100 14.8 99,999 14.8 Post Falls Post Falls is a storage project with multiple tables. Due to data considerations (complex seasonal pattern) and the relative small size of the project, only Table 6, maximum generation as fuction of flow, was analyzed. The old Table 6 does not have a seasonal pattern, but based on internal discussions and an examination of the data, a seasonal pattern was detected (see below). P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris((borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafLPR_001 Attchment A Page 22 of 31 Page 22 of 31 Post Falls Table 6 Seasons 20 .-.-...-.....-.-------...- 18 8 Non-Winter has Higher Peak ~ 18 vs 16 AMW 16 14 .. . 12 ~ 10((. 6 . 4 2 . o o 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 CFS I. Jan to Apr . May to June À Sep to Dec I 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Generally winter (blue diamond in above char) peaks at a lower level than the rest ofthe year. Winter was refined as December though ApriL. The other season was the "rest" ofthe year. Two Table 6 models were developed based on these seasonal periods. The following two pages of chars present the daily and monthly models for the two seasons. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borist?borismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 23 of 31 Page 23 of 31 Post Falls Winter Daily Model 18 16 14 12 S 10 ::'"8 6 4 2 0 0 . ... .... .. . . . 5,000 10,000 15,000 CFS . actual -I model I 20,000 25,000 The best-fit winter daily model was a 4th order polynomial regression modeL. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristÕborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650429-2003 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 24 of 31 Page 24 of 31 The best-fit winter monthly model also was a 4th order polynomial regression depicted above. Post Fall Rest Daily Model 16 18 14 .. 12 ~ 10::'" 8 ... . 6 4 2 o o 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 CFS I · data -- Daily I 35,000 40,000 45,000 The daíly best-fit "rest" model was a 3rd order polynomial regression depicted above. Post Falls Rest Monthy Model 18 ..16 .. I~1i II I~...-I~II 14 I~.. .. ,I~I~I~lI. . 12 s: 10 .::'"8 6 4 2 l 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 CFS I. actual I~ model 1 The best-fit "rest" monthly data was a 3rd order polynomial regression. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borìstãborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 25 of 31 Page 25 of 31 Post Falls Model Comparison 16 2 14 12 10 ~ 8 oi 6 4 o o 5,000 10,000 15,000 CFS 20,000 25,000 30,000 I-Old ..Winter Monthly -- Rest Monthly I Interestingly, the old Table 6 model is in between the two new seasonal Table 6 models. The two new Table 6s for the Pool Model are found below. ec 0 pr In er ay 0 ov es CFS MW CFS MW 0 0.00 0 0.00 1,000 3.89 1,000 3.85 2,000 7..04 2,000 7.01 3,000 9.52 3,000 9.54 4,000 11.39 4,000 11.53 5,000 12.71 5,000 13.03 6,000 13.55 6,000 14.12 7,000 13.99 7,000 14.86 8,000 14.08 8,000 15.30 9,000 13.90 9,000 15.50 10,000 13.53 10,000 15.51 11,000 12.90 11,000 15.36 999,999 12.90 12,000 15.11 13,000 14.79 14,000 14.42 15,000 13.80 999,999 13.80 Post Falls Table 6 D t A W"t Post Falls Table 6M t N R t P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borisCâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafLPR_OO1 Attchment A Page 26 of 31 Page 26 of 31 Nine Mile Nine Mile has multiple Table 6s that represent thee seasonal conditions. It is a ru ofthe river project so the Table 6 relating generation to flow is the only table type. There was no readily available information as to the actual seasonal definitions for the thee old Pool Table 6s. It appears that the seasonatity embedded in the code of the Pool Model was actually tued off and no internal information was available. The char of all the data shows multiple upgrades and some complexity. Nine Mile Table 6 All 25.0 5.0 20.0 . 15.0 s: :f . . . .10.0 . .. .\t............ . ...... to... .. .. 0.0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 CFS I. all ,á 2003 on I The most recent upgrades occurred in 2002, so the data for analysis became very timited. Two seasons were detected rather than the three, which could be a function of the data. February and March were the detected winter season, essentially representing high generation at the 24 MW leveL. The second season was the "rest" of the year. The estimated daily models are presented below. Note the winter has a slightly higher peak than the "rest". Both models are two-piece linear models. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(âborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 Page 27 of 31 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 27 0131 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 ~17.0:i 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 2003 on Nine Mile Seasons Winter has higher peak --li Rest is lower ~.-- . . 2 16 18 Thousands 4 12 146810 CFS I · rest data - winter data ....,¡.... rest model. .... winter model I The best-fit monthly winter model as a three-piece tinear regression is below. Monthly Winter Nine Mile 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 ~ 15.0 c( 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 .....-./.--. ¡r ~ // ".,J 5,000 25,00010,000 15,000 20,000 CFS I · data --model I The best-fit "rest" monthly model estimated as a 3rd order polynomial regression is shown below. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristâborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2003 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 28 of 31 Page 28 of 31 Monthly Data Rest Nine Mile 25.0 20.0 . .... 15.0 ~ :Ec( 10.0 .. ..:..._..:.... l ,.~ ... I1I1I1 ÎJ . .. . . ...: .. 5.0 . . ... . 0.0 o 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 CFS I. da . model 1 The new Power Pool tables follow. Table 6 Nine Mile February & March Table 6 Nine Mile& D CFS AMW 0 0.00 4,800 17.78 4,900 18.83 5,000 18.96 7,800 22.73 7,900 22.28 24,000 20.30 999,999 20.30 Jan.Apr to ec CFS AMW 0 0.00 1,000 6.94 2,000 9.02 3,000 10.94 4,000 12.70 5,000 14.30 6,000 15.74 7,000 17.02 8,000 18.14 9,000 19.10 10,000 19.90 11,000 20.54 12,000 21.03 13,000 21.35 14,000 21.51 15,000 21.50 999,999 21.50 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boriscæborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attchment A Page 29 of 31 Page 29 of 31 Upper Falls Upper Falls is a run of the river project with one table, Table 6 (generation vs. flow). The data and information shows there was an upgrade in 1995. Upper Fall Table 6 All data 11 9 10 ~ 8.. . ,... . 7 .. 6 5 o 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 CFS i · data ..Old I The best-fit daily model is estimated below as a seven piece tinear regression. Upper Falls Daily Model 10.0 8.0 ;:6.0 :;e: 4.0 2.0 .. .'..... .I.. ~. 0:r 0.0 o . . 5,000 10.000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 . CFS I · data -I Daily I P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boris(lborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StfCPR_001 Attchment A Page 30 of 31 Page 30 of 31 Upper Falls Monthly Model 10 5 ._._~_.. -.__._- 1.. --~-_. ~r,--.. ~.., ,.: ~'. l ¡ ~ ! 9 8 ~ 7ci 6 4 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 CFS I · data -+ model I The best-fit monthly model above was a five-piece linear regression. The new Table 6 for the Pool Model follows: Table 6 Upper Falls NWP . Une#CFS MW 1 0 0 2 300 0.30 3 900 3.33 4 1,200 4.50 5 1,500 5.67 6 1,800 6.84 7 2,100 8.01 8 2,200 8.40 9 2,300 .8.79 10 2,400 9.19 11 2,500 9.58 12 2,600 9.89 13 2,700 9.88 14 2,800 9.87 15 8,00 9.37 16 10,100 9.25 17 15,200 8.89 18 20,000 8.61 19 25,400 8.35 20 999,999 8.35 P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics borìs(Cborismetrìcs.com Telephone: 42?-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 StafCPR_001 Attachment A Page 31 of31 Page 31 of 31 Summary The underting of the revision of the Pool models confirmed the two general tasks. First, there were a number of upgrades to hydro projects that were not included in the old models. These new upgrades were successfully captured in the new models. Second, the possible overestimation of generation due to the use of a daily model on monthly data was overcome through proper estimation techniques. The results by project are below based on Pool Model rus. POST LONG UPPER NINE LITTLE NOXON CABINET AnnualAMW FALLS LAKE FALLS MONROE MILE FALLS RAPIDS GORGE Total Old Results 9.91 57.43 8.65 13.08 16.33 22.72 203.44 120.41 451.96 New Results 9.91 57.57 8.65 12.45 16.33 21.18 199.12 123.02 448.23 Difference 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.63 0.00 -1.54 -4.31 2.61 -3.73 % change 0.0%0.2%0.0%-4.8%0.0%-6.8%-2.1%2.2%-0.8% The overall change was a reduction of3.73 AMW due to the correction for the overestimation of daily models on monthly models being greater than the effect of upgrades. P.O. Box 15040 Sacramento, CA, 95851 Borismetrics boristaborismetrics.com Telephone: 425-922-2853 Fax: 650-429-2063 AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JUSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO AVU-E-I0-0l 1 A VU-G-1O-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-002 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/2212010 Clint Kalich James Gall Energy Resources (509) 495-2189 REQUEST: Please explain why the 1929-1978 historical record is used for the Clark Fork hydro studies discussed on page 12 of the Direct Testimony of Clint Kalich. Explain why hydro data for the 1979-2009 period is not used in the studies. RESPONSE: Avista chose to use the 1929-1978 dataset to align its efforts in Idaho and Washington, and to be consistent with recent filings in both states. To use an expanded data set, data needs to be available for both A vista hydro resources and other northwest hydro proj ects. The NWPP provide such data only through 1998. Curently BP A is studying data through 2005 and we expect it to be completed sometime next year. At that time we wil review the data for consideration in a rate filing. The 50-year period was initially the result ofthe 2005 Puget Sound Energy proceeding in Washington State where Washington Staff expressed concerns with the data beyond 1979. Furher information maybe found in Washington Docket Nos. UG-040640, UE-040641, UE-031471, and UE-032043 Order No. 06. Section 125 provides an effcient sumar ofthe issue. Section 125: Staff, however, disagreed with the use of the full 60 years of stream flow data because the "rule cures" that the Northwest Power Pool and federal agencies such as BPA develop and apply to ru off volumes to account for the multiple uses to which the rivers are put are not yet available for the most recent 10 years. Thus, Staff recommended that we rely on data from the period 1928- 1977 in this proceeding. Furher, Avista's previous general rate case settlement (Doc AVU-E-09-01) used the same hydro year records. AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JUSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO A VU-E-IO-Ol / A VU-G-IO-Ol IPUC Production Request Staff-003 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Richard Storro James Gall Energy Resources (509) 495-2189 REQUEST: Please provide a copy of the Lancaster PP A discussed on page 4 line i 0, through page 5 , line 40f the Direct Testimony of Richard Storro. RESPONSE: Please see Avista's response 003C, which contains TRAE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIAL information and exempt from public view and is separately fied under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code, and pursuant to the Protective Agreement between Avista and IPUC Staff dated April 14,2010. JUSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: REQUEST: AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION IDAHO AVU-E-10-01 1 A VU-G-10-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-004 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Richard Storro James Gall Energy Resources (509) 495-2189 Please explain how costs associated with the purchase of5.7 aMW ofRECs per year from 2012 through 2015 are allocated between Idaho and Washington. Reference Storro p. 9, lines 6-8. RESPONSE: The costs associated with this transaction are outside the time period ofthis rate fiing. These costs wil be addressed in a future rate proceeding. AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JURSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO AVU-E-10-01 1 A VU-G-10-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-005 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Wiliam Johnson William Johnson Energy Resources (509) 495-4046 REQUEST: On page 11, lines 7-14 of the Direct Testimony of William Johnson, he discusses the purchase of 250 MW of point-to-point transmission for the Lancaster plant. Does Avista have any future plans to build transmission to directly connect the Lancaster plant to its system? If so, please discuss. RESPONSE: Yes. Avista is pursuing with BP A a joint study of the potential interconnection of the AVA transmission system to the BP A transmission system at the BP A Lancaster substation. The Lancaster plant itself wil continue to be interconnected to BPA's system at the Lancaster substation. A vista has entered into the formal Line and Load Interconnection (LLI) process that BP A requires to be used for this type of interconnection request. The Company has had an initial meeting with BPA to discuss details concerning the schedule for BPA's LLI process, including scope of work involved with the interconnection and the schedule associated with the facility design and proj ect construction. BP A is currently conducting a system impact study regarding the interconnection. Once that is completed a facilities study would need to be completed. Once all studies are completed, an estimate of the time required for design and construction of the facilities typically expected for an interconnection of this type indicates that such a project could potentially be completed within two years. The Company currently expects the study work to be completed in 2010. This would indicate an operational date oflate 2012 or early 2013. However, this is only an estimate based on general design and constrction timelines observed in the industry and is not reflective of an estimate provided by BP A. BPA estimates of construction on-line dates wil not be available until later in the LLI process. A preliminary estimate of A vista's direct cost for the Company-owned portion of this interconnection is $3 million. Avista's preliminary estimate ofBP A portion of cost is less than $1 million. Additional details about the cost of the interconnection will not be known until the LLI process and design work has been completed. A VISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JUSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO A VU-E-10-01 1 AVU-G-10-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-006 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 05/11/2010 Dave DeF elíce Jeanne Pluth State & Federal Reg. (509) 495-2204 REQUEST: Please provide a copy of any reports, studies or other analysis demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of the following generation capital projects: a. Noxon Units 2 and 3 upgrades, b. Kettle Falls capital projects, c. Colstrip capital additions, d. Nine Mile upgrade, e. Coyote Springs 2 capital projects, f. Boulder Park control network replacement, and g. any other generation capital projects that individually exceeded $1 milion. In those instances in which justification for a paricular capital project was not based solely on economics, please describe any non-economic benefits and quantify those benefits to the extent possible. RESPONSE: See attached documentation (electronically only, due to the amount of information) for the following generation projects: Supporting Amount Documentation ER#ER Description (millons)Schedule 4137 Noxon Unit # 2 Upgrade $9.245 Schedule 2 4138 Noxon Unit # 3 Upgrade $9.265 Schedule 1 4101 Kettle Falls Capital Project $1.754 Schedule 3 4116 Colstrip Capital Additions $2.275 Schedule 4 4104 Nine Mile Upgrade $3.954 Schedule 6 4132 CS2 $0.855 Schedule 19 4113 Boulder Park $0.410 Schedule 20 4105 Noxon Capital Project $7.551 Schedule 7 6103 Clark Fork Implementation $3.595 Schedule 8 These materials were initially prepared for the Washington jurisdiction and include system numbers. AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JURSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO A VU-E-10-0l 1 A VU-G-10-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-007 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Clint Kalich James Gall Energy Resources (509) 495-2189 REQUEST: Please provide electrc and natual gas forward prices for October 2010 - September 20 i i contract months as reported daily for all settlement dates during the period January 1,2009 through the present for each of the locations included in the forward prices previously provided in the workpapers of Clint Kalich. Please provide the data in an electronic Excel format. RESPONSE: Please see Avista's response 007C, which contains TRAE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIAL information and exempt from public view and is separately filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code, and pursuant to the Protective Agreement between Avista and IPUC Staff dated April 14,2010. AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMTION JUSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO A VU-E-IO-Ol 1 AVU-G-IO-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-008 DATE PREPARD: WITNSS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 4/30/2010 Clint Kalich James Gall Energy Resources (509) 495-2189 REQUEST: Please list and describe any gas purchase contracts that have already been executed for delivery of gas to Coyote Springs 2 or Lancaster during any months of the pro forma period. List the date of the purchase, the quantity of gas, the scheduled delivery dates, and the price for the purchase in $/MMBtu. RESPONSE: Please see Avista's response 008C, which contains TRAE SECRET, PROPRIETARY or CONFIDENTIAL information and exempt from public view and is separately filed under IDAPA 31.01.01, Rule 067 and 233, and Section 9-340D, Idaho Code, and pursuant to the Protective Agreement between Avista and IPUC Staff dated April 14,2010. AVISTA CORPORATION RESPONSE TO REQUEST FOR INFORMATION JURSDICTION: CASE NO: REQUESTER: TYPE: REQUEST NO.: IDAHO AVU-E-IO-Ol 1 A VU-G-10-01 IPUC Production Request Staff-009 DATE PREPARD: WITNESS: RESPONDER: DEPARTMENT: TELEPHONE: 04/30/2010 Clint Kalich Randy Barcus Finance (509) 495-4160 REQUEST: For the pro forma period, please compare the Company's July 2009 monthly load forecast as used in this rate case filing to the Company's monthly load forecasts made in each of the previous two years. Please discuss changes in the forecasts due to economic conditions or other significant events. Please also discuss, for A vista's service terrtory, the Company's expectations about the timing and pace of recovery from the curent recession and accompanying rebound in load. Finally, compare the load forecasts for the past two years to the Company's actual weather-normalized loads durng the same time period. RESPONSE: Average load for the pro forma period is 1,122 average megawatts prior to any adjustments for generation at Clearater Paper Company, Lewiston, Idaho. This compares with the year ago forecast of 1,165 average megawatts, and the two years ago forecast of 1,156 average megawatts. The two years ago forecast did not include a major electrc load increase at a paper manufacturing company in Millwood, Washington. Both the pro forma year and the year ago forecast included a similar forecasted load increase at this facility. The facility began operations in November 2009 and is operating at the expected leveL. The forecast prepared two years ago (in July 2007) anticipated a slowdown of economic growth in the service area, although a recession was not contemplated. The forecast prepared one year ago (in July 2008) factored in a moderate recession with a slowdown in constrction in the residential and commercial sectors along with a significant reduction in industrial output. The aforementioned load addition at the paper company was unelated to the recessionary downward adjustments. The pro forma forecast (prepared in July 2009) incorporated the severe impacts of the recession which exceeded prior year expectations. A dramatic slowdown in construction along with prolonged low industrial output was incorporated. This forecast assumes a slow recovery beginning in mid-2010 with modest increases in industrial output, along with improving residential construction activity durng 2010. By mid-20ll, industrial output has retured to normal level, residential construction picks up to 56% of the peak period reached in 2006. Residential construction additions average 80% of peak levels in the post 2011 period and do not reach peak levels until 2016. Commercial construction is expected to lag growth in residential and industral activity and exhibit tepid growth until the 2012 timeframe. Refer to the spreadsheet "StafCPR _009 Attachment A.xls" for monthly and pro forma anual data and chart. 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(509) 495-4124 REQUEST: Please provide a listing of all A vista proceedings currently before other regulatory agencies/jursdictions. Please include within your response a description of the proceedings, its current status and docket number or other referencing information. RESPONSE: In the State of Washington the following proceedings are currently ongoing; Docket No. UE-1 00513, 2009 Energy Recovery Mechanism anual review fied 4/1/1 0 Docket No. UG-100468, Natural Gas General Rate Case filed 3/23/10, suspended 4/5/10 by Order No. 1 and consolidated with UE-1 00467 Docket No. UE-100467, Electric General Rate Case filed 3/23/10, suspended 4/5110 by Order NO.1 and consolidated with UG-100468 Docket No. UE- i 00176, 10-year Conservation Potential and Biennial Conservation Target for 2010 and 201 i, fied 1/29/10 Docket No. UE-091902, Affiliated interest filing between Avista Turbine Power and Avista Corporation filed 12/8/09 Docket No. UG-090015, Natural Gas 2009 Integrated Resource Plan filed 12/30109 Docket No. UE-081613, Electrc 2009 Integrated Resource Plan filed 8/31109 In the State of Oregon the following proceedings are curently ongoing; Docket No. LC 49, 2009 Natural Gas Integrated Resource Plan filed 12/30109 Docket No. UG 171, Compliance filing to Order No. 10-127 regarding the Senate Bil 408 Automatic Adjustment Clause fied 4/12/10