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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20240916AVU to Staff 9 - Attachment B.pdf Cost-effectiveness & Evaluation AdvisoryComm ttee Meeting Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance November 30, 2023 CLASSIFICATIO NLEVEL: PUBLIC neea Introductions • Name O Kganization Q Lestion(s) for today? 2 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Agenda • Welcome/Agenda Review • M RE Update ©Q • M arket Progress Evaluation Report Recap 00 BREAK Key Assumption Updates Q State Energy Code Assessment Introduction 00 Wrap Up 3 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Why are w e here again ? CEAC Charter Responsibilities Review and advise regarding NEEA cost-effectiveness and savings inform ation to inform annual reporting. Review and advise regarding m a-ket transform ation cost and savings m easurement and estim ation m ethods. Review evaluation findings that affect cost and savings inform ation to inform annual reporting. Work with your organization to provide NEEA staff with relevant incentive data for regional tracking and reporting purposes. Review and advise regarding new m arket research and evaluation methodologies. 4 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LEADERSHIP IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY AWARDS Join us for the hybrid cerem on ! y NEEA's Board and staff will recognize Rising Star individuals and team sfor their exem glary Innovative CollaborationLifetime Achievement dedication and performance in energy efficiency during the NEEA Board Annual M eeting on Decem ber 4. To RSVP* go to: neea.org/leadershipaw ands ©2023 Copyright NEEA. *in-person attendees m Lst RSVP by Nov. 17 Q Lick Updates 2024 CEAC Dates: Q 1 — Wednesday, February 28th Q 2— Tuesday, April 30th Q 3— Wednesday, August 28th Q 4— M cnday, Novem ber 4t" Dual Fuel Work G ioup 6 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. M arket Research and Evaluation (MfE) Update O kiectives ❑ C om mitee awareness of m arket research and evaluation activities 7 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. 20+ Market Research & Evaluation QuarterlyNe wsle tter ............................................... WHAT'S NEW: TABLE Hello everyone! / Welcome to another issue of NEEA's quarterly Market Research and Evaluation (MRE) newsletter. There are a number of studies underway, many of which will be posted At a Glance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 during the Q4 2023. Look for several market progress evaluation reports (MPERs) in the next few months, including the Luminaire Level Lighting Controls, Heat Pump Water Heater, Integrated Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Retail Product Portfolio, and Manufactured Homes MPERs. These are the annual mixed method evaluations that assess progress toward pre-defined market outcomes by measuring a set of market Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 progress indicators (MPIs). Earlier this year, the MRE team launched a combined MPER for two commercial HVAC programs — Codes, Standards, New Construction . 15 the electric High-Performance HVAC and natural gas Efficient Rooftop Units programs. The study will deliver individual evaluation reports to these two programs, but will create several efficiencies, Contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 such as combining recruiting and data collection efforts. And finally, NEEA recently contracted with Dr. Michael Harnar, Director of the Interdisciplinary PhD in Evaluation at Western Michigan University, to conduct an assessment of MRE's approach to the evaluation of Market Transformation programs. The final report from that assessment is available on neea.orQ. Amy Webb, Sr. Manager, Market Research & Evaluation -- E At • Glance MARKET RESEARCH PROJECTS r1I1L1IN1* PORTING* • • High-Performance HVAC: Market Progress Evaluation Report#1 Integrated Efficient Rooftop Units: Market Progress Evaluation Report#1Luminaire Level Lighting Controls: Market Sijng V/ SystemsLuminaire Level Lighting Controls: KeyAssumptions Review a Luminaire Level Lighting Controls: Market Progress Evaluation#2 '�°a BetterBricks: Commercial Building Market Research OExtended Motor Products: Market Progress Evaluation Report#1 V/ Products Efficient Fans: Fan System Market Characterization V/ Heat Pump Water Heaters: Installer Focus Groups V/ Heat Pump Water Heaters: Cold Climate Demonstration Installation Project a0�. Heat Pump Water Heaters: Market Progress Evaluation Report#7 �� V/ Retail ro uct Portfolio: Market Progress Evaluation Report °a V/ Motor-Driven Products: Commercia-SectorAdjustable-Speed Drive Market Research Study V/ ©2023 Copyright NEEA. At • Glance MARKET RESEARCH PROJECTS PLANNING' FIELDING* REPORTING* Standards, New Cod es, � Manufactured Homes: Transition Market Progress Evaluation Report V/ Construction Q Commercial Codes: Idaho Commercial New Construction Code Evaluation (D/ V/ Commercial Codes: Montana Commercial New Construction Code Evaluation V/ Commercial Codes and Residential Codes: Market Progress Evaluation Report#2J Q/© V/ Residential Codes: Idaho Residential Code Compliance Evaluation Q/a V/ Residential Codes: Oregon Residential Code Compliance Evaluation V/ Residential Codes: Montana Residential Code Compliance Evaluation V/ Standards: Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces and Mobile Home Furnaces Standard Evaluation V/ Standards: Battery Chargers Standard Evaluation V/ DUAL FUEL(Electric&Natural Gas)PROJECTS: 0/0 *PLANNING: MRE projects from inception through proposal selection *FIELDING:MRE projects from kick-off through the completion of field work NATURAL GAS PROJECTS: 0 *REPORTING:MRE projects in the analysis/synthesis stage through report posting _= . . .. TRACK M ARKET REVIEW LOGIC ADAPTIVE PROGRESS MANAGEMENT To review the To track m arket program logic To provide current progress indicators model and theory m a^ket intelligence and assess program for program effectiveness at of change adaptive overcom ng m a�agem eft barriers @2023 Copyright M a,-ket Progress Evaluation Report Recap NEEA Retail Product Portfolio (RPP) M xket Progress Evaluation Report #2 Findings M eghan Bean Sr. Market Research 8 Evaluation Scientist fl neea NEEA -s RPP Program Long-term objective: Manufacturers build energy efficiency into product designs for consumer goods RPP Interventions Em erging technology Midstream incentives M easurem ent and com Oiance Specification advancem ent Standards 14 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. NEEA 's RPP Program NEEA m ust partner with funders outside the Northwest so that the program is large enough to influence retailers and successfully advocate for updates to test procedures, federal standards, and EN ERG YSTAR® specifications 2016 2019 2021 NEEA joins the NEEA's RPP Program NEEA begins 2021 2023 national ESRPP m oaes into M arket facilitating the national RPP M PER #1 RPP M PER #2 program Developm ent ESRPP program Focus on 2020 program year Focus on 2021 program year • O O O 15 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. NEEA ESRPP M PER #2 Research O 4fectives Evaluate NEEA's revised RPP logic model Docum ent the status of m arket progress indicators (M Rs) in the Northwest in 2021 3 . Evaluate NEEA's assumption that participating retailer savings can be extrapolated to nonparticipating retailers 4 . Assess how m arket "shocks" affect sales of RPP-supported products in the Northwest 16 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. NEEA ESRPP M PER #2 Research O 4fectives 1 . Evaluate NEEA's revised RPP logic model Docum ent the status of m arket progress indicators (M Rs) in the Northwest in 2021 3 . Evaluate NEEA's assumption that participating retailer savings can be extrapolated to nonparticipating retailers 4 . Assess how m arket "shocks" affect sales of RPP-supported products in the Northwest 17 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Research O 4ective #2 Docum apt the status of m aket progress indicators (M R's) in the Northwest in 2021 M R Assessm ent M ethods Document review Internal NEEA strategy documents NEEA RPP M PER #1 Published evaluations of NEEA and partners' influence on test procedures and ENERG YSTAR® specifications Sales data analysis 19 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. 0 Market Progress Indicators (M Rs) by Product - 2021 Key M Rs differ for each product year-to-year based on the current strategy Federal ESRPP qualification ESRPP- (or higher tier) Test procedures m him um in assortment and qualified product qualifying are im • • - • standard marketing decisions tiers increases increases Refrigerators X xx Freezers X xx Clothes washers X X Clothes dryers X X Room ACs X x Televisions X 20 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Market Progress (M • Product Clear progress M ked or lim ted progress 0 Progress stalled Retailers consider Market share of ENERG YSTAR Federal ESRPP qualification ESRPP- (or higher tier) Test procedures m nim um in assortment and qualified product qualifying are improved standard marketing decisions tiers increases criteria increases increases Refrigerators Clothes Clothesdryers Room • Televisions @2023 Copyright Research Objective # 3 Evaluate NEEA 's assum Ilion that participating retailer savings can be extrapolated to nonparticipating retailers 22 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Background NEEA assum es that participating retailer sales can be extrapolated to nonparticipating retailers in the Northwest Is there evidence that NEEA's assumption is false? M ethods Literature review Review of participating and nonparticipating retailer website pricing and brand information for ENERG YSTAR products 23 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Website Analysis Methods 8 cities in the Northwest Idaho: Boise & Idaho Falls/Pocatello M cntana: Billings & M ssoula - O iegon: Portland & Bend - Washington: Seattle & Spokane Participating (Best Buy, Hom a Depot, Lowes, Nationwide M arketing G ioup) & nonparticipating retailers Collected data on the lowest priced ENERG YSTAR product available 24 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Findings Literature supports the assumption that ESRPP influences non- participating retailers For refrigerators, clothes washers, and clothes dryers, there is evidence that the program influences non-participating retailers Not enough inform etion available for freezers and room ACs 25 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Findings Nonparticipating and participating retailers offer sim lar pricing for ENERGY STAR products. $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 S $2,000 • Retailer Type • Nonparticipating i Participating $1,500 • • $1,000 • $500 • $0 Dryers Freezers Refrigerators Room ACs Washers 26 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. R earch Objective #4 Assess how m a-ket `shocks" affect sales of RPP- supported products in the Northwest Market Shocks Assessed CO M D-19 waves CO MD-19 stimulus checks - Tern perature • Housing • Wages Air quality • Energy prices • Unem Ooym ent rates 28 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Findings • CO MID-1 9 waves CO MID-1 9 stimulus checks Tern pe ratu re • Housing • Wages • Air quality • Energy prices • Unem Ooym ent rates 29 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Findings Te m pe ratu re Spike in room AC sales during the 2021 heat dom e event M arket share of ENERG YSTAR m odels rem wined constant 4 retailers had stocked large quantities of efficient m odels CO MD-19 stimulus checks Refrigerator sales jum ped concurrently with stim plus checks Difficult to determ he whether stim Pius checks were a key contributor 30 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. KeyFindings & Recom m endations 31 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Key Findings & Recom m mdations NEEA should consider additional research to investigate barriers to increased adoption of. . . Top-loading clothes washers Heat purr ps dryers TRC found no evidence that NEEA should change its approach to extrapolating savings to the full m arket 32 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. eghan Bean Sr. M cTket Research & Evaluation Scientist bean@neea.org ® Bonneville QCnscMnE.�. o� EnergyTrust `�R, North�esFt►1e�rriy CHELAN COUNTY `"-"•ae`S of Oregon ncoxo comww "' neea -� (,) N W Natural' PACIFIC POWER rtland General SOUND I; C'ty Light �V T i / Electric ENERGY aPOWER ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Lum inaire Level LightingControlsI WI _ > LLLC M PER #2 � C Zdanna King M RE Scientist zking@neea.org CLASSIFICATIO NLEVEL: PUBLIC ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC MFER #2 LLLC capabilities LLLC M arket Transform etion G cal Research and Evaluation Q Lestions M ethods Conclusions & Recom m e9dations 35 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC MFER #2: LLLC Capabilities LLLC: Are networked connected lighting system sy Have at least 1 sensor per lum naire, and Feature: O c�upancy sensing emly EMBEDDED CONTROLS �o xenof fxMAH Continuous daylighting High end trim Gpbhns> Asset Tracking 36 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Q LLL C M FER #2: M arket Transform ation G ail To create a m Erket where LLLC are the standard practice for corn m Efcial buildings in the Northwest ( including new construction , m for renovations , and lighting retrofits ) . Q LLLC MFER #2: Barriers to LLLC LLLC MFER #2: LLLC Program Strategy Addressing barriers by supporting: • Product specification Development of utility incentive programs Updates to relevant codes • Trainings for m erket actors • Development of case studies highlighting value proposition And by working with: Trade and industry associations to educate m ern bers M anufacturers to prom ote LLLC in their regions 39 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M FER #2: E&R Q uestions Does NEEA program strategy align with predicted m arket changes? 2 What changes are happening , relative to NEEA's predicted outcom es? What insights can NEEA gain into the current lighting m arket? 11 What are decision-m akers valuing and not valuing about their purchase and use of LLLC? 40 �023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M FER #2: Methods Participant Sum m ary • • # of Participants M arket Actor Surveys: M anufacturers 4 M anufacturer Representatives 7 Distributors 1 Design/Specifying Company Reps 27 Installation Company Reps 30 Decision-m aker Interview s 8 Alliance Utility Program Managers 5 NEEA LLLC Program Staff 3 41 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC MPER #2: How Each Q Address by Methods M .?rket Decision- N E EA Staff Review Utility ' uestion Actor ber Program Program Survey Interview s Website Interview s Strategy M anager 1) Strategy Alignment? X X 2) Progress Tow a-ds X X X O Ltcom es? 3) Lighting M arket X X Intelligence 4) Decision-M *er X Values & Experiences 42 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M FER #2: Conclusions NEEAA*s program m adifications have kept pace with LLLC m a-ket changes and continue to advance LLLC m arket share. 43 1 �023 Copyright NEE4. LLL C M FER #2: Conclusions NEEA 's efforts to advance LLLC have resulted in progress in several aspects of the LLLC m arket. 44 1 C=Y2023 CODYri9M1t NEE4. L L L C M PER #2: 3 Short-Term O dcom e5 Achieved Table 2. 2022 Estimated Value for LLLC MPis Assessed in MPER 2 Expected LLLC Program LLLC Program MPI MPI 2021 Estimated MPI 2022 Estimated Outcome(LogicModel) Outcome I (short term) 1. Utilities support LLLC IA. Utilities establish LLLC 10 programsa (of 12 11 programs(of 12 through programs with incentive programs possible) possible) incentives Outcome II(short term) 2A. DLC regularly reviews the Achieved Achieved—no changes 1. DesignLights Consortium LLLC QPL (DLC) maintains a Qualified Products List (QPL) 2B. DLC regularly reviews LLLC Achieved Achieved—no changes 2. Specification continues to specification and updates advance 45 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC M FER #2: 3 Short-Term O dcom es Achieved Expected LLLC Program LILLC Program MPI MIN 2021 Estimated MIN 2022 Estimated ■utcome (Logic Model) Outcome VII (short term) 7A. LLLC is an Optional 1. LLLC is an optional path in Compliance Path in Achieved Achieved—no changes Washington code, and LLLC is Washington code referenced in the 2018 76. LLLC ins referenced in the International Energy Achieved Achieved—no changes Conservation Code(IECC) 2018 IECC 46 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M PER #2: 1 Short-Term O dcom a was the Same ProgramExpected LLLC Model)Outcome (Logic Installation Installation Outcome IV (short term) 4A. The percentage of lighting companies: companies: 1. Increase in supply-chain installation companies and the 78% (n=179) 78% (n=33) awareness among trade allies companies with lighting Designer/ Designer/ designers/specifiers who are and lighting designers specifier companies: specifier companies: aware of LLLC 68% (n=86) 82% (n=31) 47 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC M PER #2: Notable Progress in 2 Short-Term O dcom es ProgramExpected LLLC i Model) LLLC Program MPI Outcome (Logic 3A. Manufacturers with LLLC All manufacturers All manufacturers products on the DLC QPL offer interviewed had LLLC interviewed had LLLC LLLC training to at least one trainings with at least trainings with at least type of supply-side market one supply-side one supply-side actor market actor (n=7) market actor(n=4) Outcome III (short term) 3B.The percentage of lighting 1. Manufacturers formalize installation companies with at 32%c 71% and provide LLLC training least one installer trained in (n=66) (n=32) 2. Lighting Design Lab provides LLLC LLLC training 3D. The percentage of lighting 3 NEEA's NXT Level training installation companies with the 66% 71% includes LLLC capability to bid on a project (n=145) (n=33) that involves LLLC installation 3E. Percentage of companies ID(n=20): 57% with at least one LLLC-trained Not assessed in MPER MT (n=8): 46% installer in each stateb 1 OR (n=23): 69% WA (n=24): 73% 48 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC M PER #2: Notable Progress in 2 Short-Term O dcom es ProgramExpected LLLC Model)Outcome (Logic 5A. The percentage of companies with lighting designers/specifiers who have 44% 63% Outcome V (short term) recommended LLLC to a (n=75) (n=27) decision-maker for at least one 1. Lighting designers and � project specifiers recommend LLLC solutions SB.The percentage of companies with 35% 61% designers/specifiers who say (n=78) (n=27) they have written LLLC into at least one project plan 49 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M PER #2: Baseline for Last Short-Term O dcom e Expected LLLC Program LLLC Program MPI MPI 2021 Estimated MPI 2022 Estimated Outcome(Logic Model) Value Value 6A. Manufacturers say compared to the previous year, for at least one of these fixture types—low-bay, high-bay, Not assessed in MPER 4 of 4 manufacturers Outcome VI (short term) recessed can, & retrofit kits— 1 Manufacturers increase the they have increased the n number of product types with umber of products available with embedded controls embedded controls. 66. Sales reps say there are sufficient types and styles of Not assessed in MPER 5 of 7 manufacturer's fixtures with embedded 1 representatives controls to meet their customers' needs 50 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLLC M PER #2: G iow h in O ne M edium -Term O dcom e Model)Expected LLLC Program LLLC Program MPI MPI 2021 Estimated MPI 2022 Estimated 9A.The percentage of installation companies that report having installed at least 61% 63% one LLLC system (i.e., (n=159) (n=32) Outcome IX (medium term) "experienced installation 1. LLLC is accepted as the firms") easiest-to-install lighting 9B.The percentage of controls solution experienced installation 43% 74% companies that say LLLC (n=59) (n=21) systems are easier to install than other NLC systems 51 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. I I ■ Baseline . • ed Expected LLtC'�rogram N1P12023 Estimated MPI 2022 Estimated 22113.Year-over-year Outcome X1 (medium term) LLLC Program �llPl Outcome (�ogit Model} Vdlue Value improvement purchasedIncrease in decision-maker level reported by customer- 1 6 of 8 respondents selection of LLLC systems side decisionmakers who have LLLC 6 of 8declsion-makers 2declsion-makers said their LLLC systems encountered system issues worked very well (but have been resolved) is• • •v• Issues with system programming and '"' control � v Issues with system durability and • • operation .- @2023 Copyright JU LLL C M FER #2: Program on track ✓ Assessed M Pls for Outcom es 1 — 7, and 9 & 11 ✓ Outcom es 114 2 & 7 achieved Notable progress for Outcom e5 and parts of 3 & 9 ✓ Maintained levels for Outcom e4 and parts of 3 & 9 ✓ Attained baseline for Outcom es 6 & 11 and part of 3 53 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Ij LLL C M FER #2: Conclusions Additional insights into the m arket - 1 out of 5 installers felt less than confident selling LLLC ■ Even though incremental costs com pared with non-controlled lighting has com edown by 44% since 2017, first cost is still the perceived as the first barrier by installers & designers Over half of installers & designers indicated that LLLC sales had increased 54 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M FER #2: Conclusions Additional inform anon about decision-m ckers Reasons for upgrading lighting included energy savings, im proved quality of light, enhanced control, and meeting code requirements during retrofits. After installation, respondents were m cst likely to share that they valued networked capabilities, zoning, individual addressability, and occupancy sensing. 55 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. LLL C M FER #2: Program is on track for m arket transformation goal as barriers being addressed 9► 9► ➢ L LLC is becom ng less expensive com pared to non-controlled lighting ➢ IVb re downstream m arket actors have received training in LLLC, are recom m aiding it to others, and are including � g g it in their project plans ➢ W nufacturer representatives reported m ore LLLC product types available compared to previous year ➢ Nb re installers & designers are 56 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. knowledgeable about the value proposition � Q Lestions? Thank you! ® Bonneville QCAscnnE,d�.._ Clark ��� �I a Ro om�nv ���� Public Ener Trust ���Q�1F�I�0p NorthWesteni CHELAN COUNTY UtilitieSV of Oregon _f OWER. E—gy SeattIe neea NW Natural® �PACIFICPOWER /Port and General ' S UND I� City T-t Electric ®ENERGY ���777� TACOMAPOWER ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Novem ber 30, 2023 Heat Pump Water Heater 7th M arke t Progress Evaluation Report High Level Findings Anu Teja, M RE Senior Scientist 1 M PER 7 O 4fectives Ensuring that logic m odel is Review_ Addressing M Rs related to high reflective of program theory priority m arket barriers towards M arket Transformation. - - MPER7 • Sizing Tracking consumer awareness per Conducting a review of the m arket the Boring but Efficient Campaign size using historical trends from 2021 & M PER 7 primary data collection. (NEEA did not receive 2022 m anufacturer sales and ©2020 Copyright NEEA. shipments data•) Some of this Year's Research Efforts Key Research Activities • R eview of current logic m oriel Activities • E stim le size of HPW H m a-ket can vary • S urvey water heater installers including those installers. • S urvey of general consum e-s • S crape retailer websites for stocking practices 3 1 ©2022 Copyright NEEA M PER 7 takeaw ay s on the M arket •Though now Water heaters not Retailers are still Market Sizing Efforts Strong foundation for F�ai liar w/HPW Hs, top of m nd for critical players in Estim ate that the HPW H adoption in installers still don't consum a pushing HPW Hs total num her of the m aketplace recom m ad them C onsum a forward: HPW Hs in the region • I nstallers express for all hom es survey T hey play a key is 23,000 installs favorable opinions C all backs pose indicates that role in the DIY (new & existing a concern W Hfailure m a-ket(59% of construction) • C ost concerns or breakage consum e-s said This equates to prevail result in need they purchased via about 15% of to purchase a retail channels) m arket share in the new unit. NW 4 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. r Third Party C m trac for R ocommehda tions • Continue to engage with installers to overcom ethe barriers that lim t installer recom m edations, em power them to address their head-on concerns. • Coordinate "sim Oer quality installations" to instill confidence. • 1 ncrease visibility of HPW Hs in retail stores & their online channels. • Adjust logic model to better track consum er awareness and purchase of H P W Hs • Other suggestions are provided in the report 1 ©2020 Copyright NEEA. On-going Program A c,t vities towards Market Transformation • Continuing to grow consumer awareness of HPW Hs in the region. • Efforts include digital m a-ket awareness cam paigns in both urban and rural m a-kets. • Developing educational trainings and real-life installation scenarios to address current needs of installers in the region. • H elps to boost confidence to ensure they can tackle m cre com Oex installations as needed. • Increased efforts to engage with retailer channels is underway, to advance HPW Hvisibility am cng potential purchasers. 1 ©2020 Copyright NEEA. Preparing for MFER 8 RFP & selection of new contractor in Q3 2024. M PER 8 activities start in Q4 2024 th ru Q2 2025. y • ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Q Lestions? Thank you! ® Bonneville QCAscnnE,d�.._ Clark ��� �I a Ro om�nv ���� Public Ener Trust ���Q�1F�I�0p NorthWesteni CHELAN COUNTY UtilitieSV of Oregon _f OWER. E—gy SeattIe neea NW Natural® �PACIFICPOWER /Port and General ' S UND I� City T-t Electric ®ENERGY ���777� TACOMAPOW!R ©2023 Copyright NEEA. BREAK 67 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. KeyUpdatesAssum ion 68 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. 2,Q4 Key Assumptions Quarterly..Report ............. ........... ........- WHAT'S NEW: TABLE OF i 0 Greetings from the NEEA Data, Planning and Analytics team! Integrated Systems . . . . . . . . . . . 2 In this report, NEEA staff have assumption updates for High-Performance Windows, Products . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . ... 3 Heat Pump Water Heaters, HVAC Data Collection, and Advanced Heat Pumps. NEEA staff will present on these assumption updates at the upcoming Q4 Cost Effectiveness Advisory Committee (CEAC) meeting, which takes place on November 30, 2023. As always, committee members can access the full set of assumptions for each reporting year on NEEA's Funder Portal. Stephanie Rider, Director of Data, Planning&Analytics Available in m eeting packet and at Questions about this report may be addressed to: h ttps://neea.org/portaI/savings-reports Stephanie Rider • Director of Data,Planning and Analytics srider®neea.org DATE:69 � ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Heat Pump Water Heaters - New Construction Update • WSEC 2018 Residential Code Evaluation Study was finalized and published in July 2023 - Significant increase in percentage of hom es using electric water heating over hom es built under WSEC 2015, from 37% to 89% O fhom es using electric water heating, m cre than 90% had installed a heat pum p water heater • New construction m erket channel estim ekes have been updated - Regional estim ates of HPWH installed in new construction increased from 49% to 77% for 2022 These estim etes are corroborated by distributor data provided to NEEA 70 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Heat Pump Water Heaters - Regional Market Forecast Regional Units - Annual Report 2022 • Data provided by distributor and � 50 retail partners shows a declining 40 trend in sales from Q 42022 = 30 through Q 22023 20 • Forecast estim etes have been 10 IN adjusted to anticipate a year of 20212 022 2 023 2 024 2025 flat sales growth within the Regional Units - Updated Forecast region for 2023 (n 50 • Forecasts have also been � 40 adjusted to account for slower = 30 than estim eted growth in the 20 replacem ent m arket channel 10 2021 2 022 2 023 2 024 2025 71 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. ■ Existing Construction ■ New Construction Heat Pump Water Heaters - Savings Preview Approximate-I HPWH Savings Construction Washington Combined • . - Savings Annual Annual Annual Year Report 2022 Updated Report 2022 Updated Report 2022 Updated 2023 4 .5 - 6.0 3 .5 - 4.5 (-24%) 1 .0 1 .5 (+50%) 5.5 - 7.0 5 .0 - 6.0 (-12%) 2024 5 .0 - 7.0 4 .0 - 4.5 (-29%) 1 .5 2 .5 (+67%) 6.5 - 8.5 6 .5 - 7.0 (-10%) 2025 6 .0 - 8.5 4 .0 - 5.5 (-34%) 1 .5 2 .5 (+67%) 6.5 - 10.0 6 .5 - 8.0 (-12%) 72 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. State Energy Code Assessment Introduction Evaluation of NEEA Im pacts , Allocated to Idaho Power Corn pany and Avista Utilities within the State of Idaho - Background and i�1 I Recom mendations Cost Effectiveness and Evaluation Advisory Comm ttee Novem ber 30, 2023 Becca Yates, Executive Director Susan Hermenet, VP, Analytics, Research & Evaluation s ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Ix' "` Today's Agenda Background — Idaho Evaluation NEEA Board Expectations Role of C EAC Process and Milestones 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Tim eline of Events August 13, 2021: In the proceeding regarding Avista's 2018-2019 Energy Efficiency Expenditures, the Idaho Public Utilities Com m$sion ordered Avista to conduct a separate EM &V for NEEA to be included in the next DSM filing. December 27, 2021: In the proceeding regarding Idaho Power's 2020 DSM expenses the IPUC ordered Idaho Power to conduct and independent evaluation of NEEA's EM &V practices. M arch 15, 2022: Idaho Power files an application for 2021 expenses and states they are working with Avista to put together an RFP for a third-party evaluator, expecting results by the end of 2022. O dober 20, 2022: NEEA staff received first data request from ADM ,the third-party evaluator April 7, 2023: NEEA received letter and draft evaluation report from Avista and Idaho Power April 24, 2023: NEEA staff m et with Executive Com mitee to discuss recom m e9dations & draft response M ay 4, 2023: NEEA provided response to recom m endations and report to Idaho Power and Avista • M ay 17, 2023: ADM ,Avista, Idaho Power and NEEA team s m eet to discuss NEEA response M ay 17-early June 2023: NEEA provided additional data/inform ation to ADM June 14, 2023: Avista, Idaho Power and NEEA staff share top-line findings from report with NEEA Board ©2023 Copyright'NEEpY. 12, 2023: Final report posted with case files including the addendum to the evaluation report Recommendations w th minimal impact on NEEA operational costs 1�, E escription NEEA Response #1 R equest NEEA to report annual savings via service territory methodology. S tandard offering since 2010, at the request of a funder. #2 R equest that annual savings reports include estim ates of adm nistrative costs, incentive costs, and Im pact on labor cost to non-incentive costs by service territory. produce cost estimates specific to Idaho. #4 T rack progress for each code change relative to adm nistrative dollars spent towards state level Im pact on labor cost to codes and associated energy savings accrued by each state-level code. produce report specific to Idaho. #5 D etail m easure-level values as accurately as possible, and that each field is oDm{deted in the This is NEEA's current workbook to allow for year-over-year tracking of regional units, baseline snits, retirem Ent units and practice. unit energy savings over tim e #6 This is NEEA's current and total rorrieRal i mi+c. (Eyali later rocninde d in li Re a ddeR di im l practice. #8 C om Idete third-party influence evaluations for all federal standards claim ed by NEEA, as well as This is NEEA's current any future standards in which NEEA hopes to claim savings for the future. Using quantitative practice. estimate of influence calculate a naturally occurring baseline for each standard. Recommendation #9 Complete influence evaluations for each code update to estimate NEEA's qualitative and quantitative influence towards the code update, or, alternatively, incorporating a quantitative method for isolating incremental savings due to NEEA-specific efforts approved by a third-party evaluator. The highlighted text was added as part of the June 15t" addendum . NEEA's Response: - NEEA conducts 3rd party influence evaluations for all of its m arket transform ation work, including state energy codes. NEEA does not attem pt to develop a quantitative influence score for m a-ket transform ation work which would be used to report energy savings. - NEEA does develop a 3rd party quantitative influence score for a stream of opportunistic work for some federal standards work which is used to report energy savings. ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Board Direction: Conduct a review of evaluation methods for state energy code w ark. Description : NEEA conducts a review of evaluation m ethods with a third-party review. Results and recom m eidations are reviewed through the Cost Effectiveness Advisory Comm ttee: - Em beds process within NEEA's current operating parameters. Honors NEEA's regional collaborative approach. Any additional evaluation costs capped at $500K for the business cycle. 79 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Board Parameters Staff provide quarterly status to Board of Directors Evaluation methods be reviewed and supported by CEAC and approved by NEEA Executive Director. M ust not exceed $500K over the five-year business cycle. Budget would be either absorbed within current draft C7 budget or added to. If absorbed in current draft budget, staff would look for trade-offs to bring forward as part of annual O perations Planning. 80 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Potential Implications: Conduct a review of evaluation methods for state energy code w ark. Resource burden for CEAC — tight timeline. • Possible im Oications to other NEEA core M arket Transform ation %Rork. Im pact to other funders, including reported energy savings. Operations planning trade-offs. • Uncertain outcom e. 81 1 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. O dcom es and O 4fectives to Address Recommendation #9 O Ucom e Develop a recom m eidation for a fram eNork for evaluating state energy codes that is m cst applicable to M arket Transform ation and NEEA's current fram eNork for reporting energy savings. O Oectives: Assess the current evaluation approach to state energy codes. Explore alternative fram eNorks for evaluating and reporting energy savings associated with state energy codes. 82 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. CEA C Process & Tim eline 06 Eff— M Q 42023 Provide background and process. Nov. 30. Q 12024 Provide an overview of the work NEEA does to influence state energy codes, including how it Feb 28 compares to its work in influencing federal standards. Provide current state of evaluation approaches used to evaluate state energy codes, federal appliance standards work, and other federal standards work. Q 22024 Review approach and key assumptions used in estimating and reporting energy savings from state April 30 energy codes work. Present draft approaches with an opportunity for discussion and feedback, including early assessm Ent from the 3rd party evaluator. Q 32024 Present refined draft approaches with 3rd party evaluator assessm Ent. Aug 28 Staff provides initial recom m (ndation. Q 42024 Staff provides final recom m aidation with im plications. Nov 4 83 Staff will also address if this recom m endation would need to be tested before full im plem Entation. I Q uestions ? TaCiETIIEK We Are Transforming the Northwest ■O_ . N[ V L l[ CASCADE C18I'XC /1 co 'All RA�GAs Pu c v '� � EnergyTrust �C,' Grant ap • • CHFIAN COUNTY v�`�� of Oregon rrNorthWes-terri ,� N W N a t u r a I' ®PUGET SOUND ENERG9' - hn owcouP comp.�y �PACIFIC POWER 451 Seattle CityL*ht .ie,, A.POWER Upcoming Meeting Topics Q 1 - February 28, 2024 To OPZc Update: State Energy Code Assessment *IY 911/e S� Q 2- April 30, 2024 s? • Savings and Cost-effectiveness O \,erview • Annual Reporting • Update: State Energy Code Assessment • Key Assumption Updates 85 ©2023 Copyright NEEA. Meeting Wrap-up How was your experience? • Public Comm elt? Upcom ng Meetings: February 28, 2024 • Feedback: - O �erall Agenda Packet M eterials What went well? What needs work? ©2023 Copyright NEEA.