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HomeMy WebLinkAbout20240828Compliance Filing with Distribution Risk Tree Program Report.pdf RECEIVED Wednesday, August 28, 2024 IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION 11 Avista Corp. 1411 East Mission P.O. Box 3727 Spokane. Washington 99220-0500 Telephone 509-489-0500 Toll Free 800-727-9170 Via Electronic Mail August 27, 2024 Commission Secretary State of Idaho Idaho Public Utilities Commission 11331 W. Chinden Blvd. Building 8, Suite 201-A Boise, Idaho 83702-5983 RE: Case No. AVU-E-23-01, Avista Wildfire -Distribution Risk Tree Program Report Avista Corporation, dba Avista Utilities (Avista or the Company), hereby submits its third-party Avista Wildfire - Distribution Risk Tree Program Report, per Commission Order 35909 in Case No. AVU-E-23-01, at page 15,paragraph 14: 14. Wildfire Resiliency Plan. The Settling Parties agree to the following Wildfire Resiliency Plan ("WRP") changes: (a) For the Distribution Risk Tree program, the Company will have a third party conduct a study, within a year of Commission Order, to see what the most efficient vegetation management cycle should be in their service area (i.e., 2- or 3- year cycles). If you have any questions regarding this filing, please call me at (509) 495-8601 or by email at liz.andrews@avistacorp.com. Sincerely, /s/Elizabeth Andrews Elizabeth Andrews Senior Manager, Revenue Requirements Enclosures AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report Avista Statement of Approval In the 2023 Idaho Public Utilities Commission Case No. AVU-E-23-01 parties agreed to the following: For the Distribution Risk Tree program, the Company will have a third party conduct a study, within a year of Commission Order, to see what the most efficient vegetation management cycle should be in their service area (i.e., 2- or 3-year cycles). In accordance with this directive, the Company hired an external vegetation management evaluation service, Iapetus Infrastructure Services, to look at the key points of Avista's risk tree program, assess the optimum frequency of maintenance across the service area, examine our fire risk profile, compare our existing program to industry best practices, and to evaluate our strategies and their effectiveness. Their report is attached. In summary, Iapetus found that Avista's approach to managing the risk associated with utility-caused wildfires as an annual cycle is a reasonable and responsible approach and that Avista is using best-in-class practices in this area. They sited, as partial evidence of this, a reduction in actual tree fall-ins since the risk tree program began in 2020 of 62%. A summary of their investigations is shown below: Observation Comments Considering the impact that drought and tree mortality has had on forests in the Western United States, Risk Tree Avista has implemented an effective strategy to reduce the potential for utility-caused wildfires.As the Cycle Risk Tree Program matures,the inventory of risk trees identified and removed should continue to reduce in numbers as long as the goals and objectives remain in line with current standards.An annual cycle is consistent with best-in-class programs at other major utilities in the West. Avista has taken a comprehensive approach to identify and mitigate risk trees that pose a hazard to the Risk Tree overhead distribution system.This approach has a two-fold benefit of reducing the volume of trees that Strategy can potentially result in a utility-caused wildfire,as well as reduce the types of tree-related events that cause interruption of electrical service. Identifying By leveraging the industry-accepted UAA/ISA guide, Best Management Practices-Utility Risk Tree Risk Trees Assessment,Avista is utilizing the most current protocols in use today by North American Utilities to identify off-ROW risk trees that pose a hazard to the electrical grid and potentially pose a wildfire risk. Outage Avista should commit to studying the root causes of tree-related outages through accurate reporting and Investigations thorough post-outage investigations.A commitment to post-incident investigations does not mean every outage needs to be investigated;however,the more data,the better the analysis. We fully support their findings and have committed to the only recommendation they had for improvement, to perform a more thorough investigation and documentation of root causes for tree- related outages. Vern Malensky, Director Electrical Engineering Date: August 26, 2024 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report /II/�iiFVIMSTA Distribution Risk Tree Program MAY 2024 PROGRAM ASSESSMENT t Iapetus infrastructure services PREPARED BY: Adam Warf Dr. Philip Charlton Steve Hallmark Iapetus Infrastructure Services, LLC 3900 Essex Lane, Suite 775 Houston, TX 77027 LEGAL DISCLAIMER:Recommendations made in this report are for Avista's internal use only.IIS is not responsible for Avista's action(s)or inaction in response to these recommendations.Assumptions made by IIS in the composition of this report were made based upon information collected by and from Avista. Gaps in information are noted,but numbers may be skewed as a result of missing or inaccurate data provided. AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Executive Summary Introduction In 2020, Avista Utilities (Avista) began a risk tree inspection program on the distribution system. Trees meeting predetermined risk criteria are scheduled for tree maintenance within six months of identification. Its first full annual system assessment was completed in 2022. In June 2023, Avista agreed to the following terms with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (PUC): For the Distribution Risk Tree program, the Company will have a third party conduct a study, within a year of Commission Order, to see what the most efficient vegetation management cycle should be in their service area (i.e., 2- or 3-year cycles). In response to the Commission Order (the "Order") above, Avista contracted Iapetus Infrastructure Services ("IIS") to evaluate its current Distribution Risk Tree Program and provide recommendations for enhancing its approach to timing of inspections and subsequent mitigation measures. Assessment Process As directed by Avista, IIS performed a detailed review of Avista's Distribution Risk Tree Program to assess the optimum frequency of maintenance per service area (i.e., one-, two- or three-year cycles). All areas of review were made within the context of Avista's Wildfire Resiliency Plan. The team utilized the following process for this assessment: 1. Review Avista's Enhanced Vegetation Management and Wildfire Resiliency Plans. 2. Assess Avista's tree-specific performance including tree-related outage data and work completion records. 3. Interview Avista's Vegetation Management team. 4. Develop and document recommendations. Page 2 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Key Observations Avista has developed a Risk Tree Program leveraging their internal experience and history of tree outages and program performance, as well as collaboration with leading wildfire mitigation programs at electric utilities with more mature and robust programs. Based upon this review, the IIS team finds that Avista's approach to managing the risk associated with utility-caused wildfires as an annual cycle is a reasonable and responsible approach. IIS has identified the following major areas of focus to enhance the foundation of Avista's Risk Tree Program and become a more progressive, best-in- class program. Observation Comments Risk Tree Considering the impact that drought and tree mortality has had on Cycle forests in the Western United States, Avista has implemented an effective strategy to reduce the potential for utility-caused wildfires. As the Risk Tree Program matures, the inventory of risk trees identified and removed should continue to reduce in numbers as long as the goals and objectives remain in line with current standards. An annual cycle is consistent with best-in-class programs at other major utilities in the West. Risk Tree Avista has taken a comprehensive approach to identify and mitigate Strategy risk trees that pose a hazard to the overhead distribution system. This approach has a two-fold benefit of reducing the volume of trees that can potentially result in a utility-caused wildfire, as well as reduce the types of tree-related events that cause interruption of electrical service. Identifying By leveraging the industry-accepted UAA/ISA guide, Best Risk Trees Management Practices— Utility Risk Tree Assessment, Avista is utilizing the most current protocols in use today by North American Utilities to identify off-ROW risk trees that pose a hazard to the electrical grid and potentially pose a wildfire risk. Outage Avista should commit to studying the root causes of tree-related Investigations outages through accurate reporting and thorough post-outage investigations. A commitment to post-incident investigations does not mean every outage needs to be investigated; however, the more data, the better the analysis. Page 3 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Table of Contents ExecutiveSummary ........................................................................................................2 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 AssessmentProcess....................................................................................................2 KeyObservations......................................................................................................... 3 Avista Distribution Risk Tree Program............................................................................. 5 Wildfire Resiliency Plan................................................................................................ 5 FireRisk Profile............................................................................................................ 6 Risk Assessment Strategy........................................................................................... 8 Risk Tree Workload, Cost, and Tree Failure.............................................................. 10 IdentifyingRisk Trees............................................................................................. 10 Post-outage Investigations ..................................................................................... 12 Tree-related Outages................................................................................................. 13 Cycle Length and Objectives.................................................................................. 15 Historical Risk Tree Workload ................................................................................ 16 IISConsulting Team...................................................................................................... 18 AdamWarf................................................................................................................. 18 SteveHallmark........................................................................................................... 18 Dr. Phil Charlton......................................................................................................... 18 Page 4 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Avista Distribution Risk Tree Program Wildfire Resiliency Plan Wildfires are generally defined as "unplanned, uncontrolled fires fueled by an area of combustible vegetation" and, like all fires, require three fundamental elements to exist: fuel, oxygen, and heat. The fuel supply across North America has increased over the past few decades due to political policies around fire suppression and forest management, the introduction of non-native grasses, and dryer climates and droughts that left forests damaged by insects and disease. Oxygen often comes in the form of high winds that can spread the fires quickly. Sparks that initiate the fires are primarily generated by human activities and weather, but about 10% of wildfire ignitions are sparked by faults in electrical infrastructure or electric equipment failure.' In recent years, wildfires have emerged as a significant risk to public safety and to the bulk power system (BPS) assets that serve the Western Interconnection of North America. Wildfires initiated by electric utility infrastructure prompted the state of California to enact legislation in 2018 that required each electrical corporation, local publicly owned electric utility, and electrical cooperative to do two things: 1) construct, maintain, and operate its electrical lines and equipment in a manner that will minimize the risk of catastrophic wildfire posed by those electrical lines and equipment and 2) prepare and submit wildfire mitigation plans (WMPs) on an annual basis for review and approval by the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC). Recognizing the value of WMPs, a significant number of electric utilities outside of California in the Western US have voluntarily developed their own WMPs to identify and reduce their wildfire risk exposure. Both investor-owned and publicly owned utilities (e.g., municipal, cooperative, REA, and federal utilities) have developed WMPs as guiding documents to codify their risk reduction efforts as they relate to wildfires. Electric Utilities in the Western US with WMPs include: • Bonneville Power • Idaho Power • Northwestern Energy • PacifiCorp • Puget Sound Energy A WMP details a utility's initiatives and activities for reducing the risks of its lines and equipment igniting wildfires in the high fire risk areas of its service territory. The risks associated with the equipment vary depending upon several factors: age and condition, population density (ingress and egress), surrounding climate, terrain and vegetation, "Wildfire Mitigation Webinar Series." U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity.April 2021. Page 5 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities voltage class and type of construction, and policies and regulations around land/forest management. New technologies and increasing data capture have enabled companies to perform risk analyses at the asset level, allowing them to prioritize activities and develop initiatives for specific lines and equipment. This granularity provides for more effective and efficient mitigations. While each utility's risks are unique, general metrics for various aspects of the plan enable a utility to assess the outcomes and measure the performance of individual initiatives. Identifying plan successes and deficiencies ensures that the iterative development process is one of continuous improvement. In general, WMPs describe how the utilities' electric systems are designed, constructed, operated, inspected, and maintained to promote wildfire safety, prevention, mitigation, and recovery. Fire Risk Profile As identified in the Wildfire Resiliency Plan, Avista has committed to reducing fire risk to its communities, customers, and the company. Like other utility wildfire plans, Avista is making investments in four key areas: 1. Grid Hardening — to invest in electric line infrastructure to reduce spark-ignition outage events and protect critical assets from the impact of wildfires. This has become a key focus of utilities that are exposed to the highest probability of utility-caused wildfire ignitions, as well as protecting assets from any wildfire that encroaches on the utility's assets. Some examples include undergrounding, fire-resistant overhead construction materials (e.g. composite poles, or fire-retardant wrapped material on poles), as well as the use of tree wire and construction standards that reduce the failure potential of overhead lines. 2. Enhanced Vegetation Management — to inspect 100% of distribution line assets annually and combine remote sensing technologies such as LiDAR and satellite imagery to aid in overall vegetation management decision-making. Annual inspections of overhead electrical facilities in high fire risk (or high fire threat) areas of a utility's footprint are becoming commonplace, and in certain states a regulatory requirement. Such inspections take place for infrastructure (typically poles and hardware), as well as to identify hazardous trees. 3. Situational Awareness — to automate Avista's non-reclosing protection strategy and align short-term, weather-related fire risk with system protection levels. This is a basic tenet of a utility wildfire risk reduction effort. Seasonal adjustments to reclosure settings are an accepted standard for many utilities in high fire risk areas. Increasingly, remote switching at the sub-circuit level is being deployed to Page 6 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities isolate electrical facilities damaged by wildfire, as well as proactive de-energizing of line segments during high fire threat periods. It should be noted that proactive de-energizing is a very complex process for any utility to deploy, and requires significant buy-in among the utility, regulators, and customers. As documented in Avista's Wildfire Resiliency Report: "Avista has developed a computer algorithm to monitor, forecast, and adapt to fire-weather events. Avista's Fire Weather Dashboard combines the National Weather Service's 7-day forecast with Avista infrastructure data to quantify the daily fire risk on 350 distribution circuits. This allows system operators to align circuit protection settings with fire-weather conditions and minimize the potential for spark-ignition on a circuit-by-circuit basis. This monitoring system is similar to those used in California. In fact, Avista worked closely with San Diego Gas & Electric to calibrate the system to achieve a balance between electric service reliability and fire ignition potential. This monitoring system supports Avista's fire season circuit protection program known internally as Dry Land Mode." Observation: San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) has been at the forefront of managing wildfire risk and developed one of the most comprehensive utility wildfire management programs in the United States. Leveraging SDG&E's experience and knowledge is commendable. 4. Emergency Response & Operation — to help customers be better prepared for wildfires and partner with emergency first responders before, during, and after fire events. Emergency Response Plans are core to a utility's ability to effectively manage the complexities of any emergency, including wildfire. By actively engaging local and state agencies in the development and execution of a utility emergency response plan, all parties involved can perform at their highest level. In turn, the customers are best served with reliable information that keeps them informed and able to make informed decisions. These are core principles of a proactive Wildfire Mitigation Plan (WMP), which is the term typically used by most electric utilities in the Western United States. These principles provide focus for the utility on design and maintenance practices that can best reduce the risk of utility-caused wildfires, as well as establish clear operating procedures during periods of elevated wildfire potential. Avista has established a framework for a plan to identify and reduce risk from wildfire on their system. Page 7 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Risk Assessment Strategy For this report, IIS will focus specifically on the Risk Assessment Strategy as it relates to the Distribution Risk Tree Program. In 2019, Avista developed the initial wildland urban interface (WUI) map that combined data from the Wildfire Hazard Potential with the location of Avista electric lines in areas of low, medium, and high population. This analysis indicated that 3,240 miles of Avista's 7,725-mile distribution system were located in high fire threat districts (42% of the system). Avista's 2020 Wildfire Plan focused on grid hardening and vegetation programs in these elevated risk areas. In 2023, Avista's WUI map was updated and now includes additional data which measures the impact of fire on human development. The USDA's Housing Unit Impact dataset14 combined with the Wildfire Hazard Potential data mentioned previously, was used to refine the Avista WUI map. Areas shown on the 2023 WUI map with either an orange or pink highlight indicate these high fire risk zones. Communities like Chewelah and Colville border national forest lands, as do many other areas including Sandpoint, St. Maries, Grangeville, and portions of the Lewiston/Clarkston Valley, placing them more at risk. In total, 2,746 miles of electric distribution lines are in high fire risk areas or about 36% of the system. This analysis indicates slightly lower risk values as compared to 2019. The WUI map serves to identify and prioritize the areas of highest risk. The Avista WUI identifies three wildfire risk levels: Gr, dF_,,*, c Tier 1: Moderate levels of fuel and low to moderate housing densities (low) "C Tier 2: Moderate to high levels of fuel 03 and moderate housing densities (medium) Tier 3: High fuel levels and moderate to e high housing densities (high) rP � e Kenne,wck Page 8 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report ilapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities By overlaying the vegetation management polygons with the WUI map, the percentages of the polygon with a tier 3 (highest risk), tier 2, and tier 1 WUI designation were calculated. These percentages were then used to generate a risk score for each vegetation management polygon. A weight was applied to each of the WUI tier levels to ensure that tier 3 areas are placed at higher priority levels than WUI tiers with lower risk. The following table demonstrates how the overall risk weighting score for Avista is calculated on each vegetation management polygon. Table 1. Weighting calculation example for risk tree prioritization WUI Tier Weight applied Sample calculation CDA R P4 (WUI %) x weight 3 10 0.229 x 10 = 2.29 2 5 0.655 x 5 = 3.275 1 1 0.009 x 1 = 0.009 Overall risk score 5.574 In 2017, the California Public Utilities Commission adopted the CPUC Fire-Threat Map which describes the boundaries of a new High Fire Threat District (HFTD) where utility infrastructure and operations will have stricter fire-safety regulations. The CPUC Fire- Threat Map incorporates the fire hazards associated with past powerline wildfires and ranks fire-threat areas based on the risks that utility-associated wildfires pose to people and property. The main team that handled the development of the CPUC Fire-Threat Map was a group of utility mapping experts known as the Peer Development Panel (PDP), with oversight from a team of independent experts known as the Independent Review Team (IRT). The members of the IRT were selected by CAL FIRE and CAL FIRE served as the Chair of the IRT. The development of CPUC Fire-Threat Map includes input from many stakeholders, including investor-owned and publicly-owned electric utilities, communications infrastructure providers, public interest groups, and local public safety agencies. Additional intormation on C;alitornia's approach can be tound at the CCalitornia PUC Fire Safety Rulemaking Background webpage. The process that Avista has utilized to define Risk Tiers is comparable to the California approach utilized to delineate the High Fire Threat Districts. Page 9 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Risk Tree Workload, Cost, and Tree Failure Identifying Risk Trees Industry research has shown that the vast majority (80% or more) of tree-caused outages are a result of trees or tree parts falling from off the ROW. • On TransAlta's distribution system, where all overhangs were removed, 90-98% of tree-caused outages were due to tree failure 2 • Niagara Mohawk reported 86% of tree-caused outages result from trees outside the right-of-way 3 • Puget Sound Energy found 66% of all outages were caused by trees greater than 15 feet from the nearest conductor 4 • A survey of 71 utilities by the University of Wisconsin found about 81% of outages are due to off-ROW trees, broken branches, and whole tree failures rather than on-ROW grow-ins 5 Risk is the combination of the likelihood of an event and severity of the potential consequences. The Utility Arborist Association developed, and the International Society of Arboriculture published, the Utility Risk Tree Assessment best management practices which aid in the development of this tool. The likelihood a tree will cause an outage, damage utility infrastructure, or cause a wildfire is dependent on the likelihood that a) the tree will fail and b) the failed tree will impact the electrical system. Table 2. Likelihood matrix presented in the UAA//SA Utility Risk Tree Assessment Likelihood Likelihood of Impact on the System of Failure Very low Low Medium High Imminent Unlikely Somewhat likely Likely Very likely Probable Unlikely Unlikely Somewhat likely Likely Possible Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Somewhat likely Improbable Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely 2 Guggenmoos, S. 1996. "Outage statistics as a basis for determining line clearance program status." UAA Q. 5(1). 3 Finch, K.E., and C.Allen. 2001. "Understanding Tree-Caused Outages." EEI Natural Resource Conference.Apr. 2001. Palm Springs, CA. 4 Rogers, B.I. 2001. "Puget Sound Energy Tree Watch Program." EEI Natural Resource Conference,Apr. 2001, Palm Springs, CA 5 "Utility Vegetation Management in North America," College of Natural Resources, University of Wisconsin—Stevens Point, and CNUC. March 22, 2021. Page 10 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Tree risk rating is based on the likelihood of failure and impact combined with the severity of the consequence of impact. The severity of consequence will differ for 69kV vs 7.2kV, single- vs multi-phase lines, sections with and without special equipment, and so forth. Following is a risk rating matrix which combines these factors. Table 3. Risk Tree Rating Matrix presented in the UAA11SA Utility Risk Tree Assessment Likelihood of Consequence of Failure Failure & Impact Negligible Minor Significant Severe Imminent Low Moderate High Extreme Probable Low Moderate High High Possible Low Low Moderate Moderate Improbable Low Low Low Low The consequence assessment should reflect what portion of the system is involved (e.g., 69kV, multi-phase, single-phase) and Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) designation. Observation: By leveraging the industry-accepted UAA/ISA guide, Best Management Practices— Utility Risk Tree Assessment, Avista is utilizing the most current protocol in use today by North American Utilities to identify off- ROW risk trees that pose a hazard to the electrical grid and potentially pose a wildfire risk. Page 11 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Post-outage Investigations One of the greatest challenges facing UVM professionals is knowing which trees cause outages and how. Utilities cannot effectively manage a problem they do not understand. Not all tree species have the same failure rate. Not all portions of the system respond the same to tree contact (1- vs 3-phase) and the consequence of failure varies widely (e.g., 69kV vs 1-phase 7.2KV). Best Management Practices— Utility Risk Tree Assessment provides general guidance regarding risk factors, but best practices utilities collect utility-specific data through post-outage investigations. Utilities need to study the root causes of their specific tree-related outages to replace intuition, anecdotal evidence, and generalized industry data with reliable data. The Avista VM team does not currently investigate tree-related interruptions. Utilities that begin post-event investigation of tree-related outages initially find a 25-40% error rate in unaudited reporting. Observation: Avista should commit to studying the root causes of tree-related outages through accurate reporting and thorough post-outage investigations. A commitment to post-incident investigations does not mean every outage needs to be investigated; however, the more data, the better the analysis. Those selected for investigation should include incidents on all voltages, construction types, and in both storm and non-storm situations. They should also be timely—conducted close to the outage occurrence. The objective of these investigations is to understand which trees fail, how they fail, and how they impact the electrical system. These post-outage investigations should be performed by an experienced arborist to: • Give direct feedback on which trees are causing the majority of interruptions • Provide learning opportunities for the arborist • Refine assessment criteria These investigations should go beyond simply indicating it was a "tree-related event" to identifying distinct characteristics about the tree and the site surrounding it. The data can then be used to drive the risk tree mitigation process. Data collected during post- outage investigations often include: • Voltage • Orientation to the line • Line configuration (single-wire • Tree or tree part that failed primary, 2-wire primary, etc.) . Nature of failure (trunk failure, • Tree species branch failure, uprooted tree, etc.) • Height • Condition of tree or tree part failure • Diameter . Site conditions • Distance to the line • Date of last maintenance Page 12 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Tree-related Outages Since the full rollout of the Risk Tree Program, Avista has documented that more than 60% of the tree-related outages in Idaho from 2020 to 2023 occurred in Tiers 2 and 3. Tree-related Outages by Tier 400 a 350 6 300 ca 250 0 200 150 = 100 z 50 ■ Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 ■2020 2021 2022 2023 Note: Although the WUI map identifies three wildfire risk levels, Avista also collects outage data for Tier 0 (i.e., nominal risk with low levels of fuel). Over the past ten years in Idaho, 92% of spark-related outage events fall into five basic cause categories: animal, weather, public, tree, and equipment. Of these categories, electric utilities can have the most influence over reducing equipment- and tree-related events. Animal, weather, and public are much harder to predict and guard against. Spark-related Outage Events (2014-2023) Public 18% Weather 8% ■ Equipment 54% Tree 8% ■ Other ■ Animal 8% 4% Page 13 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities As covered previously under the Fire Risk Profile section of this report, Avista has identified Grid Hardening and Enhanced Vegetation Management as two of the four areas for reducing wildfire risk on the company's electrical grid. Additionally, research and industry data has shown the following: 1. Unless the distribution lines are entirely enveloped by vegetation, a shorter cycle seldom results in fewer tree-related interruptions.6 2. At distribution voltages (15kV and below), trees in incidental contact are unlikely to result in an electrical fault (phase-to-ground) causing an interruption. • Tree grow-ins represent only 2-14% of all tree-caused outages.',$ • At voltage gradients below 2kV per foot, the probability of a fault occurring is almost zero.g 3. Due to the above, almost all tree-related outages are caused by whole trees or limbs falling on the conductors and creating a phase-to-phase electrical fault or physical damage rather than by tree growth resulting in incidental contact with the lines.10 Observation: Avista has taken a comprehensive approach to identify and mitigate risk trees that pose a hazard to the overhead distribution system. This approach has a two-fold benefit by reducing the volume of trees that can potentially result in a utility-caused wildfire, as well as reduce the types of tree-related events that cause interruption of electrical service. 6 Guggenmoos, S. 1996. "Outage statistics as a basis for determining line clearance program status." UAA Q. 5(1). Rees, W.T., Jr., T.C. Birx, D.L. Neal, C.J. Summerson, F.L. Tiburzi, Jr., and J.A. Thurber. 1994. "Priority Trimming to Improve Reliability." ISA conference presentation, Halifax, NS. 8 Finch, K.E., and C. Allen. 2001. "Understanding Tree-Caused Outages." EEI Natural Resource Conference.Apr. 2001. Palm Springs, CA. 9 Russell, D. et. al. 2011. "Best Practices in Vegetation Management for Enhancing Electric Service in Texas." PUCT Project 38257. 10 Guggenmoos, S. 2003. "Effects of Tree Mortality on Power Line Security." Arboriculture & Urban Forestry, 181-196. Page 14 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Cycle Length and Objectives As currently designed and implemented, Avista's Enhanced Vegetation Management Program incorporates two primary components relative to management of vegetation on the overhead distribution system: Routine and Risk Tree. The Routine Maintenance Program emphasizes maintaining a five-year cycle for addressing the vegetation on the entire distribution system and preventing grow-in outages. To meet these objectives, the routine maintenance program prioritizes work based on time since last trim and number of grow-in related outages. The Risk Tree Program objective is to identify risk trees, with the potential of imminent fall-in or grow-in hazard to the energized facilities, and ensure they are trimmed or removed to eliminate potential for fire ignitions and outages. A risk tree is defined as visibly dead, diseased, dying, or possessing obvious structural defects that could fall into the conductor. The corresponding risk tree annual patrol identifies trees which are deemed a threat to reliability and pose a fire risk. The Routine Maintenance Program and Risk Tree Program are interrelated because risk inspections and mitigation are performed as part of routine maintenance if a polygon is on the routine plan for the year. This allows for planning and mitigation work to happen using the same planners and crews. While the Risk Tree Program and Routine Maintenance work planning and mitigation contracts are separate, this enables Avista to move crews between programs as needed to meet work plan objectives and gain efficiencies. Observation: Implementing an extensive risk tree assessment and mitigation program is a best practice today. This includes documenting the root cause of outages (e.g., which trees/conditions result in failure) and aggressively targeting higher risk, off-ROW trees (see previous reference). Important to note: The optimum cycle for preventing tree growth into the conductors may be different from the optimum cycle for off-ROW risk tree mitigation. Page 15 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities Historical Risk Tree Workload Beginning in 2020 when Avista implemented the system-wide patrol of the overhead distribution system, the annual volume of risk trees abated has increased year-over- year. Expenditures had initially shown an annual cost per tree increase for 2020-22, but a reduction in cost per tree in 2023. Idaho Risk Tree Expenditures 16000 $600 14000 $500 '0 12000 a) 10000 $400 fy 8000 $300 a� V) 6000 $200 v n 4000 121� 2000 $100 0 $0 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Risk Trees Completed Cost/Risk Tree Contributing factors include: • More than 90% of the U.S. West was in moderate drought or worse by late June 2021. More than a quarter was in exceptional drought, the highest level, indicating widespread risk of crop loss, fire, and water shortages." Moderate drought or worse Severe drought or worse —Extreme drought or worse —Exceptional drought IuC' 80 60 40 20 0 A . , - AAL .A 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Data as of June 24,2021 Chart:The Conversation!r -BY-ND-C:_urcr r,n_=,hAcrito,-�,nt-r,dsta 11 "National Drought Highlights Report," U.S. Drought Monitor, June 24, 2001. Page 16 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities • Trees in Western forests have been dying at an alarming rate over the past two decades due to droughts, high temperatures, pests, and fires.12 • Labor cost and availability has had a significant impact on utilities. Based upon Avista's experience in 2022, the increased volume of risk trees required mobilization of crews from outside the region to accomplish the workload. Conversely, by achieving a stabilized workforce in 2023, per unit costs decreased by 17%. To determine if a program is influencing system performance, one of the most valuable measures for a risk tree program is to show a reduction in the occurrence of actual tree fall-ins. For the evaluation period from 2020 to 2023, Avista has recognized a 62% reduction in tree fall-ins. Idaho Tree Events by Outage Type 350 300 v, 250 c > 200 w m 150 100 50 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 ■Tree Fall-In ■Tree Grow-in Observation: Considering the impact that drought and tree mortality has had on forests in the western United States, Avista has implemented an effective strategy to reduce the potential for utility caused wildfires. By maintaining the current annual cycle of identifying and abatement of risk trees, the inventory of risk trees identified and removed should continue to reduce in numbers so long as the goals and objectives remain consistent with current practices. By doing so, the annual cycle should continue to reduce the overall risk exposure from hazard trees. 12 Daniel Johnson and Raquel Partelli Feltrin, "Trees are dying of thirst in the Western drought," The Conversation, June 29, 2021. Page 17 of 18 AVU-E-23-01 -Avista Wildfire-Distribution Risk Tree Program Report iapetus infrastructure services Distribution Risk Tree Program Assessment for Avista Utilities IIS Consulting Team Adam Warf Mr. Wares experience includes leading business development strategies for a Q r utility vegetation management consulting firm, vegetation management field 1 , operations at two major investor-owned utilities in the southeastern US, project management at a variety of utilities in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern regions, and vegetation management program development and assessments across the country. His utility arboricultural experience provides a broad understanding of the many different methods used to create a successful utility right-of-way vegetation management program, including remote sensing, work management solutions, data analytics, optimization, and the utilization of third-party consulting foresters for planning and auditing duties. Steve Hallmark Mr. Hallmark serves in a senior leadership role to IIS' Chief Operating Officer, driving strategic solutions, innovation, and an entrepreneurial vision to power and energy companies. Mr. Hallmark has extensive experience managing large-scale utility vegetation management programs, including budget, regulatory compliance, and contract design and enforcement. Over the years, he has served in a leadership capacity on vegetation management issues and acted as a government and industry liaison. Most recently, he served as part of a team at the direction of the California Governor's Office overseeing PG&E's Wildfire Mitigation Program. With over 40 years of utility vegetation management and line construction practices experience, Mr. Hallmark is recognized as a highly qualified subject matter expert on a national level. Dr. Phil Charlton ,0 Dr. Charlton has worked with over 150 electric utilities in seven countries, helping to develop long-term vegetation management programs for distribution W line clearance and transmission rights-of-way maintenance. Most of these studies required detailed evaluation of the vegetation conditions, work practices, and operating procedures. Dr. Charlton has also been active in industry research since 1980. His research has encompassed cost and effectiveness issues related to rights-of- way maintenance, environmental concerns with use of herbicides, wetlands protection, reliability, and more. Page 18 of 18