20060210Gradilone direct.pdf

Dean J. Miller (ISB #1968)
McDEVITI & MILLER LLP
420 West Bannock Street
o. Box 2564-83701
Boise, ID 83702
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
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Attorneys for Applicant
BEFORE THE IDAHO PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
IN THE MA TIER OF THE APPLICATION
OF UNITED WATER IDAHO INC. FOR
AUTHORITY TO INCREASE ITS RATES
AND CHARGES FOR WATER SERVICE IN
THE STATE OF IDAHO
Case No. UWI-O6-
DIRECT TESTIMONY OF FRANK GRADILONE III
Please state your name and business address.
Frank Gradilone III, Pleasant Valley Analytics (PV A), 9 Crestfield Road, Boonton
New Jersey 07005.
Please state your educational and professional background.
I hold Master Degrees in Business Administration and in City and Regional
Planning from Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. As an undergraduate, I
majored in environmental studies and political science, and received a BA from the
State University of New York at Stony Brook.
While a graduate student in the City and Regional Planning program at
Rutgers University, I was a Research Associate at the Center for Urban Policy
Research where I was involved in a number of research projects for local
government agencies and organizations, and for the U.S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development. My responsibilities included survey research, computer
based quantitative analyses, and fiscal impact analysis. I am a contributing author to
the 1980, Center for Urban Policy Research publication entitled, The Adaptive
Reuse Handbook.
I have been a Licensed Professional Planner in the State of New Jersey since
June of 1981. I was a member of the Vernon Township (NJ) Environmental
Commission, and served as chairperson of that body from 1993 through 1995.
I have authored and presented a number of technical papers at national and
regional conferences in the field. These papers and presentations include: "
Perspective on Outdoor Water Conservation Programs at United Water , jointly
with R. Henning, United Water New Jersey and M. Cahoon, United Water Idaho, at
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
Conserv '99,Water Conservation Program for the Spring Valley Water
Company , Proceedings of Conserv ', Las Vegas, NV, 1993; "Seasonal Rates-
the Pros and Cons: A Case Study , a paper presented at the American Society of
Civil Engineers, Water Resources and Planning & Management 193 Conference, in
Seattle, Washington May 1993; Automatic Meter Reading for the Water
Industry, co-authored with Donald L. Sch1enger, American Water Works
Association Research Foundation, Denver, Colorado, 1992; "Some Questions on
Cost and Benefits of Rate Regulation " co-authored with Drs. Michael Crew and
Donald L. Schlenger, published in NA WC Water, Summer 1986; "Water
Conservation: A Case Study," a paper presented at the Water for the 21st Century
conference in Dallas, Texas, 1984; "Impact of SummerlWinter Differential Rate
Structure " a paper presented at the ASCE, Urban Water 1984 Conference in
Baltimore, Maryland; and the "AWWA Survey of Remote Metering Practices " a
paper presented jointly with Donald L. Schlenger at the 1984 A WW A Annual
Conference in Dallas, Texas.
Please describe your employment experience.
I was employed by United Water Resources (UWR), and its predecessor companies
from August 1979 through August 2005.
From 1979 to 1983 , I was a Special Projects Researcher in the Research and
Development Division of the Hackensack Water Company (now known as United
Water New Jersey). My responsibilities included research design and quantitative
analysis, system operation analysis, and survey research for the Company and its
Gradilone, DI
United Waterldaho
subsidiary, Spring Valley Water Company (now known as United Water New
York).
From 1983 through 1987, I was Manager of Demand Forecasting. My
responsibilities included demographic and economic forecasting, capital projects
planning, liaison with government agencies and regulatory bodies, and management
of research personnel.I also provided testimony before the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation on the need and timing for a proposed
reservoir and water filtration plant project for the United Water New York system
known as the Ambrey Project.
In 1988 I transfelTed to United Water Resources as Manager-Resources
Planning in the Regulatory Department for United Water Resources.In this
capacity, I was responsible for water demand, demographic and economic forecasts
for United Water s operating units.
With respect to my involvement in water demand forecasting, to date, I have
conducted basic research to determine the appropriate forecasting methods. I have
created forecasting databases, and I continued to provide long-range forecasts for
both United Water New York and United Water New Jersey. I produced short-run
water consumption and revenue forecasts for United Water Idaho in its last three
rate cases (UWI-97-, UWI-00-, and UW-04-04). I have also provided
short-run water consumption and revenue forecasts for a number of other United
Water operations including: United Water New York in its last two rate cases (NYS
PSC Case 92-0645 and Case 94-0486); United Water New Jersey (NJ BPU
Case WR-90080792J); United Water Toms River (NJ BPU Case WR-95050219);
Gradilone, DI
United Waterldaho
United Water New Rochelle (NYS PSC. Case 96-1168 and Case 99-0948),
United Water Florida (FPSC Case 960451-WS), United Water Delaware (DPSc.
Case 96-164), United Water Pennsylvania (PPUC. Docket No. R-00973947), and
United Water Arkansas (APSC Case 960451-WS).
In 2001 I took over the management of United Water s LeakGuard program.
LeakGuard, which has been offered in the United Water Idaho service area, provides
coverage for the repair or replacement of the customer owned portion of the water
service line connecting that customer s home to the water system. In addition to my
responsibilities here, I continued to provide the short run revenue forecasts for
United Water New Jersey and have had a continuing liaison with the United Water
M&S Rate Department on the revenue side of rate cases.
I resigned my position at UWR in 2005 to pursue alternate employment
opportunities as a consultant to the water industry. In this capacity I have been
retained by United Water Idaho to provide the revenue analysis for this regulatory
proceeding.
Could you describe your responsibilities in connection with this rate filing?
The purpose of my testimony is to present an assessment of revenues for metered
water sales, private fire protection service revenues, and other revenues for a base
year covering the twelve month period ended October 31 , 2005 for United Water
Idaho ("United Water" or "Company ), and to assess revenues that would be
realized on a pro forma basis for a test year period defined as May 31 , 2005 through
April 30, 2006.
How did you prepare these projections?
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
Separate assessments of metered water consumption and revenues were made for
each customer sector in the system; residential, commercial, and public authority.
Revenues for private fire protection services and other revenues were also analyzed.
This analysis, and supporting tables and figures detailing this assessment, is
contained in Exhibit 1 , Schedules 1 through 4.
What was the level of metered water sales for the base year in this case based on the
Company s financial records?
Base year metered water sales revenue for the twelve-month period ended October
, 2005 under existing tariff schedules totaled $29 399 223. Private fire protection
services for the base year were $527 417. Other revenue sources, including
miscellaneous revenues from customer fees and charges, rents, and unbilled
revenues totaled $317 732 for the base year.Overall as shown in Exhibit 1
Schedule 1 , Page 1 of 2, Column 1 , total revenue per the income statement for the
Company for the base year was $30 244 372.
Was it necessary to adjust the base year revenues as shown on the income statement
of United Water Idaho?
Yes. Unbilled revenues of $173 650 were deducted from the revenue stream since
once total billed consumption for the base year is assessed, all water used is priced
and assumed to be billed, and collected, during the pro forma test period. In
addition the amortization of revenues for the Carnage Hills system as stipulated in
IPUC Order No. 29625 was added to the revenue stream. The amount of this
amortization was set at $5 628 in revenues per year for a 5 year period starting in
2005.
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
Did you obtain a bill analysis for the base year period?
Yes.Overall, the level of revenue in the bill analysis for billed services to the
residential, commercial and public sectors in the base year was $47 141 more than
the books, or in percentage terms only 0.16%, as shown in Exhibit 1 , Schedule 1
Page 1 of 2, Column 4. Accordingly the bill determinants as per the bill analysis
were used as the basis for the analysis of metered sales in the United Water Idaho
system in the base year.
Did you have to make any adjustments to revenues as per the bill analysis to
normalize revenues for the test period?
Yes. These adjustments fell into three areas. First was a weather normalization, to
colTect for the impact of deviations in weather conditions from normal that affected
consumption in the base year. Second, was an adjustment to account for underlying
changes in the trend of water use per customer that have been precipitated by
community growth patterns, customer behavior changes and pricing. Third, were
adjustments to account for anticipated growth in the system through April 2006, to
ensure that pro forma revenues are in synch with the capital additions through the
end of the test year in this rate proceeding.
How did you proceed with the weather normalization and the change in usage
patterns due to the additions of new system areas and the change in irrigation water
regulations?
To assess the impact of theses factors on demand during the base year a detailed
analysis of the usage trends in the residential, commercial and public sectors in the
system was conducted.These analyses, which involved the use of multiple
Gradilone, DI
United Waterldaho
regression modeling of historical consumption patterns versus weather data, the
price of water and additions to the system are detailed in Exhibit 1 , Schedules 2
through 4 accompanying my testimony. As developed in this analysis a weather
normalizing adjustment of $909 512 was indicated for the base year. A $9 517
adjustment was indicated for the trend factor.
Could you discuss the adjustments that were made to account for anticipated growth
through April 2006?
First, there were adjustments for anticipated growth in the number ofYes.
customers in the United system through April 2006. During the base year 2 278
residential customers were added to United system. An additional 1 013 customer
are expected to be added to the system through April 2006. For the commercial
sector 84 customers were added during the base year; and an addition 52
commercial customers are anticipated through April 2006. Based on existing rates
this represents $171 645 in additional revenues.
United Water Idaho received rate relief in August and September of 2005, how
did you assess the impact of these rate changes on pro forma revenue?
To assess the impact of these rate changes the bill determinants associated with
total adjusted test year were priced at the rates currently in effect in the United
Water Idaho service area. Pricing these bill determinants at current rates yields an
additional $1 794 644 in metered sales revenue. Total pro forma metered sales
revenues for the United Water Idaho for the 12 month period ending April 2006 are
therefore $32 331 682.
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
Could you please discuss your assessment of private fire service revenues for the
base year?
United provides private fire protection services to about 1,430 customers through
separate service lines and hydrants. Base year revenues for these services based on
data in the bill analysis were $523 723. Due to growth in the number of private fire
services anticipated through April 2006 an additional $10 066 in revenues were
added to the total to derive normalized base year private fire revenues of $533 789
the base year (Exhibit 6, Schedule 1 , Page 2 of 2, Column 5). Pricing these services
under the current rate schedule yield test year fire protection revenues of$568 417.
Could you please discuss your assessment of the proper level of Other Revenues
that should be considered on a pro forma basis for the base year?
Looking ahead the Company can be reasonably expected to receive revenues from
three additional sources-bulk water sales through hydrants, rents of water meters
to construction sites, and miscellaneous customer service charge revenues
(reconnection charges, bad check fees, etc.
Customer service charges for returned checks and reconnection fees
amounted to $46 131 in the base year. The fee for returned checks was increased
from $15 to $20 per item in August 2005 as per IPUC Order No. 29838. Base year
customer service fee revenue was adjusted upwards by $1 397 to account for this
increase. Based on the average rate of returned checks and reconnections per
customer during the base year, customer service fee revenue was increased another
$629 to account for growth through the end of the test year.
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
The Company received $12 095 in revenues from construction meter rents
and $85 856 from bulk water sales. Construction meter rents were also increased
under Order 29838 , from $20 to $25 per permit. Under the current rate structure
construction meter rents would have totaled $14 775 during the base year, so these
revenues were adjusted upwards by $2 680. For the pro forma period no adjustment
was made since the rental of construction meters is tied to the rate of growth in the
service area and no change in the underlying growth rate is anticipated (hence it is
expected that the same number of construction meters would be rented during the
pro forma period).
Bulk water sales are billed under the basic United Water meter service tariff
that is, fixed service charges based on meter size and commodity charges based on
usage. Metered service rates were increased twice during the base year. Once under
IPUC Order 29838, on August 2, 2005 and next under IPUC Order No.29871 , on
September 28, 2005. Assuming all bulk water sales had been billed under the
culTent tariff as per Order 29871 , an additional $5 010 in revenues would have been
realized in the base year. Other Revenues as adjusted for the test year therefore
amounted to $159 428.
Based on your analysis what conclusions do you draw for adjusted pro forma
revenues for the base year?
Pro forma metered water sales, fire service and other revenues under the existing
tariff schedule for the twelve month test year period ended April 30, 2006 total
$33 059 527 (as shown in Exhibit 1 , Schedule 1 , Page 2 of 2, Column 7);
815 155 more than booked during the base year.
Gradilone, DI
United Waterldaho
How does the Company propose to change its tariffs to reflect the change in rates
proposed in this rate case?
The Company proposes to increase rates to meet its revenue requirements on an
across the board basis. Based on a revenue requirement of $38 981 217 fixed
service charges, metered use charges and private fire service rates would need to
be increase 17.91 %.
Have you developed a rate proof to show that the proposed tariffs will generate the
revenues needed to meet the revenue requirement?
Yes. The rate proof for metered sales in the residential, commercial and public
sectors is shown in Exhibit 1 , Schedule 4 Page 11 of 11. The rate proof for private
fire protection services is shown in Exhibit 1 , Schedule 3 Page 37 of 37. The
proposed tariff structure generates $38 980 844 in revenues; a difference of ($373)
with respect to the revenue requirement.
Have you prepared any other schedules for this Application for Rate Increase?
Yes. I also prepared Exhibit 2, which shows the existing tariffs and proposed tariffs
for this case.
Does this conclude your testimony?
Yes it does.
Gradilone, DI
United Water Idaho
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REPORT
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WATER SERVICE REVENU..It:r'
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UNITED WATER IDAHO
FOR TH E TEST YEAR
May 2005 through April 30, 2006
INTRODUCTION
This report assesses historical water consumption use patterns for United
Water Idaho (United Water or Company), and derives: (1) billed water consumption
and revenues; (2) fire protection service revenues; and (3) other miscellaneous
revenues, for the Test Year defined as the period from May 31, 2005 through April
30, 2006. The assessment of revenues for this forward looking period was based on
the 12-month period November 1, 2004 through October 31, 2005, which is referred
to as the Base Year herein,
BASE YEAR & TEST YEAR REVENUE:
Total revenues booked during the base year totaled $30,244 372 (Exhibit 1,
Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2), which are broken down into three categories: Metered
Water Sales, Private Fire Protection services and Other Revenue.
Total revenue booked during the base year for Metered Water Sales in the
United Water Idaho system amounted to $29,399,223 (Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page
of 2). Revenues as per the determinants in the bill analysis for the base year
amounted to $29,446,364; only $47,141 or 0,16% more than the book total (Exhibit
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 1 of 20
1, Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2, Column 6). The bill analysis determinants were thus
established as the basis for the analysis (Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2, Column
7), (A complete set of bill analysis reports were obtained for the base year from
Untied Water Idaho s billing system. The data from these reports are summarized in
Exhibit 1, Schedule 4. Pages 1 to 9 of the Schedule provide detailed tables showing
the derivation of the bi II determ i nants for metered sales for the base year, as bi lied
and as re-priced under the current tariff.
Fire protection revenue as per the books amounted to $527,417 (Exhibit 1,
Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2, Column 1). Revenues as per the determinants (Exhibit 1,
Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2, Column 6) in the bill analysis were slightly lower at
$523,723, The bill determinants as per the bill analysis were used moving forward
(Exhibit 1, Schedule 1 , Page 1 of 2, Column 7),
Other Revenues, which include customer service fees, bulk water sales, and
unbilled revenue totaled $317,732, After eliminating unbilled revenue and adding
imputed revenue for Carriage Hill, total base year revenues were $149,712 from these
sources.Thus the starting point for the analysis of total base year revenue was
$30,119,799 as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2, Column 7.
Four adjustments were made to base year revenues: weather normalization,
base trend adjustment, growth through April 2006, and full pricing of the resulting bill
determinants under the current rate structure. These adjustments (which are
summarized in Exhibit 1 , Schedule 1, Page 2 of 2) result in net metered sales revenue
of $32,331,682 for the United Water system for the test year. Private fire revenues
for the test year total $568,417. Other revenues total $159,428. Therefore total
revenue under current rates for the test year were assessed herein to be $33,059,527
(Exhibit 1, Schedule 2, Page 2 of 2), an increase of just over $2.8 million versus
revenue booked in the base year. The adjustments that result in this increase are
discussed in detail below. The report also contains the calculation of the proposed
rate structure to meet the revenue requirement of $38,981 217, and a proof that these
rates will generate the revenue required.
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 2 of 20
REVENUE ANALYSIS:
For this assessment, the historical record for the period January 1986 through
November 2005 was analyzed. The data, which came from the Company s billing
system and other records, included: monthly-billed consumption and the number of
customers served by class for each of the three sectors in the United Water Idaho
system-residential, commercial and public; fire service counts by service size and
type; and, customer service fees and other miscellaneous revenue sources.
Linear regression models were developed to assess residential, commercial
and public sector water consumption patterns. Trending analysis was employed to
project fire protection services and other revenues, These were combined to produce
the total billed water consumption and revenue estimates for the base year and the
pro forma period.
Before reporting the results of these analyses, the following section will
describe the linear regression modeling technique, and why it was used in the
analysis,
LINEAR REGRESSION MODELING
Multiple linear regression analysis is a statistical data modeling technique that
is used to describe in mathematical terms the relationships between variables. In this
case a regression model was developed to assess the relationship between the amount
of water consumed by customers in each sector, and a number of factors that are
known to affect water use. The result of a regression analysis is an equation that
defines the relationship between the variable the analyst wishes to predict (in this
case, water consumption) and other variables that are correlated in a systematic way
to that variable (in this case, weather conditions, seasonal patterns, water price, and
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 3 of 20
the addition of new customers to the system). These correlated variables are also
known as explanatory variables,
A multiple linear regression equation is expressed in general form as:
Y = a + bX + cZ + ... +
An example of a simple equation that could be used to predict water consumption as
explained by the number of customers and the average daily temperature in the
system area would be expressed in the form:
Consumption = a + b * number of customers + c * average temperature
The regression analysis provides values for ", which is a constant (a fixed number),
and "b" and ", which are known as coefficients (there is one coefficient generated
for each variable that is correlated to the variable that is being modeled). Coefficients
can be positive or negative depending upon the relationship between the variable one
is predicting and the explanatory variables, To use this equation to predict water
consumption for any month, the number of customers to be served in the month is
multiplied by the coefficient ", and the temperature in the month is multiplied by
and then this result is added to the value for the constant ". For example, if the
actual regression equation was:
Consumption (CCF) = 70 000 + 20 * number of customers + 50 * average
temperature
Then consumption for a month in a system that had 50,000 customers and where the
average temperature was 70 degrees, would be predicted to be 1,713,500 CCF (Le.,
70,000 + (20 * 50,000) + (50 * 70) = 70,000 + 1,000,000 + 3,500),
The first step in regression analysis is the creation of a database of historical
data that accurately reflects the phenomenon the analyst would like to model. In the
process of developing a regression model database, the analyst may use the data in its
raw form (for example, the number of customers served), may transform it (for
example, take the log of the variable), or may find that it is necessary to add extra
variables (referred to as dummy variables) to take into account events or patterns in
the time series that are known to have affected the data, but that are not readily
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 4 of 20
quantifiable (such as a recession, or, changes in non-weather related water use
patterns).The data included in the database used in the analysis of billed
consumption are described below.
Variables Included in Modeling Database:A primary determinant of water demand
is the number of customers served. Hence the first variable included in the database
was the number of customers served in United Water s service area, Next water use
per customer variables were created by dividing the amount of water use by the
number of customers served. For the residential and commercial sectors these factors
were created using the data as recorded on a monthly basis from United Water
Idaho s billing system. For the public sector it was decided to calculate an average
customer count number based on the number of customers in service during the
summer period, rather than use the actual monthly numbers recorded. A large
portion of the customers in the public sector are seasonal, and over the years varying
numbers of these customers canceled and restored service each year. As result the
number of customers in the winter period are allover the map, some years barely a
quarter of the summer count, and in others almost identical to the summer count.
Basing the customer count on the summer numbers created a consistent base to work
from, and resulted in a more stable analysis.
Weather conditions have been shown to effect water consumption patterns in
numerous studies of water demand behavior.Based on the underlying climatic
regime in an area, and the nature of the customer base, a number of weather related
variables have been found to be correlated with water consumption; these include:
average temperature, cooling degree days, number of days over 90 degrees
Fahrenheit, total rainfall, number of days with rainfall, and the amount of rain per
rainfall event. These weather data for the official U,S. Weather Service station for
Boise, Idaho (Station CXUS56 KBOI 010933) was obtained for this analysis.
Substantial changes in the underlying characteristics of the customer base and
customer water use patterns also affect water use patterns, Since 1980 a key factor
that has been effecting water use in the United Water Idaho service area, and indeed
across the nation, was the passage of Federal Standards that mandated lower water
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 5 of 20
use for all water using fixtures in households, These standards, affecting toilets,
faucets and showerheads, have resulted in a long run decrease in the amount of water
used per customer across the U,S. The customers in United Water s service area have
also been subject to this trend. In addition, one other factor has resulted in a more
pronounced downward pressure on use per customer in the residential sector; the
passage of regulations in the mid-1990s that required all new construction to use
alternate lawn water supplies, if such supply was available. Customers that must use
available irrigation water for lawn watering clearly do not use as much water during
the summer months as customers that rely on United Water Idaho s supply.
Another key factor effecting water use is the price of the service. United Water
Idaho has made significant changes to the structure, and overall price of its tariffs, and
these changes have had an impact on water use in the service area. The major
structural change was the implementation of summer/winter pricing in 1993.
Summer/winter pricing has proven to be an effective tool to manage peak period sales
in numerous water systems, and have proven to be effective in the United Water
Idaho system as well. Since 1986 the Company has also received a number of rate
increases that has seen the average customer bill increase by over 135% on an
inflation adjusted basis, These price changes have also had an impact on customer
usage during the historical period of record.
Two pricing variables were created both assuming a typical customer with a %
meter and fixed amount of water for each tariff structure in effect over the period
(Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 1 of 37),The first variable was an estimated "Annual
Price" which assumed 200 CCF per year for water use.For use under the rate
structures that include minimum charges that were in effect prior to 1993 100 CCF
was included under the minimum and the remaining 100 CCF was priced at the
single commodity rate in the tariff. For use under the rate structures with the
summer/winter component, the price included the fixed service charge for a %" meter
plus pricing of 200 CCF of use on a pro-rated basis using a Y2 month convention for
each rate changeover. (That is, for January through April, and November through
December, use was priced wholly at the winter rate; June through September were
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 6 of 20
priced wholly at the summer rate; and May and October were priced half at the
winter rate and half at the summer rate). The second variable was a "Marginal Price
that also assumed 200 CCF per year, but pricing all use at the highest marginal rate
(for the tariffs in effect prior to 1993 this was the single commodity rate in the tariff,
and for the tariffs in effect after1993 this was the summer rate); the assumption being
that customers ultimately modified behavior based on the highest price signal
received during a year.
Note however, that the pricing variables do not correspond to a typical bill,
since there is no typical bill for the full range of residential, commercial and public
customers in the United Water Idaho service area, Rather the variables constructed
represent the relative change in rates that customers experienced since 1986, Based
on marginal cost pricing theory each customer would have reacted to these price
changes individually; some would have not changed their behavior at all, some
would have changed their behavior dramatically. By capturing the relative change in
rates in these variables, regression modeling is able to assign a value for the aggregate
change in the behavior of all customers in the service area due to the change in rates
over time.
Finally, the changing seasons and economic activity patterns also need to be
accounted for. For example, in the summer months, warmer temperatures and drier
conditions in general, result in higher water use due to increased lawn watering,
outdoor activities and business uses-for example, air conditioning make-up water
and evaporative cooling systems. (Specific weather conditions in a month will either
suppress or enhance the basic pattern, hence monthly weather data is included in the
analysis to help develop a better predictive model of water demand behavior.
The specific months included in the database to measure these pattern effects
were determined by an indexing procedure. The indices were developed using a
medial averaging methodology. Arithmetic averages are sensitive to outliers; that is,
extreme data points either on the high or low end. The medial average is the
arithmetic average of a data set, excluding the high and low values in it. Using a
medial average is a systematic way to remove extremes from a data set, thus yielding
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 7 of 20
more stable results. The monthly pattern index developed for each sector is shown
in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 2 of 37,
Model Verification Regression analysis provides the analyst with measures of how
good the model is at explaining the variable the analyst is trying to predict, and
defines in statistical terms how accurate the model is.
The first step in verifying the validity of a regression model is to determine the
goodness-of-fit of the equation as defined by the statistics generated in the process.
The overall goodness of fit is represented by a statistic called R-squared. R-squared is
a measure of the total variance explained by the regression equation, If there were no
relationship between the explanatory variables and the predicted variable, then R-
squared would be 0%; if there were a perfect relationship between the variables, then
R-squared would be 100%. In general, higher r-squares are associated with better
predictive ability, although a high R-squared is no guarantee of absolute predictive
ability.
In any regression analysis there remains a danger that the R-squared value may
reflect nothing more than spurious correlation, For this reason, in addition to
determining the "goodness-of-fit", as measured by the R-squared statistic, it is
necessary to test the logic and believability of the regression equation both as to the
size and the direction of any apparent causality, and to verify the accuracy of the
model by comparing actual consumption in past periods against the estimates
generated by the model,
The second step in the verification process is therefore to determine if the
equation makes intuitive sense, For example, a coefficient representing the number
of days over 90 degrees Fahrenheit should be positive, confirming the intuitive notion
that as the temperature increases, so to does water consumption. Likewise, the
number of days with precipitation, as logically expected, should be negatively
correlated with water demand.
The final step in the verification process is using the model to estimate
consumption over the same time period as the original database. The model, while
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 8 of 20
showing variances in each year, on an average basis for the entire base period should
yield low absolute and percentage variances,
The regression modeling was performed on a Compaq computer using the
Microsoft Excel 2000 Version of the software package. A number of iterations and
combinations of weather variables were tried; the results presented here represent the
best-fit models for each sector.
METERED SALES CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS
Residential Sector Consumption Analysis: Exploratory data analysis revealed
that weather conditions, as expected, affected water use in the United Water Idaho
service territory. The residential sector also exhibited a strong seasonal pattern, with
consumption in the summer months being up to four times as high as the winter
months. Therefore, regression models were developed that took into account the
impact of weather conditions and the change in the seasons.
Given the large difference in the demand patterns between the summer and
winter seasons, and the fact that weather variables have a negligible impact on water
use patterns in the winter (and that therefore, weather fluctuations are not highly
correlated with water use in the winter) it was decided to assess water consumption
separately for the winter and summer periods.Based on an analysis of water use
patterns over the course of the year, the months of January through April were
established as the winter/base period, while May through December was established
as the summer/peak period (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 2 of 37). The evident shifting
forward in timing of the peaks and valleys of the water use pattern is the result of the
lag in billing customers every two months. For example, this results in including
months such as April in the winter/base period, even though intuitively one would
think it should be included in the summer/peak period. And, vice versa November is
in the summer/peak period rather than the winter/base period.
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 9 of 20
WINTER PERIOD ANAL YSIS: The number of residential customers served by month
in United Water s service area is shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 3 of 37.
shown on this table, the number of residential customers has been exhibiting a steady
upward trend, but that the trend was disturbed on three occasions due to recoding of
customers and acquisitions of new system areas.
In early 1989 apartment buildings in the service area were reclassified as
commercial customers resulting in a loss of 897 "residential" customers in the dataset,
resulting in "negative" growth in the sector for that year. In the 1996-97 period about
000 customers in Garden City, Warm Springs Mesa, Redwood Creek, Island Woods
and Banbury were added to the system, bumping up the growth for that year. The
recoding of customers in 1989 and the addition of customers in the 1996-97 period
did not seem to appreciably affect the amount of water used per customer; use per
customers continued to decrease at about the same rate as it had been since the early
1990s, owing to the introduction of water saving plumbing fixture standards at the
Federal level and other local factors.
In 1999, South County, Barber and Raintree were added. The acquisition of
these service areas added 4,800 customers to the system, representing a large one-
time increase of over 9% in the residential customer base, and more importantly
induced a further decrease in the trend in the amount of water used per customer.
The addition of this block of customers put downward pressure on the use per
customer trend for two reasons. One, alternate irrigation water was readily available
and used extensively in these areas, and two, in the case of South County, water rates
were much lower than United's rates, and these lower rates were increased to the
United water tariff over a 5 year phase-in period, Hence, the customers experienced
a substantial increase in water bills over this period, and reacted accordingly and
reduced water use.
In the end it was found that for the winter period, a regression of residential
water use per customer versus time, a variable representing the marginal price of
water, and a dummy variable to account for the addition of South County in 1999
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 10 of 20
and the phase-in of United Water rates, resulted in the best fit, even though the
squared for the equation representing residential water use for the winter season was
a relatively low 27% (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 4 of 37, and shown graphically in
Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 5 of 37).
Mitigating against the low R-squared was the fit of the equation to actual
results, As shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 6 of 37, the regression estimates for
winter water use were on average within 0,01 % of the actual, and the highest
individual year variance was only 6,5%, Based on this analysis, winter consumption
for the test was adjusted upwards by 47 851 CCF. Actual consumption in the base
year was 1,829,627 CCFi the regression estimate was 1,877,478 CCF.
SUMMER PERIOD ANAL YSIS: For the summer period, average monthly temperature,
total monthly rainfall, the marginal price of water and dummy variables to account for
the addition of South County to the service area and the monthly pattern of use over
the summer months, proved to be the best combination of variables to predict
summer water use per customer. The statistics for the regression analyses for the
residential sector are summarized in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 7 of 37. The R-
squared for the equation for peak use per customer was quite good - 91.8% -
particularly given the complexity of the phenomena being measured. The variability
from year-to-year for summer use is a bit higher than the winter model owing to the
volatility of use during the summer as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 8 of 37,
however on average the regression estimates differed from actual results by only
33%.
NORMALIZING ADJUSTMENTS: The next step in the analysis was to
normalize metered sales revenues to account for the weather conditions during the
summer/peak period during the base year, and the projected change in the number of
customers through the end of the test year.
The weather normalization was accomplished by recomputing the regression
results for the summer/peak period using the long run medial average of the weather
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 11 of 20
conditions for the period 1986 to 2005 for the months May through December, rather
than the actual weather during the period, This provides an estimate of what water
sales would have been if weather conditions had been "normal", rather than being
cooler and wetter as they actual were. In order to provide a better match between the
weather conditions that influenced customers during the bi-month billing cycle used
by United Water Idaho, a new weather variable was created that took the two month
lag in billing into effect. This was accomplished by using a standard pro ration
technique for a bi-monthly cycle where the weather in any given month was
calculated to be of the actual weather (i.e., temperature, rainfall, etc.) for two
months prior, 1/2 of the actual for the month immediately prior and ~ of the current
month, The actual, and lagged, temperature and rainfall dataset is shown in Exhibit 1,
Schedule 3, Page 9. The lag, resulting from bi-monthly billing, is clearly evident on
these graphs, Comparing the lagged actual weather conditions for the summer 2005
period versus the lagged normalized conditions shows that in the first three months of
the summer period (May, June and July) weather conditions were generally cooler and
wetter than normal, as indicated by the bolding in the table below.
September the temperature was at or above normal , but
In August and
Actual VS. Normalized Weather Conditions Summer 2005
PARAMETER MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Da 5 with Preci itation
rainfall totals were very close to the norm, which for these two months were only
0.32 and 0.27 inches respectively. Based on these conditions the weather adjustment
was expected to be positive, as indeed it was. The total weather normalizing
adjustment as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 8 of 37, amounts to 431,426
CCF, or, 4,2% higher than actual use. Total normalized peak/summer use in the base
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 12 of20
year was therefore calculated to be 10,748,285 CCF versus actual use of 10,316,859
CCF,
To calculate the dollar value of the base/winter and peak/summer variances,
total normalized use for the base year was then allocated to the months in the base
year based on the long run average index of billings in the residential sector as shown
in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 2 of 37, These calculations are summarized in Exhibit
1, Schedule 3, Page 10 of 37 in the column headed "Indexed Use
The next step in the analysis was to derive the revenue impact of these
variances. This was accomplished by pricing total actual use, versus the adjusted
base year totals based on current rates. For these calculations an effective monthly
rate was calculated assuming normal billing lags and the pro ration of bills that occur
over the course of a year. The derivation of the Effective Rates is shown in Exhibit 1,
Schedule 3, Page 11 of 37.
As shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule, Page 10 of 37 the trend and weather
normalization adjustments were (47,011) CCF and 526,289 CCF respectively. The
total adjustment in dollar terms as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 12 of 37
amounted to $621,353, with ($51,299) being the trend adjustment during the
winter/base period, and $672 651 being the weather normalization adjustment during
the peak/summer period.
TEST YEAR GROWTH ADJUSTMENTS: For the six months following the end
of the base year (November 2005 through April 2006) the number of customers
added to the system is projected to total 1 031. That is, growth in this six month
period would be the same as experienced during the 6 month period immediately
prior, which corresponds to the last 6 months of the base year. To account for the
impact of this anticipated growth through April 2006, these customers were priced on
a month by month basis. As shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 12 of 37 an
adjustment of an additional $94,902 was made to pro forma revenues to account for
metered sales, Given United Water s bi-monthly billing cycle it would also be
expected that the customers added to the system during the 6 month period from
November 2005 through April 2006 would be billed 3 times on average (i,e., Y2 of
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 13 of 20
the 6 bills normally rendered to customers).These customers would therefore be
expected to generate an additional 3,039 bills. It was assumed that the customers
added to the system (and hence the bills generated) would be in proportion to the
existing mix of customer by meter size as shown in Exhibit 12, Schedule 3, Page 13 of
37.As shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 4, Page 10 of 11, these added bills would
produce $45,834 in new fixed service charges at current rates. Therefore the total test
year adjustment for the residential sector amounts to $140,736 (Exhibit 1, Schedule 1,
Page 2 of 2, Column 4). Total adjusted test year revenue for the residential sector was
thus evaluated to be $21,193,830, or $762,089 higher than booked,
Commercial Sector Consumption Analysis:During the late 1980's and early
1990's Micron Technology was United Water Idaho s largest single customer (Exhibit
, Schedule 3, Page 14 of 37). Indeed, in 1989, and again in the 1994-1996 period,
Micron accounted for over 3% of total water sales.Beginning in 1996 Micron
Technologies embarked on a major efficiency and water reuse program, and has
experienced a changed business environment, and as a result water sales to Micron
have dropped precipitously. Micron no longer is the single largest user in the system.
Indeed in the base year its demand was less than 20% of its peak demand of nearly
605,000 CCF in 1995-96, During the base year Micron consumption amounted to
only 118,873 CCF, While Micron would seem to no longer require a separate
analysis, in order to make comparisons between the prior case and the two prior
cases, and leaving open the possibility that Micron s usage pattern may yet change
again, it was decided to continue to back out Micron s use from the commercial
sector s consumption history before the regression analysis proceeded, (The
consumption for Micron was added back into the commercial sector, later in the
analysis,
The assessment of the commercial sector s consumption per customer for the
winter period (defined as january through March), showed that a regression model of
total monthly consumption per customer during versus time and the addition of South
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 14 of 20
County proved to be the best model (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 15 of 37 and
graphically in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 16 of 37). While the overall trend in water
use per customer is down, as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 17 of 37, for the
base year the analysis indicates an upward trend adjustment of 27,081 CCF.
For the summer period consumption per customer was regressed against the
time, average monthly temperature, total rainfall, price, the addition of South County,
and monthly pattern variables to account for seasonal economic activity for the
months of May through December (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 18 of 37), The R-
squared for this equation was just over 91.4%. The average annual variance was a
little over 11,000 CCF, only 0.22% (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 19 of 37),
NORMALIZING ADJUSTMENTS: The next step in the analysis was to normalize
metered sales revenues for the weather conditions during the base year. The
commercial sector was also effected by the cooler and wetter weather conditions that
prevailed during the summer of 2005, and hence an upwards normalizing adjustment
of 215,285 CCF was made as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, 19 of 37.
Total adjusted base year consumption was therefore assessed to be 6,691,204
CCF versus actual consumption of 6,648,838 CCF (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 20 of
37). For the test year commercial consumption was projected to total 6,712,571 CCF.
To enable a direct comparison to the pattern of use in the base year and test year,
adjusted consumption totals were allocated by month using the same indexing
technique used in the residential analysis as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 10
of 37. At this point Micron was added back into the analysis. Given Micron
volatility, it was decided to assume that for the normalized base year and pro form
year that the amount of use for Micron would be set at the same level as recorded
during the base year, that is, 118,873 CCF. Total commercial sector water sales were
therefore assessed to be 6,810,077 CCF for the normal ized base year, and 6,831,444
CCF for the test year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 21 of 37). In revenue terms these
levels of use translate into a total base year adjustment of $278,418; $60,676 of
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 15 of 20
which was the trend adjustment and $217,652 being the weather adjustment (Exhibit
1, Schedule 3, Page 22 of 37).
GROWTH ADJUSTMENTS: For the test year an additional $256,653 in billed
revenues are projected for the commercial sector, During the base year 84 new
commercial customers were added to the system. An additional 52 are projected to
be added by April 2006, Assuming these customers are billed 3 times on average
over the six month period following the base year, an additional 157 bills would be
rendered (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 13 of 37). It was also assumed that these
additional customers would be added to the system in the same proportion with
respect to the size of the meter as customers in the existing system. Additional fixed
service charges therefore totaled $3,962 (Exhibit 1, Schedule 4, Page 10 of 11).
Adjusted test year revenues for the commercial sector at prevailing rates were
therefore evaluated to be $9,182,222. (Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 2 of 2).
Public Sector Consumption Analysis:The analysis of the public sector
paralleled the analysis of the residential and commercial sectors.
The winter period for the public sector was defined as January through April.
To assess public use during the winter period a simple trend of the use per customer
during the winter months was calculated (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 23 of 37). This
yielded a 45 CCF trend adjustment for the base year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 24
of 37).
For the summer period, a regression equation that incorporated the number of
customers, total rainfall, and monthly pattern variables for the months of May through
November, were included in the model (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 25 of 37). The
R-squared for the public sector model was also quite good at 64%. The average
normalized variance for the model was only 1 %, Following the experience of the
residential and commercial sectors the weather adjustment for the public sedor was
also positive at 16,216 CCF (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 26 of 37).The total
adjustment to base year revenues as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 27 of 37
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 16 of 20
were therefore $19,259 (consisting of a $49 trend adjustment, and a $19,209 weather
normalization adjustment).
No change in the number of public sector customers occurred during the base
year, and no changes in the number of public customers, and hence customer service
fees, are expected through April 2006, However, the underlying growth trends and
weather normalization resulted in a billed water use adjustment of $293, yielding
total adjusted test year revenues of $160,987 for the public sector (Exhibit 1 , Schedule
1, Page 2 of 2).
PRIVATE FIRE PROTECTION SERVICES REVENUE
Private Fire Protection revenues at current rates collected during the base year
based on the bill determinants totaled $523,723 as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3,
Page 28 of 37. Pricing these bill determinants under the current rate schedule yields
total revenues of $557,819 (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 29 of 37). Due to growth in
the number of private fire services during the year and anticipated through April 2006
an additional $10,066 in revenues were added to the total to derive total private fire
revenues of $567,884 for the test year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 30 of 37).
OTHER REVENUES
The Company receives revenues from a number of customer service related
charges (including customer service fees, rents for construction meters, and bulk water
sales) as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 1 of 2. During the base year these
revenues totaled $144,082, or less then 0.50% of total revenues.In addition,
$173,650 in unbilled revenues was recorded on the books during the base year.
The first adjustment to other revenues was to eliminate unbilled revenues,
since the analysis for the base year assumes that all fixed service charges and
consumption for all customers were billed and collected.
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 17 of 20
Customer service fees for returned checks and reconnection fees totaled
$46,133 during the base year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 31 of 37). The returned
check fee was increased from $15 per item to $20 per item in August 2005.
Assuming all returned checks during the base year were charged at the new tariff rate,
an additional $1,397 in customer service revenue would have been collected (Exhibit
1, Schedule 3, Page 32 of 37). Next, assuming that customers added to the system
incur return check fees and request meter reconnections at the same rate as the
existing customer base, another $629 in customer service revenue are projected for
the test year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 33 of 37).
Rents for temporary construction meters totaled $12,095 during the base year
(Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 34 of 37), The tariffed rate for this service was also
increased in August of 2005; from $20 to $25, Assuming all rentals were billed at the
$25 rate rentals would have totaled $14,775 in the base year. No adjustment was
made for the test year since the level of construction activity is expected to be about
the same as during the base year.
Bulk water sales though hydrants generated $85,856 in revenue during the
base year (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 35 of 37). These services are billed under the
general metered sales rate structure for United Water Idaho (Le" a fixed charge based
on meter size, and then commodity charges based on usage). United Water rates
were increased doing the base year. Pricing the bulk hydrant sales bill determinant
for the base year under the current rate structure would have generated an additional
$5,010 in revenue,
Other Revenues for the test year as adjusted total $159,428 (Exhibit 1,
Schedule 1, Page 2 of 2).
ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO RATE CHANGES
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 18 of 20
United Water Idaho tariffed rates were increased twice during the base year.
Once under IPUC Order 29838, on August 2, 2005, and next under IPUC Order No.
29871, on September 28, 2005. In order to evaluate the total revenues that would be
generated for the test year, the bill determinants, as adjusted, for metered sales, fire
protection and other revenues were priced at the rates currently in effect, that is those
that were effective as per Order No. 29871
Total adjusted pro forma metered sales revenue as billed as shown in Exhibit
1, Schedule 1 , Page 2 of 2, Column 5 were $30,537,038. Metered water sales for the
test year priced at current rates total $32,331,682, that is, pricing the bill determinants
for the test year as adjusted yielded an additional $1,794,644 in revenue as shown in
Exhibit 1, Schedule 4 page 10 of 11. Fire protection revenue for the test year are
projected to be $44,695 higher if these services are billed at current rates (Exhibit 1,
Schedule 3, Page 30 of 37), for a total of $567,884. And, in the Other Revenue
category, pricing the anticipated bulk rate sales at current rates yields an additional
$9,087 in revenue (Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 35 of 37), boosting Other Revenues to
a total of $159,428.
In total, therefore, test year revenues for United Water Idaho for this rate
proceeding amounts to $33,059,527 as shown in Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 2 of 2,
Column 7.
REVENUE SUMMARY & PROPOSED RATE SCHEDULE
The base year in this case has been established as November 1, 2004 through
October 31, 2005. Total pro forma revenues for United Water Idaho for the test year
(May 31, 2005 through April 30, 2006) after considering anticipated growth through
April 2006, were assessed at $33,059,527 (Exhibit 1, Schedule 1, Page 2 of 2). Based
on this filing the Company is asking for an increase in revenues of $5,921,690, for a
total revenue requirement of $38,981,217, or an overall increase of 17.91 %. The
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 19 of 20
Company proposes to increase rates to meet its revenue requirements on an across
the board basis.
In order to generate the revenue requirement tariff rates for metered water use
and private fire protection services would have to be increased by 17.95% (this is
slightly higher than the overall increase to compensate for the categories of other
revenues-Customer Service Fees and Construction Meter Rentals-that will not be
affected by the tariff change,) The derivation of the proposed rate schedule is shown
in Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page of 36 of 37. The rate proof for the residential,
commercial and public sectors for the United Water Idaho service area is shown in
Exhibit 1, Schedule 4, Page 11 of 11. And finally, the proof of fire rates is shown in
Exhibit 1, Schedule 3, Page 37 of 37. Total revenues generated by the proposed tariffs
are $38,980,844, $373 less than the revenue requirement. (It was not possible to
reduce the difference to a lesser number due to rounding fixed services charges to the
nearest penny,) The proposed tariff schedule is included as Exhibit 2, Schedule 2 of
the filing.
Exhibit 1
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 20 of 20
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UNITED WATER IDAHO
Index of Use by Month
BOLD =
SEASONAL
MONTHS
Residential
Sector
Commercial
Sector Public Sector
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
112%
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108%
89%
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122%
57%
13%
49%
88%
185%
219%
234%
208%
250%Residential Sector
200%
150%
100%~,Winter Months
50%
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Commercial Sector
200%
150%
100%Winter Months
50%
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
250%Public Sector
200%
150%
Winter Months
100%
50%
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Exhibit No.
F. Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 2 of 37
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C'I
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
I~Actual I 39.31.31.36.44.50.58.67.75.74.64.52.
l-Lagged I 33.
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Total Rainfall
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..5
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
~Actual
,--
-Lagged 0.43
Exhibit 1
F Gradil one
Schedule 3
Page 9 of 37
UNITED WATER IDAHO
Residential Sector Use by Month
NORMALIZED BASE YEAR TEST YEAR
INCCF
Actual Base
Year Use Normalized Use Indexed Use Normalized Use Indexed Use
11.085 563 129 030 181 599
12.695,277 481,819 699 047
431 841 467 818 463,995
208
468 695 443 464
469,997 431,792
470 969 443 365
492 238 627 290 492 238
924 644 990,364 924 644
645,633 580 262 645,633
049,579 950 472 049,579
325 123 158,003 325 123
10.743 912 700 220 656,111 700,220 665
11.139,948 188,633
12,471 857 703 209
486,524 466,757
487,447
488 399
489 318
WINTER
SUMMER
1 ,829,627
10,316 859
877,478
10,748 285
782 615 951,688
10,749,242
700,929625,763
CHANGE: BASE vs. NORMALIZED YEAR vs. TEST YEAR
WINTER
SUMMER
TOTAL
011
526,289
36,399
590,842
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 10 of 37
UNITE D WATE R IDAHO
Calculation of Effective Rate
Month Actual Rate Effective Rate *
JAN $1.0912 0912
FER $1.0912 0912
MAR $1.0912 0912
APR $1.0912 0912
MAY $1.3641 1594
J UN $1.3641 2959
J UL $1.3641 3641
AUG $1.3641 3641
SEP $1.3641 3641
OCT $1.0912 2959
NOV $1.0912 1594
DEC $1.0912 0912
NOTE: * RATE in MO =RATE in M0-2/4 +RATE in M0-1 /2 +RATE in MO/4
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 11 of 37
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Micron Technology s Water Sales
Period from
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F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 14 of 37
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UNITED WATER IDAHO
Commercial Sector: Summer Use Regression Analysis
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 95.61 %
R Square 91.42%
Adjusted R Square 90.61 %
Standard Error
Observations 152
ANOV A
Significance F
Regression 13.119,471 190 113
Residual 138,217
Total 151.130 688
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Constant 38.8779 58.76.154.
SO CNTY 5013 0.46 12.
PRICE 0018
TEMP 2389 0.46
RAIN 3549 2.46
TIME 0001
MAY 7099 0.41
JUNE 24.3470 17.31.40
JULY 33.0890 24.41.
AUGUST 69.1021 16.60.77.
SEPTEMBER 64.3874 17.57.71.
OCTOBER 69.5491 21.63.76.
NOVEMBER 32.3743 25.38.DECEMBER 17.5215 10.24.
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 18 of 37
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4
UNITED WATER I D AH
Commercial Sector Use
NORMALIZED BASE YEAR TEST YEAR
Actual Base Normalized Use Indexed Use Normalized I Indexed UseINCCFYear Use Use
11.562,817 616,695 604 056
12.443,996 489,474 508,574
292 617 293,303
310 953 354,5801
292 500 276,7951
353,187 364,331
330,921 344,863 330,921 345,964
580,990 594,175 580 990 596,0241
655,943 656,090 655,943
991,654 980,408 991,654
996,633 921 219 884,989 921,2191
10.910,793 973,923 947,913 973,923
11.622 648
12.492,313
295,054'
313 569
295,331
357,878
WINTER USE 868,989 896,070 924 677 903,955
SUMMER USE 698 722 914 007 927 489
r~Jt1j~i,~~~i~~I~i1f.810 077
CHANGE: BASE
WINTER
SUMMER
TOTAL
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 21 of 37
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Public Sector Use
NORMALIZED BASE YEAR TEST YEAR
Actual Base Normalized Use I Normalized Use I Indexed UseYear Use Indexed UseINCCF
11.12414 12414
12.5732 5732
1025 1025
1025 1025
1025 1025
025 025
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4423 9352 9352 9352
17 640 18785 18785 18785
14932 20227 20227 227
30544 21 984 21 984 21 984
10.937 502 502 19,502
11.12340
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1034
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WINTER USE 030 3075 3075 3103
114609 114470
117 684 117.572TOTAL USE
CHANGE: BASE
WINTER
SUMMER
TOTAL
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 24 of 37
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UNITED WATER IDAHO
Private Fire Protection Revenue in Base Year as Billed
Service Size Type Bi-Monthly Rates Numberot Bills Rendered RevenueServices
PRIVATE FIRE SERVICE LINES
$ 23.266 346 $ 31 836
$ 25.206 $ 5,245
$ 25.215
$ 35.400 999 $ 71 667
$ 38.307 $11 847
$ 38.$ 3 619
$ 89.456 270 $ 202 210
$ 95.343 $ 32 890
$ 96.114 $ 10 977
$ 146.122 598 $ 87 548
$ 157.$ 15 154
$ 158.$ 6,080
10"$ 228.$ 12 815
$ 245.$ 2 198
$ 246.$ 689
12"$ 341.$ 8 818
$ 368,$ 1 235
$ 369.$207
TOTAL 260 556 $ 506,249
PRIVATE HYDRANTS
Hydrants $ 14.170 849 $ 12 156
$ 15.129 $ 1 996
$ 15.$ 637
TOTAL 170 019 $ 14 789
OTHE R Annual Rate
Ada County Highway *$ 2,150,$ 2 151
TOTAL FIRE SERVICES 431 575 $ 523 189
BILL ANALYSIS $ 523,725
DIFFERENCE ($ 536)
BOOKS $ 527 417
DIFFERENCE ($ 4 228)
NOTE: * Access to hydrants for street cleaning by Ada County DPW
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 28 of 37
UNITED WATER IDAHO
Private Fire Protection Revenue in Base Year at Current Rates
Service Size Type Bi-Monthly Rates Numberof Bills Rendered RevenueServices
PRIVATE FIRE SERVICE LINES
$ 25.266 599 $ 40,868
$ 38.400 399 $ 92,925
$ 96.456 728 $ 262,497
$158.122 733 $ 115 881
10"$ 246.$ 16,742
12"$ 369.$ 10 974
TOTAL 260 556 $ 539,886
PRIVATE HYDRANTS
Hydrants $ 15.48 170 019 $ 15 782
TOTAL 170 019 $ 15,782
OTHE R Annual Rate
Ada County Highway *$ 2,150.$2,151
TOTAL FIRE SERVICES 431 575 $ 557,819
REVENUE AT PREVAILING RATES $ 523,189
INCREASE $ 34 630
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 29 of 37
UNITED WATER IDAHO
Private Fire Protection Revenue for the Test Year
Service Size Type Bi-Monthly Rates Numberof Bills Rendered RevenueServices
PRIVATE FIRE SERVICE LINES
$ 25.271 629 $ 41 635
$ 38.407 2,441 $ 94 552
$ 96,466 788 $ 268 271
$ 158.124 745 $117,779
10"$ 246.$ 16 742
12"$ 369.$ 10 974
TOTAL 284 700 $ 549 952
PRIVATE HYDRANTS
Hydrants $ 15.170 019 $ 15 782
TOTAL 170 019 $ 15 782
OTHE R Annual Rate
Ada County Highway *$ 2,150.$ 2 151
TOTAL FIRE SERVICES 455 719 $ 567 884
REVENUE AT PREVAILING RATES $ 557 819
INCREASE $ 10,066
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 30 of 37
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F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 31 of 37
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Cons truction Meter Rentals
PREVAILING RATES CURRENT RATES
Monthly $25 per
Date Rentals $20 Permits $25 Permits Permit
November-
December-
January-
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March-
April-
May-
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Total Rentals 591 536 591
Tariffed Rates $ 20.$ 25.$ 25.
Subtotal Revenue $ 10 720 $ 1 375 $ 14 775
Total Rental Charge $ 12,095 $ 14 775
BOOK REVENUE $ 12 095
DIFFERENCE $ 0
TOTAL REVENUE DURING BASE YEAR $ 12 095
NUALIZED INCREASE DUE TO TARIFF CHANGES IN BASE YEAR $ 2 680
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 34 of 37
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F Gradilone
Schedul e 3
Page 35 of 37
UNITE D WA TE R IDAHO
E xis ling Final Tariffs
E XIS TlNG UNR OUNDE D PROPOSED PE RCE NT
CHARGE CHARGE CHARGE CHANGE
METERED SERVICE TARIFFS
Fixed Service Charges
METER SIZE OJ-Monthly OJ-Monthly
5/8"$ 14.17,22289 $ 17 .17,95%
3/4"$ 14.17,22289 $17.17,95%
$ 19.22,64928 $ 22.17,97%
1 1/4"$31.36,68712 $ 36.17.97%
1 1/2"$ 31.36.68712 $ 36.17,97%
$ 44.52,96629 $ 52.17.97%
$ 82.97.32113 $ 97.17,96%
$ 131.154,88805 $ 154.17.97%
$ 252.298,09756 $ 298.17,97%
$ 381.449,68258 $ 449.17,96%
10"$ 532.628,63549 $ 628.17,97%
Flat Rate Service $ 58.62.05800 $ 62.27%
Commodity Rates (CCF)
WINTER PERIOD $1.0912 2872341 $1.2872 17,96%
SUMMER PERIOD ~CCF $1.0912 $1.2872
SUMMER PERIOD :::BCCF $1.3641 1.6090426 $1.6090 17,95%
Commodity Rates (KG)
WINTER PERIOD $1.4587 1.7207815 $1.7208 17,97%
SUMMER PERIOD ~CCF $1.4587 $1.7208
SUMMER PERIOD :::BCCF $1.8235 1509769 $2.1510 17,96%
PRIVATE FIRE PROTECTION TARIFFS
Fixed Service Charges
METE R SIZE Monthly Monthly
$ 12.15,07593 $ 15.17,92%
$ 19.22.84982 $ 22.17,97%
$ 48.56,76476 $ 56.17,96%
$ 79.93,26313 $ 93.17,96%
10"$ 123.145.45085 $ 145.17,96%
12"$ 184.217,86956 $ 217.17,97%
Private Hydrant $ 7.13049 $ 9.17.96%
Sprinkler Rate $ 193.228.45102 $ 228.17,96%
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 36 of 37
UNITED WATER IDAHO
Private Fire Protection Revenue at Proposed Rates
Service Size Type Bi-Monthly Numberof Bills Rendered RevenueRatesServices
P R IV ATE FIR E SE R V IC E LI N E S
$ 30.271 629 $ 49 095
$ 45.407 2,441 $ 111 539
$ 113.466 2,788 $ 316,439
$ 186.124 745 $ 138 933
10"$ 290.$ 19,750
12"$ 435.$ 12 945
TOTAL 284 700 $ 648,701
PRIVATE HYDRANTS
Hydrants $ 18.170 019 $ 18 616
TOTAL 170 019 $ 18,616
OTHE R Annual Rate
Ada County Highway *$ 2 741.$ 2,741
TOTAL FIRE SERVICES 455 719 $ 670 058
REVENUE AT PROPSED RATES $ 567 884
INCREASE $ 102 174
Exhibit 1
F Gradilone
Schedule 3
Page 37 of 37
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:~ U
SCHEDULE NO.
GENERAL METERED SERVICE - ~:- - \ 0 F: i 2: \ 9
Availability
To all metered customers not served under a separate schedule. -
' -, ,,. , ""
jT\Ui\,~~ CUi ii,!;):JiUi'Cu~omer Chames: B~Mo~h~
Per Meter
CharQ
$ 14.
14,
19,
31.
44.
82.
131.
252.
381.
532.
Meter Size
5/8"
3/4"
1/4" and 1-1/2"
2" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
3" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
4" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
6" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
8" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
10" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
Volume Char Winter Summer
Rates Rates
For all water used less than 3CCF (100 cubic
Feet) (CCF)(1 CCF=748 gallons):$1.0912 $1.0912
For all water used greater than 3CCF $1.0912 $1.3641
Conditions of Contract:
The customer shall pay the total of the customer charge plus the volume charge,
The volume charge is based on all metered water for the billing period.
Consumption is expressed in hundred cubic foot units or thousand gallon units as
determined by the meter installed by the Company. The customer charge will be
prorated whenever the customer has not been a customer for the entire billing
period.
Summer Period
The summer rate will apply to water consumed between May 1 and September 30. Meter
readings straddling these dates will be prorated.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No. 29871
Effective - September 28, 2005
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 1
Page 1 of 5
SCHEDULE NO.
FLAT RATE SERVICE
Availability
To non-metered residential customers pursuant to Residential or Multi-Family
Housing Non-Contiguous Water Systems Agreement Paragraph 11 (a) addressing
flat rate systems.
Customer Charqes
Based on United Water Idaho residential consumption for the year ending June
1998 of 208.75 ccf, the average residential bill, assuming a %" meter and
65%/35% summer/winter split, is $350.43. Billed bi-monthly, equals $58.40.
Bi-monthly Charqe $58.40
Conditions of Contract:
The bi-monthly charge will be prorated whenever the customer has not been a
customer for the entire billing period. The Company or the customer may convert
to metered service pursuant to Subparagraphs (b) or (c) of Paragraph 11 as
follows:
(b)If Company should determine that a flat rate customer is using water in
excess of the average residential customer, the Company will provide a
meter setting and meter. Customer will then pay Company s metered tariff
rates as approved by the IPUG, which rates may be amended from time to
time.
(c)If a customer prefers to pay Company s approved metered tariff rates, the
customer shall pay the installation and material costs associated with the
installation of a meter setting.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUG Order No. 29871
Effective - September 28,2005
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO ING.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 1
Page 2 of 5
SCHEDULE NO.
PUBLIC HYDRANTS AND STREET SPRINKLING
Availability
To the City of Boise and Ada County Highway District.
Rates:
Street SprinklinQ Service
Flat Charge $193.66/Month
Miscellaneous:
Bills will be rendered monthly, bi-monthly, or at other intervals upon mutual
agreement of the Company and the customer.
Hydrants and service pipes from the fitting on the Company main to the hydrants
are to be installed and maintained by and at the expense of the City of Boise or
Ada County Highway District.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No. 29871
Effective - September 28 , 2005
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 1
Page 3 of 5
SCHEDULE NO.
PRIVATE FIRE SPRINKLER AND SERVICE
Availability
To all customers who have sprinkler systems and/or inside hose connections for
fire fighting purposes.
Rate
For service through a separate line for fire fighting purposes.
For 3" service or smaller, per month
For 4" service per month
For 6" service per month
For 8" service per month
For 10" service per month
For 12" service per month
$ 12.
19.
48.
79.
123,
184.
Miscellaneous:
Provided that if the installation of a private fire service shall require an extension of
the existing mains of the company, the cost of such extension shall be borne by the
customer.
All private fire services shall be equipped with sealed gate valves or thermal
automatic openings.
Meters may be placed on fire services by the utility at any time; however, metered
rates will not apply unless improper use of water is disclosed, and if such be the
case, usage will be billed to the consumer under Rate Schedule No.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUG Order No. 29871
Effective - September 28, 2005
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO lNG,
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road , Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 1
Page 4 of 5
SCHEDULE NO.
PRIVATE FIRE HYDRANT SERVICE
Availability:
To all customers having private fire hydrant installations.
Rate
For fire hydrants installed and maintained by the customer at customer
expense:
Each fire hydrant, per month $7.
Miscellaneous:
Service pipe from the fitting on the company water main to the fire hydrant is to be
installed and maintained by the customer.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No. 29871
Effective - September 28, 2005
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road , Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 1
Page 5 of 5
Sheet No.
Replacing all Previous Sheets
, ,, " ,- ,
UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
::'---
, !:'j r::! 9
" , '- (
JTiL_iT!:~~, C'~;il'!:)S:C:,
SCHEDULE NO.
GENERAL METERED SERVICE
Availability
To all metered customers not served under a separate schedule.
Customer Charqes Bi-Monthly
Per Meter
Charqe
$ 17.
17.
22.
36.
52,
97.
154.
298.
449.
628.
Meter Size
5/8"
3/4"
1/4" and 1-1/2"
2" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
3" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
4" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
6" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
8" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
10" or multiple meters of equivalent capacity
Volume Charqe Winter
Rates
Summer
Rates
For all water used less than 3CCF (100 cubic
Feet) (CCF)(1 CCF=748 gallons):
For all water used greater than 3CCF
$1.2872
$1.2873
$1.2872
$1.6090
Conditions of Contract:
The customer shall pay the total of the customer charge plus the volume charge.
The volume charge is based on all metered water for the billing period.
Consumption is expressed in hundred cubic foot units or thousand gallon units as
determined by the meter installed by the Company. The customer charge will be
prorated whenever the customer has not been a customer for the entire billing
period.
Summer Period
The summer rate will apply to water consumed between May 1 and September 30. Meter
readings straddling these dates will be prorated.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No.
Effective -
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road , Boise , Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 1 of 5
Sheet No.
Replacing all Previous Sheets
UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
SCHEDULE NO.
FLAT RATE SERVICE
Availability
To non-metered residential customers pursuant to Residential or Multi-Family
Housing Non-Contiguous Water Systems Agreement Paragraph 11 (a) addressing
flat rate systems.
Customer CharQes
Based on United Water Idaho residential consumption for the year ending
October 2005 of 186ccf, the average residential bill , assuming a :X" meter and
55% / 45% summer/winter split, is $ 374.76. Billed bi-monthly, equals $ 62.46.
Bi-monthly CharQe $ 62.46
Conditions of Contract:
The bi-monthly charge will be prorated whenever the customer has not been a
customer for the entire billing period. The Company or the customer may convert
to metered service pursuant to Subparagraphs (b) or (c) of Paragraph 11 as
follows:
(b)If Company should determine that a flat rate customer is using water in
excess of the average residential customer, the Company will provide a
meter setting and meter. Customer will then pay Company s metered tariff
rates as approved by the IPUC , which rates may be amended from time to
time.
(c)If a customer prefers to pay Company s approved metered tariff rates , thecustomer shall pay the installation and material costs associated with the
installation of a meter setting.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No.
Effective -
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise , Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 2 of 5
Sheet No.
Replacing all Previous Sheets
UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
SCHEDULE NO.
PUBLIC HYDRANTS AND STREET SPRINKLING
Availability
To the City of Boise and Ada County Highway District.
Rates:
Street Sprinklina Service
Flat Charge $228.45/Month
Miscellaneous:
Bills will be rendered monthly, bi-monthly, or at other intervals upon mutual
agreement of the Company and the customer.
Hydrants and service pipes from the fitting on the Company main to the hydrants
are to be installed and maintained by and at the expense of the City of Boise or
Ada County Highway District.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No,
Effective -
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 3 of 5
Sheet No.
Replacing all Previous Sheets
UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
SCHEDULE NO.
PRIVATE FIRE SPRINKLER AND SERVICE
Availability
To all customers who have sprinkler systems and/or inside hose connections for
fire fighting purposes.
Rate
For service through a separate line for fire fighting purposes.
For 3" service or smaller, per month
For 4" service per month
For 6" service per month
For 8" service per month
For 10" service per month
For 12" service per month
$ 15,
22.
56.
93.
145.45
217.
Miscellaneous:
Provided that if the installation of a private fire service shall require an extension of
the existing mains of the company, the cost of such extension shall be borne by the
customer.
All private fire services shall be equipped with sealed gate valves or thermal
automatic openings.
Meters may be placed on fire services by the utility at any time; however, metered
rates will not apply unless improper use of water is disclosed , and if such be the
case, usage will be billed to the consumer under Rate Schedule No.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No.
Effective -
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road, Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 4 of 5
Sheet No.
Replacing all Previous Sheets
UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
SCHEDULE NO.
PRIVATE FIRE HYDRANT SERVICE
Availability:
To all customers having private fire hydrant installations.
Rate
For fire hydrants installed and maintained by the customer at customer s expense:
Each fire hydrant, per month $ 9.
Miscellaneous:
Service pipe from the fitting on the company water main to the fire hydrant is to be
installed and maintained by the customer.
UNITED
Issued Per IPUC Order No.
Effective -
Issued by UNITED WATER IDAHO INC.
Gregory P. Wyatt, Vice President
8248 West Victory Road , Boise, Idaho
Exhibit 2
F. Gradilone
Schedule 2
Page 5 of 5